Jessy89
Member
Nc probably will see winter weather sometime next week. Outside of there I just don’t see it. Especially without support
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Pattern Fabulous February
- Thread starter PEA_RIDGE
- Start date
Even here in nc I don’t like this setup, as @Webberweather53 just stated you want the artic airmass here first not when the precip has already started, things like increasing dew points and heat released from raindrops would argue for it to be warmer at the sfc
My goodness, hrrr clearly shows supercells, some of those hooks tho
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Brick Tamland
Guest
FV3 is not blinking, though, and we are 6 days out now. It was really good in this range with the December storm, which was also a CAD storm, while the other models had to play catch up, even inside 5 days. Guess we will see if it is right again.
Storm5
Member
ForsythSnow
Moderator
I agree. One model against many. I could say the NAM was great in Dec 2017 but was it right 70% of the time as the lead model? No. The FV3 is consistent but likely consistently wrong as it has been most of the year. It just got lucky in December.
snowlover91
Member
Here's a GIF showing the dewpoint crashing as the 1040+ HP build in. The key to watch IMO is going to be the LP track and how strong that HP is. If it is 1040+ and builds in like the FV3 shows than an ice storm is entirely possible.
The FV3 has a 1045 HP that builds in.
The old GFS has a 1043 HP building in but it's a bit further north with the LP in the midwest and with the HP.
Meanwhile the Euro has a 1034 HP that is sliding off the coast.
The FV3 has a 1045 HP that builds in.
The old GFS has a 1043 HP building in but it's a bit further north with the LP in the midwest and with the HP.
Meanwhile the Euro has a 1034 HP that is sliding off the coast.
snowlover91
Member
Looking at initialized conditions vs what other models predicted for the HP across southern Canada can sometimes be a useful way to figure out model bias. When I look at what we see observed vs what models showed roughly 6 days out it's pretty clear which model did best with the overall LP track and HP strength (although slightly overdone). This doesn't mean it will perform the same for this system we are tracking but it does show that the FV3 6 days out pretty much nailed the exact positions of the two HP's and the LP out in Colorado and was just a little too strong with the HP's. Obviously each setup is different but my point is that when looking at 6 day forecasts vs reality the FV3 nailed our current setup 6 days out which is pretty impressive to me.
12km NAM 6z initialization. We have a 1036 HP up in southern Canada and a 1040 HP in western Canada.
Now let's look at what the FV3 showed 6 days ago for our current observed state. Both HP's were 2-3mb too strong on the FV3 but the LP track and HP positions are almost identical to what the NAM observed. That's impressive.
The GFS was too far south and strong with the western HP and too weak with the eastern one by 2mb. The primary LP is way too far east in Illinois vs Colorado as observations show.
Here's the CMC, since it runs off hours I went with it's hour 138 forecast. You can see it's pretty far off with the HP strength and position, it's not even close except the LP track.
Now here is the Euro. It did not do a good job with the HP position and the strength of the western HP was 5mb weaker than current observations. The LP position is spot on.
12km NAM 6z initialization. We have a 1036 HP up in southern Canada and a 1040 HP in western Canada.
Now let's look at what the FV3 showed 6 days ago for our current observed state. Both HP's were 2-3mb too strong on the FV3 but the LP track and HP positions are almost identical to what the NAM observed. That's impressive.
The GFS was too far south and strong with the western HP and too weak with the eastern one by 2mb. The primary LP is way too far east in Illinois vs Colorado as observations show.
Here's the CMC, since it runs off hours I went with it's hour 138 forecast. You can see it's pretty far off with the HP strength and position, it's not even close except the LP track.
Now here is the Euro. It did not do a good job with the HP position and the strength of the western HP was 5mb weaker than current observations. The LP position is spot on.
I think we have a punt! From WxSouth
Exactly and I'm not agreeing to be negative, but factual. The FV3 is on an island right now with absolutely no support from any other modeling, although I guess one could argue that the GFS leaned that way. I still think if we get those strong HP's to keep dropping down out of Canada we can score at some point, will it be this system? I'd like to see something else lean that way before I get even the least bit excited and if the fv3 loses, then we all need to acknowledge it's 5+ day failure
Ok so if there isnt much support why the heck are people talking about it so much?
snowlover91
Member
This is the only storm that the FV3 has latched onto and shown wintry solutions for NC since the early December storm. Sure it's thrown around some interesting day 7+ ideas that haven't verified but it has locked onto the idea of a wintry/icy event for NC and it's shown this general idea for days now. We are getting inside the day 6 range where it's very good with synoptics and I demonstrated above how at day 6 it matched up almost spot on with current observations and the Euro was pretty far off by contrast. It could certainly be too cold biased so that's something to watch going forward; it will also depend on what the 5H energy does and if it cuts/how strong.
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Brick Tamland
Guest
But all the other models have done this, too.
It actually "locked" on to a winter storm for this weekend but lost it and then it became this one.... I don't have time to read back through everything and I'm not seeking an argument but there were post made then about how it was locked in and led the way, well that's now gone and here we are talking about something a couple days later. I hope it verifies, I want winter weather I'd love to get some snow and even some ice but I'd just feel more confident if it had more support.
snowlover91
Member
Correct, people like to harp on a model because it shows something 7+ days out that is gone the next run and they label the model as inaccurate because of that. I've been following the FV3 very closely since winter started and it has been very good, possibly the best, model inside 6 days IMO. This will be another big test for it so we will need to see what it does the next few runs. The GFS is pretty close to it, just doesn't push the cold air down as much.
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Brick Tamland
Guest
Six Mile Wx
Member
Six Mile Wx
Member
ForsythSnow
Moderator
My bets would be on the Euro in terms of the high. We know the GFS always seems to overpower its high strengths. Maybe let's come back to this post in 5 days and see which was closer.
snowlover91
Member
Yeah but look at post #1448 in this thread. I demonstrated the observed HP positions and strengths vs what models roughly 6 days out projected. The FV3 was the best hands down although it was a touch too strong with them. The Euro was actually pretty bad overall. Every storm and scenario is different though, this will be a great test for the FV3 and I'm watching it closely to see how it does.
The biggest unanswered question for me is if it has a cold bias inside 6 days with this type of setup or if it's handling the CAD better at this range than other models (and something they will gradually show with time). Since we only have had 1 legitimate winter storm here in NC it's tough to know but this storm will give us a good idea if the FV3 is the new model of choice inside 6 days or not.