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Pattern Fabulous February

The evolution from a northern Europe/Scandinavian high to a serious -NAO in week 2-3 would verify if the exceptionally persistent and strong upper trough over the Azores next week follows the evolution of the ECMWF w/ this trough staying to the south instead of migrating towards Iceland like the GFS on its 0z run depicted.
 
NCSNOW said:
Cmc,fv3 very icey along NC/VA border counties
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Euro not as strong with the HP therefore all liquid.... it is within 5 days so does the FV3 fail miserably once again or does it get lucky again?

Euro
ecmwf_mslp_m_east_23.png


FV3
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Radiant this morning has raised KATL Feb even further to 54.9, which would be tied with 1927 for 3rd warmest Feb, behind only 2018 and 2017! Just a few days ago, they had KATL at 51.5. So, further warm adjustments are still possible, believe it or not, since the trend to warmer may not be done yet though I’m guessing it may be nearing its warmest. This 54.9 raises the projected DJF to 49.8, which would be THE warmest El Niño DJF on record. The current warmest is the 49.5 of 2015-6. This would also be the 10th warmest of 141 winters dating back to 1878-9, which is amazingly warm for a weak Modoki El Niño.
 
GaWx said:
Radiant this morning has raised KATL Feb even further to 54.9, which would be tied with 1927 for 3rd warmest Feb, behind only 2018 and 2017! Just a few days ago, they had KATL at 51.5. So, further warm adjustments are still possible, believe it or not, since the trend to warmer may not be done yet though I’m guessing it may be nearing its warmest. This 54.9 raises the projected DJF to 49.8, which would be THE warmest El Niño DJF on record. The current warmest is the 49.5 of 2015-6. This would also be the 10th warmest of 141 winters dating back to 1878-9, which is amazingly warm for a weak Modoki El Niño.
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Three straight record warm Februaries? The SER is becoming a climatic stalwart. What’s to keep it from becoming a semi permanent feature in the Deep South for the foreseeable future?


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ATLwxfan said:
Three straight record warm Februaries? The SER is becoming a climatic stalwart. What’s to keep it from becoming a semi permanent feature in the Deep South for the foreseeable future?


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Perhaps a cooler SW N Atlantic as well as a change to -AMO would help. But that won’t be easy.
 
metwannabe said:
Also the ridiculous zr map based off the FV3 solution.....

zr_acc.us_ma.png
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I better test fire the generator this weekend...geeeze. Well, not entirely buying it without Euro and really even the GFS on this. Also may end up like the early Nov one where it was not quite cold enough for good accumulation of ice.
 
Nomanslandva said:
I better test fire the generator this weekend...geeeze. Well, not entirely buying it without Euro and really even the GFS on this. Also may end up like the early Nov one where it was not quite cold enough for good accumulation of ice.
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Probably not a bad idea even the Euro is very close to issues for your area....
ecmwf_frz_rain_raleigh_23.png
 
For those smarter than me weather wise (most here) is an AK ridge a pretty solid tell of a +PNA on the horizon and if so what’s the general lag time?
 
Poimen said:
So there is a lag??
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The thing is that the temperature and H5 anomaly charts you see for each MJO phase are with no lag. The cold/warm phases are called cold/warm because they are cold/warm right then on average, not because it is cold/warm, say, one week later on average. So, I maintain there’s no lag. For all I know, one week later could very well be far different. My January 1975-2014 study of Atlanta temps for each phase also assumed no lag.

Edit/aside: Temperatures do tend to lag H5 by a day or two though fwiw. But that isn’t specifically related to MJO. That’s a general idea. But still, the temperature charts for each MJO phase assume no lag and the so-called cold/warm phases are based on no lag.

Edit #2: If, say, phases 8 and 1 are both at about the same level of cold on average for a particular month, then you might interpret the cold during phase 1 as just a several day lag of phase 8. The bottom line though is that it’s best to look at the charts for each phase and assume no lag or otherwise it would be a misinterpretation of what the charts show.
 
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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
For those smarter than me weather wise (most here) is an AK ridge a pretty solid tell of a +PNA on the horizon and if so what’s the general lag time?
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I recommend that you look at a table of strong daily -EPO (significant AK ridge) and see what the average daily PNA is for specific periods both concurrent and several lag periods afterward (say, 3 days later, 7 days later, 10 days later, etc) to see whether there’s a correlation of -EPO and +PNA either concurrently or for one or more of those lag periods. This would require a fair amount of time since you’d need to look at numerous days to get a big enough sample/statistical credibility. But if you’d limit this to, say, -EPOs of 7+ consecutive days of, say, -200 or lower, it would be doable. If you really want a good answer badly enough, you should do this.
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Well Fv3 still seeing a big hit for NC even SC upstate ... it’s literally inside 100 hours of it doesn’t pick up a coup here this model is worse than the DGEX:(
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The pivotal maps are more realistic than the ones on TT or NCEP. These below are still probably too far south and the totals are way too high.
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Folks will like the 12Z GEFS as it has the weakest SER 2/24+. When was the last time I said something like that? As a result, the real torch ends 2/24 followed by back and forth that averages near normal 2/25-8 before it gets cold in early March. Also, a strong +PNA forms by 3/1 and going forward with some cross polar flow. In addition, a Greenland block is then in place and the -EPO remains. MJO forecasts have us around phase 1. So, in early March we'd have a +PNA/-EPO/Greenland blocking/MJO phase of 1 in a weak, Modoki El Nino. Winter lovers, what more could you ask for?
 
cd2play said:
We'll get the cold March (actually cold enough to support snow, not last year's crap fest of 36 and slop) and all the weather systems will get squashed, sheared. Mother nature has something against us.
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Regardless, the good news is that the first week of March is still early enough that it can easily still produce wintry magic, even down to Phil's place!
 
GaWx said:
Folks will like the 12Z GEFS as it has the weakest SER 2/24+. When was the last time I said something like that? As a result, the real torch ends 2/24 followed by back and forth that averages near normal 2/25-8 before it gets cold in early March. Also, a strong +PNA forms by 3/1 and going forward with some cross polar flow. In addition, a Greenland block is then in place and the -EPO remains. MJO forecasts have us around phase 1. So, in early March we'd have a +PNA/-EPO/Greenland blocking/MJO phase of 1 in a weak, Modoki El Nino. Winter lovers, what more could you ask for?
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So your saying , March 1960 redux!?
 
I can’t see surface maps but the HIGH on the euro definitely strengthened a lot vs it’s previous run... a good trend but is it good enough?
 
GaWx said:
Folks will like the 12Z GEFS as it has the weakest SER 2/24+. When was the last time I said something like that? As a result, the real torch ends 2/24 followed by back and forth that averages near normal 2/25-8 before it gets cold in early March. Also, a strong +PNA forms by 3/1 and going forward with some cross polar flow. In addition, a Greenland block is then in place and the -EPO remains. MJO forecasts have us around phase 1. So, in early March we'd have a +PNA/-EPO/Greenland blocking/MJO phase of 1 in a weak, Modoki El Nino. Winter lovers, what more could you ask for?
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Well, for starters, this pattern back in January. March is too late for Atlanta. I know, don't start with the "but, but, super storm blizzard, 8" snow in the 80's" crap. You can always find a rare exception to anything.
 
weatherfide said:
Well, for starters, this pattern back in January. March is too late for Atlanta. I know, don't start with the "but, but, super storm blizzard, 8" snow in the 80's" crap. You can always find a rare exception to anything.
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March has had too many winter storms to call them just rare exceptions at ATL. Here are just the significant to major ones: 2009, 1993, 1987, 1983, 1980, 1971, 3 in 1960, 1948, 1942, and 1924. That's about one every 10 years since 1900.

** Edit: El Nino ones: 1987, 1983, 1980, 1942, and 1924.
 
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GaWx said:
Early March has had too many winter storms to call them just rare exceptions at ATL. Here are just the significant to major ones: 2009, 1993, 1987, 1983, 1980, 1971, 3 in 1960, 1948, 1942, and 1924. That's about one every 10 years since 1900.
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And 10 years since the last one...

Maybe a favorable pattern will be established by the first of March. It's the best chance we've got at this point.
 
Here's one of the surface maps for the euro. There was almost zero frozen below VA on the 0z. It seems like all 12z runs were colder for the CAD areas.
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If I lived on the eastern facing slopes/ foothills of Nc no joke I’d prepare for a ice storm..... when you see models trending colder like this, normally that wedge can be extremely difficult to scour out especially areas around hickory/other parts of the foothills, it’s actually crazy sometimes how hard it is to scour a CAD in those areas while CLT can be in the 50s/60s and hickory stuck in the 30s/40s
 
Looks like the models are definitely trending colder now with the mid week system. Still some time to go for them to keep trending colder. But will it be cold enough for folks further east and south in NC?
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Well Fv3 still seeing a big hit for NC even SC upstate ... it’s literally inside 100 hours of it doesn’t pick up a coup here this model is worse than the DGEX:(
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Yeah, usually when we get around 6 days out is when the FV3 has backed off before, but it is still holding strong for a big NC hit.
 
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