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Pattern Fabulous February

I don't trust the GFS on CAD depiction ever, but it's likely better to side with what the Euro says than hopes and dreams.
 
Rain Cold said:
Which makes sense if the high is indeed weaker, farther NE, and sliding out.
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Correct, the question is which suite will do a better job with the HP strength/speed? The GFS and FV3 both have a slower 1040+ HP and the Euro has a weaker one. It's interesting the FV3 shifted south and maintained the strength of the HP while the Euro was weaker this run.
 
Ugh still left waiting to see who wants to cave first ... looked like euro was trending toward Fv3 then Fv3 went colder and euro went opposite .. 18z hold strong ??Please
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
I don't trust the GFS on CAD depiction ever, but it's likely better to side with what the Euro says than hopes and dreams.
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If the FV3s depiction of the high is correct, the CAD is probably underdone at this point. But, I'm in agreement that without the Euro onboard, this is a hard one to believe.
snowlover91 said:
Correct, the question is which suite will do a better job with the HP strength/speed? The GFS and FV3 both have a slower 1040+ HP and the Euro has a weaker one. It's interesting the FV3 shifted south and maintained the strength of the HP while the Euro was weaker this run.
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My expectation would be that the Euro would steadily inch toward the GFS if that is the correct solution. That it stepped the other way isn't a good sign. It's not a dagger yet either. We'll have to wait a couple more cycles. By then, we should begin to notice some trends taking shape.
 
If I remember correctly, for the last couple of days, WPC has been throwing out the extended range Euro with it's more progressive look. Fwiw.
 
I think it's worth noting the GEFS has a WIDE range of possible outcomes in relation to the HP strength/position. I see ones as weak as 1025mb and as strong as 1049mb on this map. The disagreement in both HP strength and location tells me there is a wide range of possibilities and that both the Euro and FV3/GFS ideas are plausible solutions for now.
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MJO still on track to roll around to Phase 8, 1, 2. The Euro actually takes the short route, while the GFS amps it up to ridiculous levels again. If we just blend the two, we should be in Phase 8 in about 10ish days. The models will start to recognize this and "catch up" with their depictions of the pattern. I still expect more ridging to show out west and colder air in the east. The EPO looks to be solidly negative. The PNA is progged to rise to neutral, with some members positive. The AO goes positive and then back toward negative, and the NAO is neutralish. I kind of expect to come in one day and see the PNA shoot positive on the chart, as opposed to slowly heading in that direction over a month.

Overall, I'm still encouraged about where we're headed, even though we're getting toward the end of the season. There's still plenty of time. #backloaded

ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif
GFS.jpg
 
Rain Cold said:
MJO still on track to roll around to Phase 8, 1, 2. The Euro actually takes the short route, while the GFS amps it up to ridiculous levels again. If we just blend the two, we should be in Phase 8 in about 10ish days. The models will start to recognize this and "catch up" with their depictions of the pattern. I still expect more ridging to show out west and colder air in the east. The EPO looks to be solidly negative. The PNA is progged to rise to neutral, with some members positive. The AO goes positive and then back toward negative, and the NAO is neutralish. I kind of expect to come in one day and see the PNA shoot positive on the chart, as opposed to slowly heading in that direction over a month.

Overall, I'm still encouraged about where we're headed, even though we're getting toward the end of the season. There's still plenty of time. #backloaded

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View attachment 15150
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It's nice to see we are headed out of the toilet bowl finally. With that look it might be enough to convince me we still have a small chance.
 
ForsythSnow said:
It's nice to see we are headed out of the toilet bowl finally. With that look it might be enough to convince me we still have a small chance.
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It has snowed in CAE in April before. I understand many think Winter is over as of March 01st, but that's simply not the truth, especially in the upper portions of the SE. There have been some huge events even towards mid March! Anyone in NC remembers a very specific one, in fact. ;)
 
snowlover91 said:
Here's a chart showing 5h bias for the major globals through day 5. If I'm reading this correctly it would seem the GFS and FV3 are the two best performing models inside 5 days right now?
View attachment 15151
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To me the Euro seems to be the most consistent in terms of having the least bias and the CMC seems too highly biased. The FV3 seems to be average a lower bias, so in a sense it's got a slight cold bias at H5. The last couple of days it's been close, but I'd go with the averaging of the biases over the last week or so to get a general idea.
 
ForsythSnow said:
To me the Euro seems to be the most consistent in terms of having the least bias and the CMC seems too highly biased. The FV3 seems to be average a lower bias, so in a sense it's got a slight cold bias at H5. The last couple of days it's been close, but I'd go with the averaging of the biases over the last week or so to get a general idea.
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Here's the chart again, I think I accidentally posted the southern hemisphere one originally. Based on this it would seem the top 3 currently are the Euro, UK and GFS with the FV3 struggling recently.
1549482098310.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
The GFS and FV3 both suffer more from boundary layer decoupling over snowcover even more so compared to the Euro which contributes to the beastly highs on these models vs the more tame Euro solution
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I'm a little surprised that they didn't fix the decoupling issue with the new FV3. Is this the same reason that the GFS gets crazy strong with the pressure drops on the hurricanes? It doesn't pick up on what's going on at the surface. Is this something that will be fixed in future years?
 
snowlover91 said:
Here's the chart again, I think I accidentally posted the southern hemisphere one originally. Based on this it would seem the top 3 currently are the Euro, UK and GFS with the FV3 struggling recently.
View attachment 15153
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Yeah that makes a difference. Also that shows the FV3 really is garbage at H5 with a heavy bias a majority of the time and as of lately. With that said, kiss that system goodbye because the FV3 is lost it seems. A -15 bias is quite a large cold bias.
 
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