snowlover91
Member
Any idea what mechanism is locking it in place on the fv3?
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Pattern Fabulous February
- Thread starter PEA_RIDGE
- Start date
Well here is my latest NWS forecast. looks like a lot of RAIN COLD......................... lol
SUNDAY NIGHT...Rain likely. Not as cool with lows in the mid 30s. Chance of rain 70 percent. .MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...Rain. Highs in the mid 40s. Lows in the mid 30s. Chance of rain 80 percent. .TUESDAY...Rain likely. Highs in the lower 40s. Chance of rain 70 percent. .TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Rain likely, mainly in the evening. Near steady temperature in the upper 30s. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Hard to get Ice with those temps! Of course if it looks like it may be cold enough come Saturday they will trim the temps back, play catch up like usual......
Hard to get Ice with those temps! Of course if it looks like it may be cold enough come Saturday they will trim the temps back, play catch up like usual......
packfan98
Moderator
No. I didn’t study it in detail. There may be some confluence.
There are two separate storms with the Fv3 one is sheered and one is the main low from out west which is weak as well keeping it south enough to not break that CAD connection
It has extensively moved and weakened the HP/Signature. This area of SC (CAE) no longer is ground zero with 1 + inches of ZR. We now have 0 on the 18z. That is a huge change vs the 12z FV3.
Cad Wedge NC
Member
We have ourselves a model war ..... who will blink first? I got this feeling in my gut that I already how this movie ends. Truth be told, with that much qpf, I am rooting for frozen vs. freezing.
snowlover91
Member
The 12z FV3 was a cold outlier compared with its previous runs though which focused the ice in NC. The 18z run seems to be more in line with its other runs so hard to tell if this is a shift that will continue or just noise.
And l look for that trend to keep pushing north with each run until it's N Mid Atlantic and NE Ice Storm....................... That we all know has the only chance as of right now. MUST have some other models on board to even consider taking it serious! IMO
Cad Wedge NC
Member
In all fairness, I have been expecting a north trend all week and it hasn't happened yet. It's getting weird now. Something has the FV3 confused. I guess we will know soon enough.
pcbjr
Member
With all of this, what could go wrong and what's to lose? Going to the local Kangaroo station to buy a ton of scratch off lottery tickets ...
Bye ...
Bye ...
snowlover91
Member
I now see 5 GEFS members with ice in NC and a 6th one that has some briefly in extreme northern areas.
snowlover91
Member
GEFS also came in significantly stronger with the HP.
snowlover91
Member
FV3 the past 4 runs.
Cad Wedge NC
Member
Don't look at the Carolinas. Instead, look at the south trend of that low from Kansas to Mississippi.
snowlover91
Member
Yeah that feature is pretty interesting and also that it’s stronger with the HP and in the same area basically. Other than the 12z run today the other 3 runs are remarkably similar with the snow/ice transition zone.
Cad Wedge NC
Member
Just looked at some soundings..... very deep warm nose (+2C to +3C) with low 20's at the surface for hours with heavy precip. Color me skeptical....
pcbjr
Member
Perhaps more aptly ... concerned?
Pretty classic ice storm sounding if we were to ever get a classic damming high
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I just woke up lol, FV saying a miller B transfer or I’m seeing things, @Rain Cold @Jimmy Hypocracy FV is saying that y’all were right about this upcoming pattern and a miller b storm ?
If the high is that strong or stronger and near the lakes and either stationary or drifting east, the low will continue to shift farther south as we move in. Then it will reform farther south on the other side of the wedge. It will not cut very much and it will definitely not reform in central NC in the middle of the wedge.
HOWEVER, the model shows that the high just sits up there and doesn’t move. That is extremely unlikely. The mechanism for providing confluence is a lobe of the PV that moves through the 50/50 position and lifts slowly out. I would expect that in real life, the confluence zone will lift out as the PV lobe moves northeast, due to the lack of blocking, which will cause the high to weaken and lift northeast.
HOWEVER, the model shows that the high just sits up there and doesn’t move. That is extremely unlikely. The mechanism for providing confluence is a lobe of the PV that moves through the 50/50 position and lifts slowly out. I would expect that in real life, the confluence zone will lift out as the PV lobe moves northeast, due to the lack of blocking, which will cause the high to weaken and lift northeast.