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Pattern Fabulous February

I don't think there is any question that there is a cool down in early March. But how much of a cool down and does it coincide with moisture?

Right now it looks cold and dry. And somewhat fleeting...
 
Delta Thunder said:
I don't think there is any question that there is a cool down in early March. But how much of a cool down and does it coincide with moisture?

Right now it looks cold and dry. And somewhat fleeting...
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This doesn't look dry at all esp for an ENS mean 300 hours out that's very dispersed.

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Delta Thunder said:
Agree that it does not look dry for the Southeast... but for the areas near and above a Dallas to Grenada to Nashville line it looks pretty dry.
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I wouldn't read that much detail into the models this far out and assume a threat couldn't materialize from this pattern anywhere in the SE US just because it looks kinda dry in your backyard on the models atm.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I wouldn't read that much detail into the models this far out and assume a threat couldn't materialize from this pattern anywhere in the SE US just because it looks kinda dry in your backyard on the models atm.
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You are correct. Many times these things trend far to the northwest. I would not be surprised if the arctic front stalls between I-40 and I-20.
 
Once central Pacific forcing abates, the favored pattern over the North Pacific-North America-North Atlantic sector is for eastward extension of the Aleutian low, NE Pacific ridge migrates into Alaska and/or NW Canada w/ a -NAO. We'll end up w/ some variation of this in early march that's skewed more towards a -EPO/+NAO, but it's a pattern we can score something substantial in during early March or the last day or two of February.

The favored window for us to score here is probably somewhere around Feb 27-Mar 7 (& beyond into mid March ?)
Screen Shot 2019-02-18 at 3.41.05 PM.png

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Webberweather53 said:
Once central Pacific forcing abates, the favored pattern over the North Pacific-North America-North Atlantic sector is for eastward extension of the Aleutian low, NE Pacific ridge migrates into Alaska and/or NW Canada w/ a -NAO. We'll end up w/ some variation of this in early march that's skewed more towards a -EPO/+NAO, but it's a pattern we can score something substantial in during early March or the last day or two of February.

The favored window for us to score here is probably somewhere around Feb 27-Mar 7 (& beyond into mid March ?)
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-EPO/+NAO is decent, that argues for a sheared southern stream storm, setups like that has done well in the southeast, I like a -NAO but if we get a southern wave it would likely amp up due to the -NAO, nice to see a actual favorable pattern again
 
Webberweather53 said:
Once central Pacific forcing abates, the favored pattern over the North Pacific-North America-North Atlantic sector is for eastward extension of the Aleutian low, NE Pacific ridge migrates into Alaska and/or NW Canada w/ a -NAO. We'll end up w/ some variation of this in early march that's skewed more towards a -EPO/+NAO, but it's a pattern we can score something substantial in during early March or the last day or two of February.

The favored window for us to score here is probably somewhere around Feb 27-Mar 7 (& beyond into mid March ?)
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View attachment 15924
Click to expand...

Hope you are right, because it has been so boring here the last two plus months.
 
Nice little surprise throughout last night and this morning with sleet showers. 36 degrees out and slowly falling still with a 32dp. Nothing major of course with it still in the mid 30s, just unexpected.


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Crazy weather today. Went from sleeting this morning at 35, to warming to 45, then thunder storms training over me and now it’s pouring again at 39. Lawd! I haven’t seen rain this heavy since Irma.


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Fwiw the Euro has some snow about 7 days out for Western NC. The system hits during the middle of the day, I imagine if the timing was a little different and we can get the upper levels to cool some this could be a nice storm for a good chunk of NC. Something worth watching.

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It took much of the day, but the sun came out at 4pm and the temp is now 73*F.

It's fairly humid too, with a dewpoint of 67*F
 
Currently 73*F here with a W/SW wind, a dewpoint of 68*F and overcast skies

Back door cold front is nearby though. Areas just to the NE are seeing a stiff NE wind and fog with temps barely eclipsing 60*F.
 
Greensboro: 46 with Rain currently

So far for February Greensboro is 4 degrees above normal. We ended up Dec a +1.2 and Jan about the same a 1.3ish. So however you slice it we will end up D,J,F met winter 2018/2019 about 2.5 above normal.

Snowfall climo will end up+150%.
 
SouthATLwx said:
Currently 73*F here with a W/SW wind, a dewpoint of 68*F and overcast skies

Back door cold front is nearby though. Areas just to the NE are seeing a stiff NE wind and fog with temps barely eclipsing 60*F.
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77*F now. Clouds are breaking up.
 
I think we do have a very slight possibility at a storm at 192 but it has to phase just right which most likely won’t happen but something to watch in the coming days for a “pop-up” storm. Then we have our 3-4 system and another possible 5-8 system... I think we have plenty of storm chances to track and remember each storm effects the other so u til we get correct info for the first we won’t know anything about the others
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
I think we do have a very slight possibility at a storm at 192 but it has to phase just right which most likely won’t happen but something to watch in the coming days for a “pop-up” storm. Then we have our 3-4 system and another possible 5-8 system... I think we have plenty of storm chances to track and remember each storm effects the other so u til we get correct info for the first we won’t know anything about the others
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My goodness. Snow will be piling up. Snow on top of snow perhaps?
 
Temps look really strange in GA today. 64 in ATL, 80 in Newnan, and 59 in Carrollton. If it is a wedge, how is ATL warmer than Carrollton ? Carrollton is always warmer than ATL during wedges since its so far west and Carrollton is usually warmer than Newnan since Newnan is further east, even though its 21 degrees warmer in Newnan right now. Or maybe its not a wedge?
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Temps look really strange in GA today. 64 in ATL, 80 in Newnan, and 59 in Carrollton. If it is a wedge, how is ATL warmer than Carrollton ? Carrollton is always warmer than ATL during wedges since its so far west and Carrollton is usually warmer than Newnan since Newnan is further east, even though its 21 degrees warmer in Newnan right now.
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FWIW, Atlanta Falcon field (Peachtree City) is at 79*F and Lagrange is also at 80*F, in case you were wondering if the ASOS is out of whack.

Carrollton is higher up in elevation than Newnan, so that could be a factor.
 
54 here where I am and about a county south of me its 78 lol. If it's not gonna snow, give me the 78 please.... thanks!
 
I was in Stockbridge around lunch time and it was 71( truck reading). had to drive to Buford . My temp went from 71 to 50. It was pretty cool to feel the wedge.


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