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Pattern Fabulous February

FV3 went OFF
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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
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Skepticism intensifies. I know 90% is ice but ice is wintry weather.

Hmmmmmm. I'm not sure this is believable but at least it's a clown map. If the Euro delivers support I might get some money out of the bank and add some chips to the pile. If. I'm not sold yet.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Skepticism intensifies. I know 90% is ice but ice is wintry weather.

Hmmmmmm. I'm not sure this is believable but at least it's a clown map. If the Euro delivers support I might get some money out of the bank and add some chips to the pile. If. I'm not sold yet.
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Absolutely. It’s IP/ZR for most. Just gives an idea of what’s falling as frozen. More of it this run. Wasn’t a big rainer this run before the wedge dug in. I still don’t believe it the least bit. Inside 6 days..
 
If Fv3 pulls this coup we must respect it from now on... it is a little sketchy no ones coming on board but we still have the euro and the trends have been our friend... but if it falls flat we know the Fv3 is smelly trash... I choose option 1 ?
 
Rain Cold said:
That looks like it's a little less expansive farther east, right? That would seem to be more in line with traditional CAD than some of the previous maps.
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Earlier in the run the snow depth (frozen qpf is more accurate) map is more expansive to the east. I think it accounts for things like melting and such as areas to the east warm due to the low cutting.
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snowlover91 said:
Earlier in the run the snow depth (frozen qpf is more accurate) map is more expansive to the east. I think it accounts for things like melting and such as areas to the east warm due to the low cutting.
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Makes sense. Thanks. IF...and this is still a big IF in my mind, the high is as strong and well-timed as the FV3 shows, I think the wedging would end up being stronger, forcing the low track/reformation to change...i.e. more wintry farther east. Not trying to wishcast for MBY, because I will rain no matter what. Anyway, this is all still just speculation until more models come on board.
 
Rain Cold said:
Makes sense. Thanks. IF...and this is still a big IF in my mind, the high is as strong and well-timed as the FV3 shows, I think the wedging would end up being stronger, forcing the low track/reformation to change...i.e. more wintry farther east. Not trying to wishcast for MBY, because I will rain no matter what. Anyway, this is all still just speculation until more models come on board.
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Yeah I think the key difference is it strengthens the HP in SE Canada and holds it there for much of the storm. Verbatim that would provide a nice feed of CAA if it noses down like the FV3 indicates. The GFS shifts it offshore pretty quickly and doesn't build it down as much although the 12z GFS run did improve some.
 
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