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Pattern Fabulous February

Brick Tamland said:
Looks like the models are definitely trending colder now with the mid week system. Still some time to go for them to keep trending colder. But will it be cold enough for folks further east and south in NC?
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2 words. Cold Bias. Expect nothing except for the mountains. Seen this way too many times this winter.
 
Euro definitely colder.... only a degree or two away from some issues along the border

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Only reason this is not a major winter storm is that SE death ridge, if it was not much of a problem then this would likely be a major winter storm for parts of the SE but nope, SER is that mosquito you can’t swat away from your face/ear
 
Judah Cohen,

All the metaphors seem apt - even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while and even a broken clock is right twice a day. Is there any chance the FV3 is correct in it's #snowfall forecast for next week? #IWantToBelieve


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Folks are going to love the 12Z EPS 11-15 not because it has the SE colder since it doesn't (it is similar to the 0Z overall with warmer than normal giving way to near and then just getting to below normal at the end), but more for what may lie a little later due to a nice looking H5 pattern with an impressive +PNA accompanied by a diving jetstream bringing in cross polar fed Arctic highs into the Plains and Midwest while the conveyor belt of moisture continues unabated in the SE. Get that adjusted a bit and you'd have major SE winter storm potential shortly thereafter in early March. Bottom line: there's no spring in sight once Feb ends per this run.
 
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GaWx said:
Folks are going to love the 12Z EPS 11-15 not because it has the SE colder since it doesn't (it is similar to the 0Z overall with warmer than normal giving way to near and then just getting to below normal at the end), but more for what may lie a little later due to a nice looking H5 pattern with an impressive +PNA accompanied by a diving jetstream bringing in cross polar fed Arctic highs into the Plains and Midwest while the conveyor belt of moisture continues unabated in the SE. Get that adjusted a bit and you'd have major SE winter storm potential shortly thereafter in early March. Bottom line: there's no spring in sight once Feb ends.
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The eps has failed many times this winter especially in the 10-15 day range . I’m a skeptic


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Myfrotho704_ said:
First week of March is becoming interesting, gefs/eps agrees
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Once again the cam is kicked down the rd. Don’t mean this to be banter. We have a real and more serious threat from all the rain coming potential is there for flooding


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Jessy89 said:
Once again the cam is kicked down the rd. Don’t mean this to be banter. We have a real and more serious threat from all the rain coming potential is there for flooding


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Lol we knew the rest of feb is toast, this pattern has to switch and these past couple of years it has been March, last year we had a similar pattern (SER dominated) and were looking at the first week of March for potential and ended up with a accumulating snow for some of Nc, I have not been that optimistic for feb but I am for March
 
Mar-Apr could be ugly for parts of the SE, namely Western NC and Eastern Tn., especially March. Pretty soon we may want to change our seasonal calendars to Winter running from March thru April and then begins Summer.
 
NCSNOW said:
If my memory is right there was one in Nov,then one in Dec before the big snow. Remember going up to App football game and one was wanning front end event.
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There were 2 in November depending on where u were in NC! Mid November I’ve storm crushed areas like Boone the next one the escarpment and those just east of Asheville!
 
The models are suggesting 20-25 below normal airmasses coming down into the Midwest very late in Feb/start of March. We could be seeing Chicago's lows in the singles and threatening 0/highs in the teens and MSP as cold as the -teens to near -20 for low/highs below 0! Folks, these are similar to temperatures as cold as those that occurred just prior to the great SE winter storms of early March 1960 and 1980! So, there would be plenty of cold to work with IFFFFFF the SER is weakened enough to allow it to be well tapped. This period is going to be a whole lot of fun to follow. In the meantime, enjoy spring and the heavy rains. Also rest up as you may need it for early March!
 
Trend for 850s, this would still be a sleet/rain sounding for those areas below freezing at 850 hPa but it gets closer every run for a snow sounding, it would still last for a short time tho
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GaWx said:
The models are suggesting 20-25 below normal airmasses coming down into the Midwest very late in Feb/start of March. We could be seeing Chicago's lows in the singles and threatening 0/highs in the teens and MSP as cold as the -teens to near -20 for low/highs below 0! Folks, these are similar to temperatures as cold as those that occurred just prior to the great SE winter storms of early March 1960 and 1980! So, there would be plenty of cold to work with IFFFFFF the SER is weakened enough to allow it to be well tapped. This period is going to be a whole lot of fun to follow. In the meantime, enjoy spring and the heavy rains. Also rest up as you may need it for early March!
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All of that sounds great, but I don't care how cold it is, the sun angle is always the same in March !
 
Fv3 is probably to cold but it’s interesting, it’s shifted the precip sheild north but that has not mattered much
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SoutheastRidge said:
All of that sounds great, but I don't care how cold it is, the sun angle is always the same in March !
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There can be accumulation snow during the daytime, I got 2 inches of snow in a hour and 30 during the afternoon last March, just gotta have decent rates
 
SoutheastRidge said:
All of that sounds great, but I don't care how cold it is, the sun angle is always the same in March !
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Myfrotho704_ said:
There can be accumulation snow during the daytime, I got 2 inches of snow in a hour and 30 during the afternoon last March, just gotta have decent rates
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I'm going to put the brakes on this Sun angle debate now before it gets any worse. If you want to discuss or debate it in the banter thread have at it. But the Sun angle mtyh has been debunked with so many Southeastern Winter storms in March examples over the years that it's getting ridiculous.
 
metwannabe said:
I'm going to put the brakes on this Sun angle debate now before it gets any worse. If you want to discuss or debate it in the banter thread have at it. But the Sun angle mtyh has been debunked with so many Southeastern Winter storms in March examples over the years that it's getting ridiculous.
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Understand ? my bad for not putting that in banter
 
metwannabe said:
I'm going to put the brakes on this Sun angle debate now before it gets any worse. If you want to discuss or debate it in the banter thread have at it. But the Sun angle mtyh has been debunked with so many Southeastern Winter storms in March examples over the years that it's getting ridiculous.
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I don't care if the sun angle is coming from the ground. Snow has to fall before any of that even matters
 
GaWx said:
The models are suggesting 20-25 below normal airmasses coming down into the Midwest very late in Feb/start of March. We could be seeing Chicago's lows in the singles and threatening 0/highs in the teens and MSP as cold as the -teens to near -20 for low/highs below 0! Folks, these are similar to temperatures as cold as those that occurred just prior to the great SE winter storms of early March 1960 and 1980! So, there would be plenty of cold to work with IFFFFFF the SER is weakened enough to allow it to be well tapped. This period is going to be a whole lot of fun to follow. In the meantime, enjoy spring and the heavy rains. Also rest up as you may need it for early March!
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Larry,
Gonna do my part ... Every AGW electric fan I own, and those of every neighbor in N Central Fla is going to be cranked and aimed due SE come 3/1 ... we're gonna blow that sucker down and see a Hogtown>Jax>Sav snow that no one will ever believe, or comprehend ...
 
pcbjr said:
Larry,
Gonna do my part ... Every AGW electric fan I own, and those of every neighbor in N Central Fla is going to be cranked and aimed due SE come 3/1 ... we're gonna blow that sucker down and see a Hogtown>Jax>Sav snow that no one will ever believe, or comprehend ...
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Really hoping for that to happen ??
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I just realized again this little system had potential in a crappy pattern.... another fail
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Fact is we have literally been just minute changes away from a good winter... It's like a team with a losing record but all the games were by 2 pts or less Lol
 
metwannabe said:
Sooooo close tomorrow.... I might have to take a short drive. :D

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Gfs really obliterates the warm nose and gets you close to a snow sounding by 18z tomorrow. Nam isn't as enthusiastic. With the 850mb low track right along I40 its hard to envision a change over south of the va border but if by some miracle that shifted to the SC border you could make a case for some snow in the border counties.

Like you said this is another case of so close but not happening. If the system were shifted about 100 miles south we would be in business. If the system were really wound up crossing the area you could make a case as it ending as a band of snow across the area.

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SD said:
Gfs really obliterates the warm nose and gets you close to a snow sounding by 18z tomorrow. Nam isn't as enthusiastic. With the 850mb low track right along I40 its hard to envision a change over south of the va border but if by some miracle that shifted to the SC border you could make a case for some snow in the border counties.

Like you said this is another case of so close but not happening. If the system were shifted about 100 miles south we would be in business. If the system were really wound up crossing the area you could make a case as it ending as a band of snow across the area.

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Yeah NAM and RGEM having none of it.... fv3 sucks Lol

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