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Pattern Fabulous February

EmersonGA said:
Really? We stayed cloudy and never got above 50 all day yesterday. I guess I didn’t look at a map.
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Yeah, I noticed the tight temperature/sky cover gradient yesterday.

The edge of the low clouds pretty much remained stationary along a Carrollton-Douglasville-Roswell-Cumming line for much of the afternoon.

Areas SE of there got well into the 60s and 70s.
 
EmersonGA said:
Really? We stayed cloudy and never got above 50 all day yesterday. I guess I didn’t look at a map.
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I thought it was supposed to get warm yesterday, but I went outside around 4:30 and it was 49F. It kinda took me for a surprise.
 
I'll take a double order of the FV3, please.
snku_acc.us_ma.png
 
Looking long range, feb 27-30, the hope of our return( onset) to arctic winter seems to depend on how strong and how far south the eastern pac high extends.If it will push the approaching LP south (Southern Cal) delaying its arrival, winter is on....if not, a few cool shots in the last good days of winter.
just the way it looks to me fwiw;)
 
Webberweather53 said:
Euro still buying the potential for a brief rain, sleet, snow mix Tuesday night and into early Wednesday over the Carolinas and parts of N GA. Looks trivial at best, but it's better than nothing

View attachment 15844
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Wasn't expecting this to develop this much but now it looks possible. Soundings on the 3K NAM and other models seem to suggest sleet up this way as well. Doubt it'll be much.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Wasn't expecting this to develop this much but now it looks possible. Soundings on the 3K NAM and other models seem to suggest sleet up this way as well. Doubt it'll be much.
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Yeah it won't be much but it'll at least keep us preoccupied through this crappy pattern. Very similar setup to those November ice storms in the mountains and far western piedmont except there could be a more expansive area of snow/sleet mix at the onset across central NC
 
Even the latest FV3 doesn’t get ATL another freeze until at least 3/4 and has no 32 even nearby. That would mean the lowest this month of 34, the warmest coldest reading in Feb in recorded history (back to 1879).
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Can you explain what is going on here? And what you’re trying to say?
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With frontogenesis/lift like that, that argues for a more expansive precip field or “nose”, models often underestimate the amount of precip at onset, we need that nose of precip to form or enter the Carolinas for a much better chance of snow since all it would do is likely cool the column
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
With frontogenesis/lift like that, that argues for a more expansive precip field or “nose”, models often underestimate the amount of precip at onset, we need that nose of precip to form or enter the Carolinas for a much better chance of snow since all it would do is likely cool the column
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That’s what I thought just never really knew what that product meant
 
February over half gone... march fast approaching... isn't time to fire up the spring thread yet.... winter thread gets started months before winter even starts... lol something to ponder upon...
 
The LR EPS obviously looks legitimately better and the way the crappy pattern/SE Ridge is depicted to dampen &/or break down breaks down is far more believable than the -NAO route some were advertising earlier this past week. We've been at a very unfortunate position where we have a moderately intense and slightly suppressed anticyclone in the NE Pacific, a very amplified and poleward NE Pac high or Aleutian Low would be capable of breaking down the SER. We're going to take the amplified/poleward high route as a big high is forecast to go up in Alaska, this would dislodge a huge chunk of the polar vortex and send it hurtling into North America.

It's hard to actually know what the sensible local impacts would be on the weather around here, but the poleward/intense NE Pac/Alaskan high patterns are usually boom or bust as far as cold air is concerned with relatively seasonable weather interspersed with episodes of extremely intense arctic outbreaks, whereas an Aleutian Low pattern would be more consistently cool-mild but the strongest arctic air masses are generally weaker. Pick your poison both have significant benefits and drawbacks, but this pattern is clearly capable of producing and has done so the last several years. Given that we're nearing the tail end of most of our legitimate climatological snowfall windows, this is probably the pattern most here need to even be cold enough at all to get significant snow/ice at the tail end of February and early March.

ecmwf-ens_z500aMean_nhem_1.png

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Well that 1058 mb high never makes much headway into the SE, but the followup 1045 mb high on the 12Z GFS has a +PNA all of the sudden and early March is once again looking like the restart of winter with near a record low of just below 0 in Chi on 3/3 and 2 hard freezes in much of the SE 3/3-4.
 
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GaWx said:
Well that 1058 mb high never makes much headway into the SE, but the followup 1045 mb high on the 12Z GFS has a +PNA all of the sudden and early March is once again looking like the restart of winter with near a near record low of just below 0 in Chi on 3/3 and 2 hard freezes in much of the SE 3/3-4.
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taking anything long range gfs with big grain salt...
 
tennessee storm said:
taking anything long range gfs with big grain salt...
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Of course, but less of a grain than cold showing on the strongly cold biased FV3. The FV3 has been showing extreme cold on numerous runs and, therefore, doesn’t mean much of anything on its own. However, the GFS hasn’t been cold biased at all and I can’t even recall one prior GFS run this cold for early March. Regardless, anything even at just 10 days on any operational run should almost always be taken with a grain even though I’d rather see this than not as it at least shows what “could” happen. More importantly, let’s see if 12Z GEFS comes in colder also.
 
35 and rain currently. Temps fell throughout the day yesterday into the 30s and we are stuck /wedged in pretty good here.

Ice in Some western NC spots this morning
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
And then the NAM... From yesterday until today...
View attachment 15854

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Notice any trends?
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More wedgie. For those of us who follow CAD events every winter, they always trend colder until go time. The 3k NAM will be in range at 18Z I believe so that should be telling as well. Although the precip after the update on the NAM seems to be underdone this year, the NAM profiles do well in CAD events.
 
Here's my sounding at onset.... look at the vertical lift in the snow growth region.... If the surface is cold enough, it will be a heavy burst of snow for a lot of western NC.
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Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
More wedgie. For those of us who follow CAD events every winter, they always trend colder until go time. The 3k NAM will be in range at 18Z I believe so that should be telling as well. Although the precip after the update on the NAM seems to be underdone this year, the NAM profiles do well in CAD events.
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That’s true. I’ve also seen the NAM show cold and snow and Cadding at the end of its range many times that trended warmer as we moved in. In this case you have some other support for its solution, so hopefully it will be headed in the right direction.
 
Rain Cold said:
That’s true. I’ve also seen the NAM show cold and snow and Cadding at the end of its range many times that trended warmer as we moved in. In this case you have some other support for its solution, so hopefully it will be headed in the right direction.
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So many times the CAD coming in colder gets negated by the NW trend of the low pressure as the lead time gets shorter. We typically will lose the upper/mid layers of cold, but get colder at the surface. That also means the snow chances disappear and we get more sleet/fzrn/rain.
 
packfan98 said:
So many times the CAD coming in colder gets negated by the NW trend of the low pressure as the lead time gets shorter. We typically will lose the upper/mid layers of cold, but get colder at the surface. That also means the snow chances disappear and we get more sleet/fzrn/rain.
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It’s already happening, models have been depicting more sleet for me vs yesterday’s better snow soundings, also gefs members show this
 
Can we please do a new thread for this TUE night/Wed mainly NC CAD area wintry threat? I'm asking because it is starting to dominate this pattern thread.

Meanwhile, the 216 hour maps of the GFS/Euro, and CMC all have some things in common fwiw: a strong Arctic high coming down into MT/N Plains (1059 GFS, 1045 Euro/CMC), a potent NW Canada/AK H5 ridge, a +PNA trying to form, a PV in the vicinity of Hudson Bay, and the SER finally weakening/exiting. Let's see if this gets legs on future runs as that would portend good news for cold lovers in early March.
 
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GaWx said:
Can we please do a new thread for this TUE night/Wed mainly NC CAD area wintry threat? I'm asking because it is starting to dominate this pattern thread.

Meanwhile, the 216 hour maps of the GFS/Euro, and CMC all have some things in common fwiw: a strong Arctic high coming down into MT/N Plains (1059 GFS, 1045 Euro/CMC), a potent NW Canada/AK H5 ridge, a +PNA trying to form, a PV in the vicinity of Hudson Bay, and the SER finally weakening/exiting. Let's see if this gets legs on future runs as that would portend good news for cold lovers in early March.
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That will be ok with me. ??
 
Decent look that will probably disappear next run, this look favors cyclogenesis off the nc/sc/fl coast, also a decent western ridge and a PV lobe to keep things suppressed, like I said it will be gone next run DDC744CB-4A5A-425E-A9EE-0CEE0F0AC5AA.jpeg
 
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