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Pattern Fabulous February

Decent look that will probably disappear next run, this look favors cyclogenesis off the nc/sc/fl coast, also a decent western ridge and a PV lobe to keep things suppressed, like I said it will be gone next run View attachment 15859
This look has been hanging out past 360 off and on for a while. Good to see it getting near 300. Will be really exciting when we get it to less than 10 days.
 
The longer term definitely looks a lot more interesting than it did several days ago.

It's about time a trough over eastern Russia/Kamchatka Peninsula dug and amplified in the north-central Pacific. I'd also keep an eye on this tropical cyclone over the NW Pacific, it doesn't seem apt to undergo exquisite extratropical transition but its westerly momentum deposition into the Pacific jet will alter the wave train downstream in the NE Pacific & North America at the end of February/beginning of March.

Amplifying the NE Pacific ridge into Alaska leaves little room for an in between solution in our neck of the woods as pieces of the polar vortex are dislodged and come roaring southward into Canada and the northern US.

I definitely want another crack at this -EPO/+TNH pattern, the same one that nearly produced 2 events for the board in mid-late January but came up short by a slim margin both times. Big difference now will obviously be the cold shots are liable to be a little less overbearing & therefore likely less inclined to suppress the southern stream.
ecmwf_z500a_npac_8.png
 
The CAD underestimation for ATL is as true as ever. 5 days ago models had us pushing 60. We are stuck at a raw 47°.


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The longer term definitely looks a lot more interesting than it did several days ago.

It's about time a trough over eastern Russia/Kamchatka Peninsula dug and amplified in the north-central Pacific. I'd also keep an eye on this tropical cyclone over the NW Pacific, it doesn't seem apt to undergo exquisite extratropical transition but its westerly momentum deposition into the Pacific jet will alter the wave train downstream in the NE Pacific & North America at the end of February/beginning of March.

Amplifying the NE Pacific ridge into Alaska leaves little room for an in between solution in our neck of the woods as pieces of the polar vortex are dislodged and come roaring southward into Canada and the northern US.

I definitely want another crack at this -EPO/+TNH pattern, the same one that nearly produced 2 events for the board in mid-late January but came up short by a slim margin both times. Big difference now will obviously be the cold shots are liable to be a little less overbearing & therefore likely less inclined to suppress the southern stream.
View attachment 15865

Overall point here is that the clock hasn't struck midnight on this winter yet imo.
The entire board still has plenty of time to come up with one last big drive in the 4th quarter of our winter especially if this pattern comes to fruition.
 
I'll take my chances again w/ this look.

It's grown more impressive and propagated forward in time on NWP & w/ tropical forcing finally moving out of the central Pacific, it makes sense we could see one more legitimate window of opportunity for wintry wx across the board at the end of February/beginning of March.

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I'll take my chances again w/ this look.

It's grown more impressive and propagated forward in time on NWP & w/ tropical forcing finally moving out of the central Pacific, it makes sense we could see one more legitimate window of opportunity for wintry wx across the board at the end of February/beginning of March.

View attachment 15866
Got any big dog storm analogs for a look like that?
 
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I know I promised to reanalyze this storm on the other thread, so in light of the 50 year anniversary here it is!

What an amazing storm.


View attachment 15843
Here are some pics. of the February 1969 snowstorm. My earliest snowstorm memory. I remember my parents had just returned home from Hawaii prior to the onset of the storm.
February 1969 - I.jpgFebruary 1969 - II.jpgFebruary 1969 - III.jpgFebruary 1969 - IV.jpgFebruary 1969 - V.jpg
 
Overall point here is that the clock hasn't struck midnight on this winter yet imo.
The entire board still has plenty of time to come up with one last big drive in the 4th quarter of our winter especially if this pattern comes to fruition.

I'd say for even far SE peeps like @pcbjr, @Stormsfury and myself and even though I know the odds are always low, there's still one last less than very remote chance in the first week of March based on history for at least a little wintry precip. After that it becomes a very remote chance. My point is that the first week in March is still very much considered by my me to be winter even down here from my perspective. Actually, we're quite overdue here for late winter wintry with absolutely none (not even a T) having fallen even nearby after Feb 13th since way back in 1994, a 25 year drought! Looking before 1994 for events Feb 14th or later (many of these just a trace), they occurred in 1993, 1991, 1989, 1986, 1983, 1980, 1979, 1977, 1969, 1968 (3 T events), 1965, 1959, 1955, 1954, 1952, 1920, 1914, 1901, 1896, 1895, 1890, and 1889. The last week in Feb and Mar events, alone, were in 1993, 1989, 1986, 1983, 1980, 1968 (2 T events), 1965, 1959, 1955, 1954, 1952, 1920, 1914, 1901, and 1890 with 5 of those 16 being measurable, 3 of which were in March. So, 16 events last week in Feb or Mar in just under 150 years or one every 9 years on average. That's why I say a 25 year drought/overdue.
 
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The 18Z GEFS looks like a beauty 2/28-3/5 with 3 Arctic highs going into the Midwest and moist flow in the SE below the highs.

But will it actually finally happen??

(I had this in the wrong thread earlier.)
 
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The 18Z GEFS looks like a beauty 2/28-3/5 with 3 Arctic highs going into the Midwest and moist flow in the SE below the highs.

But will it actually finally happen??

(I had this in the wrong thread earlier.)
Wrong thread is a form of flu bug ...
But on topic ... the set up is changing and it's likely due to change out west and in the PAC ... far too early to even get into the "Why" much less the "Wherefore" but the mechanism is seemingly in place for one last true "Hurrah" to our neighbors a tad bit north of either of us (me a tad bit more than you)
 
I'll take my chances again w/ this look.

It's grown more impressive and propagated forward in time on NWP & w/ tropical forcing finally moving out of the central Pacific, it makes sense we could see one more legitimate window of opportunity for wintry wx across the board at the end of February/beginning of March.

View attachment 15866
Well maybe the tanked SOI might actually help?
 
Holy Moses at the 0Z GFS' W Canadian block near days 9-10!

Possible epic run alert, possible epic run alert!

Edit: Hmm, maybe those super cold FV3 runs are not so insane after all.
Strange run at 500. Nice to see the disruption of that big trough out west though. How it plays out from there is anyone’s guess. Let’s just hope it’s not transient, but if it is let’s pray for something firing out of the gulf as that big blue blob digs in or pulls out ??
 
The 0Z GEFS is also picking up on the very strong NW Canada ridge near the end of the month! 11-15 GEFS liable to be a much colder run and maybe the coldest yet in the SE for early March!
 
To give you an idea of how cold the 0Z GEFS is in the Midwest 2/28-3/4, Des Moines is a whopping 24 colder than normal, which is equal to an incredible 13 colder than the coldest part of winter in Jan for a five day period! So, that's the intensity of cold that he GEFS thinks will be plunging down. Could this be its recent cold bias playing tricks on us? Of course, it could but even when taking away the average cold bias for the 11-15 there, it would still be 22 colder than normal or 11 colder than the normal for midwinter. I'd have to look really hard to see if they've ever been that cold in early March. If only this were really going to happen and if only it could be tapped down in the SE. Can you say early to mod March 1960, early March 1980, or mid March of 1993 type of cold? Or early March of 1899? Or parts of March of 1996?
 
To give you an idea of how cold the 0Z GEFS is in the Midwest 2/28-3/4, Des Moines is a whopping 24 colder than normal, which is equal to an incredible 13 colder than the coldest part of winter in Jan for a five day period! So, that's the intensity of cold that he GEFS thinks will be plunging down. Could this be its recent cold bias playing tricks on us? Of course, it could but even when taking away the average cold bias for the 11-15 there, it would still be 22 colder than normal or 11 colder than the normal for midwinter. I'd have to look really hard to see if they've ever been that cold in early March. If only this were really going to happen and if only it could be tapped down in the SE. Can you say early to mod March 1960, early March 1980, or mid March of 1993 type of cold? Or early March of 1899? Or parts of March of 1996?

Id take this look, nice -EPO/slightly +PNA couplet, ridging around Greenland, and that PV lobe to keep things suppressed, also it’s not 300+ hours away, wouldn’t this favor a southern slider ? 9A3BDFD3-73E6-482F-A119-ABE017E71391.jpeg
 
As off the wall as this winter has been thus far, a significant cold snap for March wouldn't shock me at this point for the SE. This will be interesting to following over the next couple of weeks to see where the players end up on the field and if a home run or grand slam can be had for some.

To give you an idea of how cold the 0Z GEFS is in the Midwest 2/28-3/4, Des Moines is a whopping 24 colder than normal, which is equal to an incredible 13 colder than the coldest part of winter in Jan for a five day period! So, that's the intensity of cold that he GEFS thinks will be plunging down. Could this be its recent cold bias playing tricks on us? Of course, it could but even when taking away the average cold bias for the 11-15 there, it would still be 22 colder than normal or 11 colder than the normal for midwinter. I'd have to look really hard to see if they've ever been that cold in early March. If only this were really going to happen and if only it could be tapped down in the SE. Can you say early to mod March 1960, early March 1980, or mid March of 1993 type of cold? Or early March of 1899? Or parts of March of 1996?
 
Well well well...as Larry said, the 00z Euro kinda flipped. I’ll take my chances with this for the first week of March.

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10-15 day
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And what do you know? The 12Z GFS is much warmer in the SE than the 0Z 2/26-3/3. On this run, no freeze at KATL. Also, the 6Z FV3 was much warmer than recent runs. We just cannot get a break this winter lol. #ModelColdIsAMirage

More seriously, I'm more interested in what the 12Z GEFS will say. Operationals are highly unreliable much past day 7.
 
So, here's the deal in a nutshell for the period 2/28-3/4 for RDU/ATL:

- 12Z GFS has them right at normal
- 12Z GEFS has them averaging 5 colder than normal

The GFS has an overall warm bias and is very jumpy in the 11-15 (more for entertainment than anything although it can still project what may lie ahead) , but the much less unreliable GEFS in the 11-15 has had a strong cold bias of about 7/day on average in the SE. If one were to correct for bias, the 12z GEFS implies it will actually be ~2 warmer than normal for 2/28-3/4 for RDU/ATL. It will be interesting to see what actually happens. Will the cold bias finally be broken with an actual colder pattern change or not?
 
I think we have one more mixed bag storm (late Feb/early March) before we truly turn into a snowier pattern in March. Tired of the ice.
 
Although it is warmer for 2/27-8 vs the 0Z Euro (what else is new), I think most folks are going to like the 240 hour 12Z Euro map, especially vs the 12Z GFS 240. Up next the 12Z EPS and then the always exciting Euro Bleaklies, which are actually an extension of the 0z EPS!
 
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