• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Fabulous February

I'd probably put the Euro Op in there instead of or alongside the EPS. An op vs an ensemble suite isn't really apples to apples, although it is still an interesting comparison. My guess is that the FV3 is overdone on the strength of the high, the duration of it locking in, and thus the strength and degree of the wedge. But we'll see!
 
Rain Cold said:
I'd probably put the Euro Op in there instead of or alongside the EPS. An op vs an ensemble suite isn't really apples to apples, although it is still an interesting comparison. My guess is that the FV3 is overdone on the strength of the high, the duration of it locking in, and thus the strength and degree of the wedge. But we'll see!
Click to expand...

Fair enough! Here is the 6z FV3 vs the Euro 3 run trend.

1549466324661.png

Euro 3 run trend
ecmwf_mslpa_us_fh144_trend.gif
 
Getting the feeling this will be similar to the ice event that effected NC a few weeks ago, some areas in the foothills got 0.5 of ice accretion, fv3 was actually a little to warm in that situation
 
I find it hard to believe, that the Fv3 will produce of WS with absolute no support for NC.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Getting the feeling this will be similar to the ice event that effected NC a few weeks ago, some areas in the foothills got 0.5 of ice accretion, fv3 was actually a little to warm in that situation
Click to expand...

Wasn’t it totally too cold over central NC though? It has snow/mix/ice over wake county and was almost certain over border counties such as Granville, and it was all cold rain.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Six Mile Wx said:
Click to expand...


So, in a nutshell, the first cluster (cold) is a -EPO with a +PNA while the 2nd one (warm) is a -EPO with a -PNA. What’s interesting is that the cold cluster has a +NAO whereas the warm one has a -NAO. Is that weird? Is it possible that a very strong -EPO with +PNA typically is cold only with a +NAO or is this just an unusual setup? I know that there is a pretty good correlation of -NAO to SE cold in general. But perhaps too much blocking from both the -EPO and -NAO sectors typically results in SE warmth instead of SE cold??? I’m just thinking out loud here and trying to generate discussion. One thing’s for certain: a +PNA is quite crucial.
 
Last edited:
Jon said:
Wasn’t it totally too cold over central NC though? It has snow/mix/ice over wake county and was almost certain over border counties such as Granville, and it was all cold rain.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

When it was 72+ hours out it actually had the storm track a bit far north, it also barely showed any ice for CAD areas and was warmer, but nearing the onset the fv3 shifted way colder, it actually showed some front end snow showers lol as time got closer C7861389-7696-4FD9-AF95-1E3DDDCEB506.png
 
GaWx said:
So, in a nutshell, the first cluster (cold) is a -EPO with a +PNA while the 2nd one (warm) is a -EPO with a -PNA. What’s interesting is that the cold cluster has a +NAO whereas the warm one has a -NAO. Is that weird? Is it possible that a very strong -EPO with +PNA typically is cold only with a +NAO or is this just an unusual setup? I know that there is a pretty good correlation of -NAO to SE cold in general. But perhaps too much blocking from both the -EPO and -NAO sectors typically results in SE warmth instead of SE cold??? I’m just thinking out loud here and trying to generate discussion. One thing’s for certain: a +PNA is quite crucial.
Click to expand...

It looks like it’s not a true -NAO to me and come verification it may not even be a -NAO. I truly do think it lies with the PNA as you said. I think the fake -NAO is in response to the -EPO/-PNA couplet, popping a SE ridge, leading to a trough over the northern Atlantic which in turn pops a -NAO downstream.

I’ve been watching that ridging to see if it’s possible to connect to the -EPO for a -EPO/+PNA look. I don’t have cluster data so it’s very interesting that the modeling as many members with this look.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Does anyone have an official date the GFS is replaced by the FV3? I'm looking forward to being able to view the "FV3" ensembles.
 
Shawn said:
Does anyone have an official date the GFS is replaced by the FV3? I'm looking forward to being able to view the "FV3" ensembles.
Click to expand...
Last I heard was March something. Also, the ensembles are not going to change at the same time, so we will be stuck with the old GEFS for a while longer.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top