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Pattern Fabulous February

metwannabe said:
Yeah NAM and RGEM having none of it.... fv3 sucks Lol

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Agree, not much support from the high res stuff, but here is the EURO clown map. It does not carry anything as far east as FV3 but over here it lines up a bit. It is 55f here now so I say both are wrong. It is interesting that the EURO trended a good bit south on this one late in the game. 1550276447333.png
 
packfan98 said:
This is the best looking GEFS Mean we've had in a while. Keep looking out for Larry's posts. He's starting to sound a bit optimistic for the SE to get into a more favorable pattern that could give some of us a shot at winter precip. @GaWx
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Didn’t the gefs look good for the end of February then backed away?


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Arcc said:
Who needs models to tell you the butt freezing period through March and April is coming. Its as sure as sunrise, as is the immediate SE ridge pump in early May beggining four months of misery.
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Well, if 54º is butt freezing in Gainesville ... there's simply no way to get prepared ... LOL ... or toss the 18Z and hope against hope tomorrow ... :eek:
 
This is not an ice storm pattern for the CAD areas. I wouldn’t expect more than 0.1 to 0.2 glaze. Temps are too marginal and some areas have recently hit 80 degrees. Plus too much moisture and not enough dry cold air near the surface. Not to mention heavy rates. Sure a very localized spot may hit warning criteria but eh. Some snowy/wintry potential north and west but main threat is flash flooding next week.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Aren't we kind of getting to the point in the season where ice storms start to become pretty rare ? Seems like snow is usually much more likely late in the season than ice.
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Current special weather statements in the Virginia mountains notes warm ground and surfaces. Imagine further south.
 
In all seriousness, all it takes is snow on the ground to get a solid ice storm in March. I saw it with thunderstorms at 28 degrees a few years back and lights went out. The March sun did melt it by lunch time tho.
 
Nomanslandva said:
Agree, not much support from the high res stuff, but here is the EURO clown map. It does not carry anything as far east as FV3 but over here it lines up a bit. It is 55f here now so I say both are wrong. It is interesting that the EURO trended a good bit south on this one late in the game. View attachment 15796
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NAM coming in a little colder, might get your attention...
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Aren't we kind of getting to the point in the season where ice storms start to become pretty rare ? Seems like snow is usually much more likely late in the season than ice.
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Give credit where it's due. Based on what Larry has said in the past, you are 100% correct.
 
I used to like March as a snow month more than December until the past couple years. They both usually produce about the same imo
 
Snowflowxxl said:
I used to like March as a snow month more than December until the past couple years. They both usually produce about the same imo
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I guess it depends on where you live. Since 2006 December has been atrocious for snow in Middle Tennessee. Only good December was 2010. March on the other hand has produced a number of good snows here since 2006.
 
GaWx said:
Radiant this morning has raised KATL Feb even further to 54.9, which would be tied with 1927 for 3rd warmest Feb, behind only 2018 and 2017! Just a few days ago, they had KATL at 51.5. So, further warm adjustments are still possible, believe it or not, since the trend to warmer may not be done yet though I’m guessing it may be nearing its warmest. This 54.9 raises the projected DJF to 49.8, which would be THE warmest El Niño DJF on record. The current warmest is the 49.5 of 2015-6. This would also be the 10th warmest of 141 winters dating back to 1878-9, which is amazingly warm for a weak Modoki El Niño.
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It doesn't feel like it with all of the rain and cloudy days. :confused:
 
olhausen said:
I guess it depends on where you live. Since 2006 December has been atrocious for snow in Middle Tennessee. Only good December was 2010. March on the other hand has produced a number of good snows here since 2006.
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pretty much the same for me... best snow I remember in December was a barely White Christmas at 5pm one year in Bama lol

oh and snow the morning after the Tuscaloosa tornado in 2000 that was more surreal than anything

meanwhile the biggest snowstorms I've seen both here and there were in March
 
My biggest were December 2017 (about a foot) and March 1993 (16" I think?). I've seen several episodes of snow as well in March in addition to the blizzard of 93..and even have seen flurries a time or two in April. So, reality is, it can still fall from the sky in the next 30-45 days if it really wants to, especially in the upper parts of the SE say North of I-20.
 
Nomanslandva said:
38/38 Rain. Did not cut it but surprised we got that close. Looks like the weather stations at elevation south and west of town are close.
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43/39 here, when I went out for my run this morning it was 52. Noticeable change...

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No really good progress in the overnight models that I could see, although I haven’t seen the EPS past 240. (Is anything past 240 even worth looking at anyway?). But I assume if it was really good, it would have been discussed.

What a shame it has been to have such an active STJ this winter with almost no cold air to speak of. When all is said and done, we will have wasted over half of the winter above normal. We weren’t really far off from having a couple of nice events. In fact, I’ll bet that even an average winter temp-wise would have given many areas above average snowfall.

In the end, we will have squandered away what should have been a decent period, having only the distant memory of a rogue December storm as a bittersweet epilogue to a horribly disappointing winter season.
 
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