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Pattern Fabulous February

ForsythSnow said:
With that amount of ice, even a gentle 10 mph can cause major issues.
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Also here's the snow map.
snku_acc.us_se.png
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How on gods green earth is the fv3 spitting out 7 inches of snow over Chattanooga? There is no way this set up would have anything more than flurries at the end of the storm for anyone in the Tennessee valley. What is the reason for this amount of snow here and elsewhere in TN?
 
How in the world is the FV3 snow map anywhere close to reality even on pivotal? If this is a strong wedge we are usually looking at sleet and zr mix or more sleet. I'm assuming the pivotal is accounting for sleet as well.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Worth bringing this up since a lot of modeled ice maps are being thrown around.
I.e. usually a good idea to cut the ice total maps down by 60-75% of course it will vary from case to case.
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Seems pivotal uses a ratio double of that. To factor it in realistically, cut the totals in half of what pivotal has I'm guessing. With half an inch in Columbia that's still significant though especially if the model is taken verbatim with a temp of around 28-30 degrees. At very least it could be around 0.4" of ice taken verbatim is my guess.
 
GaStorm said:
How in the world is the FV3 snow map anywhere close to reality even on pivotal? If this is a strong wedge we are usually looking at sleet and zr mix or more sleet. I'm assuming the pivotal is accounting for sleet as well.
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It has to do with timing and it is still sketchy. The model output shows the degrade of the wedge not being fast enough, so col air at 850 and 925 are still freezing in that N Central part of GA as the upper cold air wraps in. It's all a matter of position, but it's just model output. It's not meant to be 100% realistic.
 
ForsythSnow said:
It has to do with timing and it is still sketchy. The model output shows the degrade of the wedge not being fast enough, so col air at 850 and 925 are still freezing in that N Central part of GA as the upper cold air wraps in. It's all a matter of position, but it's just model output. It's not meant to be 100% realistic.
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The last strong wedge to actually bring our area snow was in 2015 I believe. It was a couple inches on top of the sleet we had.
 
Here's why the FV3 was so much colder this run. The HP shifted south into a better position for CAD. I think the HP is probably overdone a little and will likely be in the 1040-1042 range.
fv3p_mslpaNorm_us_fh144_trend.gif
 
Checking 12z models just like 6z this a.m. Can,GFS,FV3 all have H5 very similar. Only differences are exact position / timing of HP up over NE. Easy to see this one boys. All about strength/placement /timing of HP in NE.

at 12z noticed the Canadian suite increased HP strength from 12z last night, was 1024 now 1030+. Both GFS and FV3 are 1040+ still. Biggest difference between the 3 globals at 12z is where they place HP. Canadian is fastest out in front sliding off NE with the weaker HP by 10mb. But its trended toward FV3 and GFS.

All 3 solutions viable. Gefs and eps and euro all are similar H5. It gets down to the minuet exact placement , strength of HP. Any little difference has big effects on surface wx down here. Bottom line it is very possible what FV3 shows and very possible its off by just a hair which would yield cold rain.
 
The 12z Euro is worlds apart from the FV3 and GFS with the HP strength.
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Fwiw the GFS agrees quite closely with the FV3 with the HP strength.
1549477850257.png
 
I know everyone is focusing on the 12th and 13th storm on the FV3, but is it still showing two more storms after that before the 22nd?
 
NCSNOW said:
Checking 12z models just like 6z this a.m. Can,GFS,FV3 all have H5 very similar. Only differences are exact position / timing of HP up over NE. Easy to see this one boys. All about strength/placement /timing of HP in NE.

at 12z noticed the Canadian suite increased HP strength from 12z last night, was 1024 now 1030+. Both GFS and FV3 are 1040+ still. Biggest difference between the 3 globals at 12z is where they place HP. Canadian is fastest out in front sliding off NE with the weaker HP by 10mb. But its trended toward FV3 and GFS.

All 3 solutions viable. Gefs and eps and euro all are similar H5. It gets down to the minuet exact placement , strength of HP. Any little difference has big effects on surface wx down here. Bottom line it is very possible what FV3 shows and very possible its off by just a hair which would yield cold rain.
Click to expand...

And the Euro is much weaker with the HP too. The Euro has a 1035mb HP and the GFS/FV3 have a 1042-1045mb one. The Euro is also cutting the low much quicker whereas the FV3 is more suppressed.
 
snowlover91 said:
And the Euro is much weaker with the HP too. The Euro has a 1035mb HP and the GFS/FV3 have a 1042-1045mb one. The Euro is also cutting the low much quicker whereas the FV3 is more suppressed.
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Which makes sense if the high is indeed weaker, farther NE, and sliding out.
 
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