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Pattern Fabulous February

metwannabe said:
Yeah NAM and RGEM having none of it.... fv3 sucks Lol

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Agree, not much support from the high res stuff, but here is the EURO clown map. It does not carry anything as far east as FV3 but over here it lines up a bit. It is 55f here now so I say both are wrong. It is interesting that the EURO trended a good bit south on this one late in the game. 1550276447333.png
 
packfan98 said:
This is the best looking GEFS Mean we've had in a while. Keep looking out for Larry's posts. He's starting to sound a bit optimistic for the SE to get into a more favorable pattern that could give some of us a shot at winter precip. @GaWx
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Didn’t the gefs look good for the end of February then backed away?


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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
It’s always been 300hr stuff. Nothing really hinting at pattern change til the last 24 hours. Good downstream changes inside 200hr
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I know that i got confused by the end of February part, probably meant end of Jan but yeah First week of March in my opinion is a chance to score
 
Arcc said:
Who needs models to tell you the butt freezing period through March and April is coming. Its as sure as sunrise, as is the immediate SE ridge pump in early May beggining four months of misery.
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Well, if 54º is butt freezing in Gainesville ... there's simply no way to get prepared ... LOL ... or toss the 18Z and hope against hope tomorrow ... :eek:
 
This is not an ice storm pattern for the CAD areas. I wouldn’t expect more than 0.1 to 0.2 glaze. Temps are too marginal and some areas have recently hit 80 degrees. Plus too much moisture and not enough dry cold air near the surface. Not to mention heavy rates. Sure a very localized spot may hit warning criteria but eh. Some snowy/wintry potential north and west but main threat is flash flooding next week.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Aren't we kind of getting to the point in the season where ice storms start to become pretty rare ? Seems like snow is usually much more likely late in the season than ice.
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Current special weather statements in the Virginia mountains notes warm ground and surfaces. Imagine further south.
 
In all seriousness, all it takes is snow on the ground to get a solid ice storm in March. I saw it with thunderstorms at 28 degrees a few years back and lights went out. The March sun did melt it by lunch time tho.
 
Nomanslandva said:
Agree, not much support from the high res stuff, but here is the EURO clown map. It does not carry anything as far east as FV3 but over here it lines up a bit. It is 55f here now so I say both are wrong. It is interesting that the EURO trended a good bit south on this one late in the game. View attachment 15796
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NAM coming in a little colder, might get your attention...
 
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