• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Fabulous February

ForsythSnow said:
Yeah that makes a difference. Also that shows the FV3 really is garbage at H5 with a heavy bias a majority of the time and as of lately. With that said, kiss that system goodbye because the FV3 is lost it seems. A -15 bias is quite a large cold bias.
Click to expand...

Yeah it is a pretty large difference compared with the other globals. What I wish we had was bias maps that focused on specific areas, like one for North America, Europe, etc. The WPC lately has been going with a blend of the GFS/Euro which would give us a 1038-1039 high sliding off the coast and wouldn't work in this setup. The UK actually seems to be performing the best of all models right now at the 5h level. It certainly will be interesting to see how this all plays out, I'd say another 1-2 days and it should become pretty clear which camp is on the right track.
 
snowlover91 said:
Yeah it is a pretty large difference compared with the other globals. What I wish we had was bias maps that focused on specific areas, like one for North America, Europe, etc. The WPC lately has been going with a blend of the GFS/Euro which would give us a 1038-1039 high sliding off the coast and wouldn't work in this setup. The UK actually seems to be performing the best of all models right now at the 5h level. It certainly will be interesting to see how this all plays out, I'd say another 1-2 days and it should become pretty clear which camp is on the right track.
Click to expand...

We have a ways to go before we may have one last opportunity at winter weather imo. People are believing the fv3gfs because it has only been showing any chance at winter weather. If mjo goes into more better phases, then we see at that point if it even makes a difference, but we have some time to go to get there imo
 
  • Like
Reactions: IWC
It's the 84 hour nam so take it FWIW but it has a 1053 HP dropping down whereas the Euro is 1045mb for the same time (per weather.us maps). That's a pretty significant difference and aligns with the FV3/GFS idea of a stronger HP dropping down. Of course they could be overdoing the HP strength too so it will be important to see how this adjusts in future runs but just thought it is worth noting.
1549486507393.png

I also compared the 32km NAM initialization from the 18z run with it's 84 hour forecast to see if there was any significant differences noted. Here is how the 18z initialized.
1549486595400.png

And here was the 84 hour forecast. It's interesting that verification actually produced a STRONGER HP in both areas vs what it modeled in the extended range. How this plays out for our upcoming system will be interesting to see, there is a clear disconnect between the Euro vs the GFS/FV3/NAM camp in regards to the HP strength for our system on the 11-12th.
1549486619584.png
 
This storm will either prove that the Fv3 can detect these types of storms well in advance or prove that it shouldn’t be released as a public model until they fixed its vital flaws... this is entering the medium range now and the fact that it’s still showing it says it either knows what it’s doing and the other globals are playing catch up or it can’t be trusted ever
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
This storm will either prove that the Fv3 can detect these types of storms well in advance or prove that it shouldn’t be released as a public model until they fixed its vital flaws... this is entering the medium range now and the fact that it’s still showing it says it either knows what it’s doing and the other globals are playing catch up or it can’t be trusted ever
Click to expand...

It's not just the FV3 though, the GFS is very close to the FV3 with the HP position and strength as well and the NAM would seem to indicate the same. On the other hand you have the ICON, CMC, Euro and UK all with a much weaker HP in the mid 1030s which makes a big difference for potential impacts/CAD. This is the first storm I think we've tracked where the FV3 is all alone so I'm very interested to see which model camp caves. I agree if the FV3 ends up caving to the Euro it will be a pretty bad look for it.
 
It appears the north trend on FV3 has begun. Frozen precip is still confined to NC at 141
 
I would go with a "middle of the road" approach for now. At least regarding the high pressure strength.
 
gfs_wnatl_162_dom_precip_type.gif
 
And looks like it barely moved ... still the general look of a major CAD ice storm continues along with a good north east storm too
 
The wedge only takes about 19 hours to dig down into the upstate and this is still the snowmap result..NEXT
 
Ice storm with over 2" of qpf. Not likely. It looked as if the cold air should have lifted north, but the 1042ish high locked in place instead of lifting out like other models.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top