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Pattern Fabulous February

The evolution from a northern Europe/Scandinavian high to a serious -NAO in week 2-3 would verify if the exceptionally persistent and strong upper trough over the Azores next week follows the evolution of the ECMWF w/ this trough staying to the south instead of migrating towards Iceland like the GFS on its 0z run depicted.
 
NCSNOW said:
Cmc,fv3 very icey along NC/VA border counties
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Euro not as strong with the HP therefore all liquid.... it is within 5 days so does the FV3 fail miserably once again or does it get lucky again?

Euro
ecmwf_mslp_m_east_23.png


FV3
fv3p_mslpa_us_22.png
 
Radiant this morning has raised KATL Feb even further to 54.9, which would be tied with 1927 for 3rd warmest Feb, behind only 2018 and 2017! Just a few days ago, they had KATL at 51.5. So, further warm adjustments are still possible, believe it or not, since the trend to warmer may not be done yet though I’m guessing it may be nearing its warmest. This 54.9 raises the projected DJF to 49.8, which would be THE warmest El Niño DJF on record. The current warmest is the 49.5 of 2015-6. This would also be the 10th warmest of 141 winters dating back to 1878-9, which is amazingly warm for a weak Modoki El Niño.
 
GaWx said:
Radiant this morning has raised KATL Feb even further to 54.9, which would be tied with 1927 for 3rd warmest Feb, behind only 2018 and 2017! Just a few days ago, they had KATL at 51.5. So, further warm adjustments are still possible, believe it or not, since the trend to warmer may not be done yet though I’m guessing it may be nearing its warmest. This 54.9 raises the projected DJF to 49.8, which would be THE warmest El Niño DJF on record. The current warmest is the 49.5 of 2015-6. This would also be the 10th warmest of 141 winters dating back to 1878-9, which is amazingly warm for a weak Modoki El Niño.
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Three straight record warm Februaries? The SER is becoming a climatic stalwart. What’s to keep it from becoming a semi permanent feature in the Deep South for the foreseeable future?


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ATLwxfan said:
Three straight record warm Februaries? The SER is becoming a climatic stalwart. What’s to keep it from becoming a semi permanent feature in the Deep South for the foreseeable future?


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Perhaps a cooler SW N Atlantic as well as a change to -AMO would help. But that won’t be easy.
 
metwannabe said:
Also the ridiculous zr map based off the FV3 solution.....

zr_acc.us_ma.png
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I better test fire the generator this weekend...geeeze. Well, not entirely buying it without Euro and really even the GFS on this. Also may end up like the early Nov one where it was not quite cold enough for good accumulation of ice.
 
Nomanslandva said:
I better test fire the generator this weekend...geeeze. Well, not entirely buying it without Euro and really even the GFS on this. Also may end up like the early Nov one where it was not quite cold enough for good accumulation of ice.
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Probably not a bad idea even the Euro is very close to issues for your area....
ecmwf_frz_rain_raleigh_23.png
 
For those smarter than me weather wise (most here) is an AK ridge a pretty solid tell of a +PNA on the horizon and if so what’s the general lag time?
 
Poimen said:
So there is a lag??
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The thing is that the temperature and H5 anomaly charts you see for each MJO phase are with no lag. The cold/warm phases are called cold/warm because they are cold/warm right then on average, not because it is cold/warm, say, one week later on average. So, I maintain there’s no lag. For all I know, one week later could very well be far different. My January 1975-2014 study of Atlanta temps for each phase also assumed no lag.

Edit/aside: Temperatures do tend to lag H5 by a day or two though fwiw. But that isn’t specifically related to MJO. That’s a general idea. But still, the temperature charts for each MJO phase assume no lag and the so-called cold/warm phases are based on no lag.

Edit #2: If, say, phases 8 and 1 are both at about the same level of cold on average for a particular month, then you might interpret the cold during phase 1 as just a several day lag of phase 8. The bottom line though is that it’s best to look at the charts for each phase and assume no lag or otherwise it would be a misinterpretation of what the charts show.
 
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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
For those smarter than me weather wise (most here) is an AK ridge a pretty solid tell of a +PNA on the horizon and if so what’s the general lag time?
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I recommend that you look at a table of strong daily -EPO (significant AK ridge) and see what the average daily PNA is for specific periods both concurrent and several lag periods afterward (say, 3 days later, 7 days later, 10 days later, etc) to see whether there’s a correlation of -EPO and +PNA either concurrently or for one or more of those lag periods. This would require a fair amount of time since you’d need to look at numerous days to get a big enough sample/statistical credibility. But if you’d limit this to, say, -EPOs of 7+ consecutive days of, say, -200 or lower, it would be doable. If you really want a good answer badly enough, you should do this.
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Well Fv3 still seeing a big hit for NC even SC upstate ... it’s literally inside 100 hours of it doesn’t pick up a coup here this model is worse than the DGEX:(
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The pivotal maps are more realistic than the ones on TT or NCEP. These below are still probably too far south and the totals are way too high.
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