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Pattern Fabulous February

12z Euro looked like it holds on to the cold in the long range. I didn’t like seeing the warmer air on the models towards the end of the runs the last few days. After that fabulous February of 2015 the last two February’s have been a mess. I really hope we can have at least a near normal February this year and hopefully below normal.

Edit: I forgot we have had 3 February’s since 2015. I believe the 2016 February was ok or at least better then the last 2.
 
olhausen said:
12z Euro looked like it holds on to the cold in the long range. I didn’t like seeing the warmer air on the models towards the end of the runs the last few days. After that fabulous February of 2015 the last two February’s have been a mess. I really hope we can have at least a near normal February this year and hopefully below normal.
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The block north of AK, if it remains in place and disconnected from the western ridge for a long time will do us no favors. It needs to do its thing and weaken on off.
 
EPS improving

Day 15 from yesterday vs day 14 from today

Still hoping our chances come mid Feb to early March

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The MJO forecasts keep upping the amps and delaying the return to the COD. Whereas as of last week, the GEFS/EPS has a low amp that returned to the COD 1/26-7, today’s forecasts have a higher amp that is still outside the COD through 2/6. Frustrating to follow these. The GEFS is way different from just yesterday, which had it curl back into the right side of the COD before 2/5!
 
“once the pattern reloads on both the weeklies and cfs the ridge axis out west is still too far west to work without the NAO part. I am not sure where this is going but I’m very confident that the idea that “we can make this workable somehow without the NAO” isn’t going to happen. Everything indicates the ridge axis in the pac is likely to remain west of where we need it absent blocking. No blocking no dice. So when I hear people talking about being skeptical that the NAO helps but being “ok” with that I have my doubts. I really think we need the NAO or we are going to continue this cutter pattern.” this is from PSUHoffman a very knowledgeable MA poster

This is kind of where I’m at right now as well
 
Well, guess we will have to see if the great pattern for winter storms that was hyped up for the last two weeks of January will produce in February or just be hype. It has been the latter for NC so far. Glad we got the big storm in early December here. But the bad thing about that it seems we can't get more than one big storm here each winter, and for some reason most of the time when we get that big storm we don't get anything else here for the rest of winter.
 
Euro showing potential at the first of February. Interesting. looking at MSLP its similar to 26-28 event atm with low getting shoved south then trying to run the coast
 
Folks are going to love, love, love the 12Z EPS for 2/4+ as a +PNA gets reestablished just in time for peak climo snowfall for much of the SE, especially deep south. Remember when some models were suggesting -PNA then? Maybe being helped by the weak El Nino and colder MJO phases.
 
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