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Pattern Fabulous February

GaWx said:
And there it is folks. that high to the north means business! This is what could happen around 2/1-3. The ZR on this is major. That isn't snow in SE GA/coastal SC. That is mainly ZR I think..
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You are correct:
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whatalife said:
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Well ----. Lol
 
GaWx said:
And there it is folks. that high to the north means business! This is what could happen around 2/1-3.
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I've learned from many years reading his posts on American WX as well as his current posts on this forum that when "Larry starts crowing get the snow blowers going!" He has an uncanny ability to call out winter storms for the SE well in advance based on his vast knowledge of weather history for this area. He has a better than average track record for storms in the 7-10 day range. Not to take anything away from Delta, Webb, 1300m, etc. but for a non-professional, I take extra notice when Larry starts honing in on pattern trends and dates. So, Larry let us know when you officially go into "crowing mode!" Please move to banter if needed.
 
Fyi, the GFS is consistently trending southward with the big PV lobe later next week which favors even colder air getting closer to the SE US. Having some snow cover on the ground from the preceding arctic front (or coastal low if you're in eastern NC) would certainly help produce bitterly cold, possibly record breaking cold temperatures if this trend were to continue.

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I've got a very weird feeling with this early February thing that if we see it work it's going to trend a bit north and wind up being an ice storm for areas in East Central Georgia through the midlands. Just a gut feeling really, would be happy to be wrong but we'll see, don't think we've really had any trends though except storms appearing off and on, but this period does seem to have some legs as a pattern breakdown storm.

Larry's already tried to make a call btw this winter, hopefully this call brings it.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
I've got a very weird feeling with this early February thing that if we see it work it's going to trend a bit north and wind up being an ice storm for areas in East Central Georgia through the midlands. Just a gut feeling really, would be happy to be wrong but we'll see, don't think we've really had any trends though except storms appearing off and on, but this period does seem to have some legs as a pattern breakdown storm.

Larry's already tried to make a call btw this winter, hopefully this call brings it.
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I don't know if there were to be something major the rest of winter for much of the forum that it would be during this period. Climo/history peak has actually been a bit further into Feb than this fwiw. But I do know that this high is progged to have the coldest temps in Chicago and good chuck of the Midwest in many years by a good margin and that it obviously will very likely be the coldest of the entire winter. When there is an a very rare extremely cold Midwest high that doesn't plunge down into the SE with bitter and dry NW winds but instead sort of skims the SE with the bottom of the very cold via cold enough for trouble NE winds/wedge, that's a recipe for a potential rare deep SE major wintry event including major ZR. That being said, the odds are high nothing like this will be on the next run.
 
GaWx said:
I don't know if there were to be something major the rest of winter for much of the forum that it would be during this period. Climo/history peak has actually been a bit further into Feb than this fwiw. But I do know that this high is progged to have the coldest temps in Chicago and good chuck of the Midwest in many years by a good margin and that it obviously will very likely be the coldest of the entire winter. When there is an a very rare extremely cold Midwest high that doesn't plunge down into the SE with bitter and dry NW winds but instead sort of skims the SE with the bottom of the very cold via cold enough for trouble NE winds/wedge, that's a recipe for a potential rare deep SE major wintry event including major ZR. That being said, the odds are high nothing like this will be on the next run.
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In other words, about a "1" on the crow meter! Don't worry, Larry...if we have to wait until later in the month for peak climo to get a deep south snow or ice event, it'll be worth it!
 
Cute little wave trying to get its act together in the northern Gulf on this GFS run by the 31st, our primary wave that could trigger an overrunning event in the Feb 1-3 timeframe is entering stage left as the big cold vortex departs. It really is a classic setup for a nice southern US event in a general sense, just need to get the pieces in the right places at the right time.


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Webberweather53 said:
Cute little wave trying to get its act together in the northern Gulf on this GFS run by the 31st, our primary wave that could trigger an overrunning event in the Feb 1-3 timeframe is entering stage left as the big cold vortex departs. It really is a classic setup for a nice southern US event in a general sense, just need to get the pieces in the right places at the right time.


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Lots of moisture pooling along the old front on the FV3. Just need the wave.

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GaWx & Stormsfury are really good when it comes to rare deep south events in the medium-long term. If you're around the CAE and South, pay close attention to their posts for sure. They know this area well.
 
You really got to like this look, especially if your east of the apps, nice 50/50 low feature, ensembles continue to hint at some storm late next week during this time, what a good look that is, also with that western ridge, I would not be surprised if there is a winter storm at this timeframe then things switch back to average, but this setup kinda resembles the first week of December at H56EABBB15-D704-442A-9146-9A62F1910943.png
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
I've got a very weird feeling with this early February thing that if we see it work it's going to trend a bit north and wind up being an ice storm for areas in East Central Georgia through the midlands. Just a gut feeling really, would be happy to be wrong but we'll see, don't think we've really had any trends though except storms appearing off and on, but this period does seem to have some legs as a pattern breakdown storm.

Larry's already tried to make a call btw this winter, hopefully this call brings it.
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Could be my fabled sleet storm :) Doesn't have to be zr.
 
I hate to be that guy and while I don’t think this will be an extended torch it is what it is. Western ridge will go back up some time around the 2nd or 3rd week in February..not that it has helped us at all anyway
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Yep, if I’m not mistaken is that a 50/50 low at the very top right of the map Webb? Also i think already that this storm would have more qpf due to it being likely more southern stream and we know how the southern stream has been
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yep, if I’m not mistaken is that a 50/50 low at the very top right of the map Webb? Also i think already that this storm would have more qpf due to it being likely more southern stream and we know how the southern stream has been
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Yes, we have a deep vortex in that spot, the wave over the Lakes squashes the wave as it emerges from the southern plains and northern Gulf. We either want this wave to slow down & dig southwestward, have a stronger/slower southern wave to work w/ from the beginning or for this Lakes s/w to get out of the way quicker. The current look verbatim is the worst timing-wise between these two features but we have a little over a week to figure this out.
 
High getting weaker and still suppressed! Was 1040+ yesterday! 4D3A7C51-C2B5-4642-BDB2-D21FD5FE3743.png
 
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What are the chances this trends northwest. Seems like most people most realistic chance


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Some of the GEFS members are trying to give it a whirl before we really moderate for the first of the month. It's a mixed bag. (edit: I'd say 10 of 20 try)
 
Looking longer range, I get the feeling the next 2 weeks or so are it for this winter - seems milder 240+ hrs out on ensembles
 
ajr said:
Looking longer range, I get the feeling the next 2 weeks or so are it for this winter - seems milder 240+ hrs out on ensembles
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We're punting for a while after there possibly being a chance early in the month. Question is if we can get things to reload after a week or if the pacific jet wakes up and blasts all of the cold air out of the US again. If we can get to 6-7-8 before the MJO stalls (probably more like 6-7), the next shot will be when we get the response to that in 2 weeks. If we can't and/or the pacific jet does it's thing, turn out the lights for most of us.
 
I expect the cold pattern to last into mid March with perhaps a 7 day period of normal temps being the only time we won't be below normal compared to the averages. After March 1st it will be much tougher for areas of Ga and even SC to cash in as the averages shoot up pretty quick in late Feb. In NC and TN (and parts of NW SC) however snow is very possible into mid or late March. I would show the EPS weeklies for the next 6 weeks to verify this but can't because it is a pay site, maybe next week.
 
The weeklies weeks 2-4, have been looking great, for the last 2-4 weeks, and not really panned out!
 
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