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Pattern Fabulous February

Going to go ahead and be first on record to say March will be drier than February for TN and NC.
 
Lol, 6Z FV3 has SL/Chi at -8/-20 at 12AM on 3/4 & dropping! SL/Chi lowest in all of March is -5/-12! They have a low on 3/3 of -35 at MSP and highs on 3/3 of near 0 Chi/-17 MSP. Lowest Chi Mar max on record is 8. For MSP, lowest max/min on record for Mar is -3/-32. FV3 cold bias horrible.
 
Gfs model says rain based off precip map but shows a heavy wet snow sounding for me, and shows a warning criteria event for parts of the mountains/nw foothills
 
FV3 still showing accumulating sn and zr for northern half of NC and also warning criteria NW Piedmont to the mountains..... of course considering it's also showing sn over me right now (which it's not even close) umm well this model sucks
 
Fv3 has shown the possibility of some front end wintry precip for days now and models are caving towards it, i don’t know if it got lucky with its cold bias or what, I can’t even say it’s won yet becuase tommorow it can easily be back to no chance, but I would take any sort of snow even if it lasts for 30 minutes and changes to rain
 
Rain Cold said:
No really good progress in the overnight models that I could see, although I haven’t seen the EPS past 240. (Is anything past 240 even worth looking at anyway?). But I assume if it was really good, it would have been discussed.

What a shame it has been to have such an active STJ this winter with almost no cold air to speak of. When all is said and done, we will have wasted over half of the winter above normal. We weren’t really far off from having a couple of nice events. In fact, I’ll bet that even an average winter temp-wise would have given many areas above average snowfall.

In the end, we will have squandered away what should have been a decent period, having only the distant memory of a rogue December storm as a bittersweet epilogue to a horribly disappointing winter season.
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Yeah we got jinxed when someone said what if that was the only storm.


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SD said:
Those soundings late tuesday night into wednesday are so close around here.

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Get a burst of heavy precip and you will switch to snow for a little bit with the way soundings look, but that snow will probably be heavy with that band, but will quickly switch over to rain EB4862CA-057B-42C2-89D5-90E3AF38BD5C.png
 
Though it's getting into next month (being way too far out for any comfort level), at least a hint shows up that the SER may get beat back some; other models show it, but this is a fairly good visual ...

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Lol. JB this morning about the FV3-

The experimental GFS flat out stinks with its snow forecasts, What a pain this is going to be next year if this is not fixed Either that or the Carolinas and Va are about to get paralyzed from snow and ice, Can't wait for this to go online It will be like what Alice Cooper said when his band first played.. People would pay to get in, then walk out telling everyone how disgusted they were, Well The Experimental model looks like that to me, You go to see it, then get disgusted and throw it out
 
SD said:
Those soundings late tuesday night into wednesday are so close around here.

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Yep. Not far. Not holding my breath, but there’s still time to pick up a degree or two
 
BIG FROSTY said:
Lol. JB this morning about the FV3-

The experimental GFS flat out stinks with its snow forecasts, What a pain this is going to be next year if this is not fixed Either that or the Carolinas and Va are about to get paralyzed from snow and ice, Can't wait for this to go online It will be like what Alice Cooper said when his band first played.. People would pay to get in, then walk out telling everyone how disgusted they were, Well The Experimental model looks like that to me, You go to see it, then get disgusted and throw it out
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My first question is why are degreed mets like JB looking at 10:1 ratio snow maps on TT that are obviously not a fault of the model but the algorithm used to calculate it?
 
Rain Cold said:
I’ve spent the entire winter hoping the FV3 would be right. What does the 12z show?
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Webberweather53 said:
My first question is why are degreed mets like JB looking at 10:1 ratio snow maps on TT that are obviously not a fault of the model but the algorithm used to calculate it?
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It would be cool if Americans were smart enough to use a more conservative algorithm for snowfall maps but here we are....


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Jon said:
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Well, the FV3 got the December storm right, but has been showing fantasy storm after fantasy storm since January. But now the GFS is showing a good storm for NC and the northern half of SC. Do we not believe the old GFS, too? Are we to the point that if the Euro doesn't show the same thing we just toss it?
 
Brick Tamland said:
Well, the FV3 got the December storm right, but has been showing fantasy storm after fantasy storm since January. But now the GFS is showing a good storm for NC and the northern half of SC. Do we not believe the old GFS, too? Are we to the point that if the Euro doesn't show the same thing we just toss it?
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The FV3 continues to show at least some frozen, while the GFS and CMC also do between times when they don’t. I wouldn’t toss them outright, but wth the Euro at least beginning with a little mix across the north after showing rain on the last run, it might give enough confidence that at least a little wintry precip at the onset would be possible, especially with the NAM coming in colder, although it is the longer range NAM, which you could probably toss and expect to trend warmer, along with the FV3 which should eventually cave to the others with its ridiculous snow maps, at least until we see whether or not the other models continue to trend colder or correct back warmer (though often, CAD situations are somewhat underdone — especially classic CADs, which this most certainly is not). Keep for now, but have the toss lever ready.
 
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