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Pattern Fabulous February

Out to hr 150 on the Euro, and it's been raining for about 3-3.5 days straight already in parts of north-central MS, AL, GA, southern TN, NW SC, and parts of NC.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Another s/w is emerging from the s/w at day 10 and another big slug of rain is coming east so no end in sight potentially lol.
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Yeah as long as the SER holds firm it’ll be wave after wave of rain as these chunks of energy keep moving onshore. Could be some flooding issues if it materializes as modeled.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Another s/w is emerging from the s/w at day 10 and another big slug of rain is coming east so no end in sight potentially lol.
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Of course. Probably means the GFS is right about the perpetual rain. Driven by the SER and constant troughs out west just bombarding us. If we didn't have this ridge we probably would be discussing getting a winter storm. :rolleyes:
 
Here comes our attempt at a -NAO I've talked about for several days now showing up even more markedly on the Euro...

The very persistent trough & parade of cyclonic wave breaking near the Azores is finally making inroads near the end of this run to amplify and retrograde the Scandinavian high towards Greenland. It's about the only thing we have going for us consistently from run-to-run in the models. If the big North Pac high migrates up towards Alaska and the Pacific-Arctic as is the case here, then we'd really be cooking w/ peanut oil at the very end of February & early march.

Also notice, a typhoon develops in the West Pac later next week (also on the GFS but obviously stronger). The waveguide-typhoon interactions are different at this time of the year but that might be one more card we have left to play to get a good pattern at the last possible second this winter.
ecmwf_z500a_nhem_11 (1).png
 
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Webberweather53 said:
Here comes our attempt at a -NAO I've talked about for several days now showing up even more markedly on the Euro...

The very persistent trough & parade of cyclonic wave breaking near the Azores is finally making inroads near the end of this run to amplify and retrograde the Scandinavian high towards Greenland. It's about the only thing we have going for us consistently from run-to-run in the models. If the big North Pac high migrates up towards Alaska and the Pacific-Arctic as is the case here, then we'd really be cooking w/ peanut oil at the very end of February & early march.

Also notice, a typhoon develops in the West Pac later next week (also on the GFS but obviously stronger). The waveguide-typhoon interactions are different at this time of the year but that might be one more card we have left to play to get a good pattern at the last possible second this winter.
View attachment 15720
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In theory if we get a solid -NAO block, I assume it could also link to the ridge over Alaska and squash the SER in the process? I assume a 5h look something like this would be possible if that indeed occurs?

1550173068383.png
 
snowlover91 said:
In theory if we get a solid -NAO block, I assume it could also link to the ridge over Alaska and squash the SER in the process? I assume a 5h look something like this would be possible if that indeed occurs?

View attachment 15723
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In a basic sense, momentarily ignoring how we'd need to achieve any of what I'm talking about below, in order to get rid of the SE US ridge we need to do one or more of the following:
1) Completely destroy or amplify the GOA/NP blocking high into the Pacific-arctic so that it dumps an absurd amount of cold air into the mean trough over the Hudson Bay/Lakes s.t. it slides SEward, squashing the SER into the Western Atlantic
2) Create a -NAO that retrogrades all the way towards the Davis Straits and eastern/northern Canada, forcing a persistent upper level trough over Atlantic Canada/New England that suppresses the high also well offshore. A merger of both blocks over the arctic would result in a polar vortex split that would allow a substantial piece of the PV to drop into Canada as we observed in January, what happens thereafter is up for speculation but at least gives us something we might be able to work w/ to produce a winter storm.
 
Interesting changes on 12Z EPS in 11-15 in Canada and N tier of US with much sharper dip/cross polar flow at H5. It doesn't cool the SE any but let's see if this is a sign of changes ahead in later runs that could possibly finally cool the SE by early March. We haven't seen an EPS 11-15 day run like that in a good number of days. Unfortunately, we've repeatedly been through this as fake news with cross polar flow, etc. Is this still more kayfabe?
 
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For as much as some people like to wish cast a central Pacific/modoki El Nino every damn winter (*cough* cough* Joe bastardi), it's doing us absolutely no good right now. Actually it's doing exactly the opposite in reinforcing this really crappy pattern we have right now.

Notice all the excess convection (-OLR) near the International Dateline in the central Pacific yet the equatorward propagating wave train emanating from the NE Pacific to SE US & western Atlantic is putting a huge ridge (solid contours) right smack over the E US.

News flash: the seasonal cycle, the background state, & internal variability actually matter!! Also, yes modoki El Nino forcing can still create and even enhance very crappy patterns around here, there's not always going to be a trough in the SE US.


Screen Shot 2019-02-14 at 2.51.41 PM.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
In a basic sense, momentarily ignoring how we'd need to achieve any of what I'm talking about below, in order to get rid of the SE US ridge we need to do one or more of the following:
1) Completely destroy or amplify the GOA/NP blocking high into the Pacific-arctic so that it dumps an absurd amount of cold air into the mean trough over the Hudson Bay/Lakes s.t. it slides SEward, squashing the SER into the Western Atlantic
2) Create a -NAO that retrogrades all the way towards the Davis Straits and eastern/northern Canada, forcing a persistent upper level trough over Atlantic Canada/New England that suppresses the high also well offshore. A merger of both blocks over the arctic would result in a polar vortex split that would allow a substantial piece of the PV to drop into Canada as we observed in January, what happens thereafter is up for speculation but at least gives us something we might be able to work w/ to produce a winter storm.
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Yeah that's what I was thinking too, if we were to actually get a solid -NAO block it might connect with the Pacific one splitting the PV and forcing colder air into the Eastern US and squashing the SER. We will be running out of time though as this is all 10+ days out and we will be at the very end of February IF this even happens.
 
I know the SER has been horrendous this jan/feb but it's been much worse in the past... With the models indicating several days in a row with copious amounts of rain, I happened to remember hearing about flooding in the Ohio valley back in 1937. I knew it must have been pretty warm at kbhm then because it rained something like 15 days straight up there with no snow. So I did a little digging, and came up with amazing numbers...GW kind of numbers!
Jan 1937 kbhm Birmingham ala....saw only 1 sub freezing low....only 3 days with lows below 40....11 days with lows in the 50.....
10 days with highs 70 +.....9 days with highs 60-70...
the bright spot was it was cooler at the end (50s/40s )than at the beginning. The brighter spot was Jan 1940:eek:
 
Stormlover said:
two weeks, not 16 days...but it's very valid to post that...the flooding threat will last beyond next week
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SMH ??‍♂️??‍♂️??‍♂️??‍♂️Really?? ??. This was on his post. It is a 384 hour map. Last time I checked 384 hours divided by 24 equals 384. We all know the models aren’t dependable after 7 days. E9E6AC9A-E5EA-4300-A3A1-0B749B12347E.jpeg
 
DarkKnight said:
SMH ??‍♂️??‍♂️??‍♂️??‍♂️Really?? ??. This was on his post. It is a 384 hour map. Last time I checked 384 hours divided by 24 equals 384. We all know the models aren’t dependable after 7 days. View attachment 15730
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Bet it’s close. No question that there is going to be copious amounts of rain. Lollipop details are tbd but I’m fairly certain the Apps are in trouble
 
DarkKnight said:
SMH ??‍♂️??‍♂️??‍♂️??‍♂️Really?? ??. This was on his post. It is a 384 hour map. Last time I checked 384 hours divided by 24 equals 384. We all know the models aren’t dependable after 7 days. View attachment 15730
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Jeez, sorry if it bothers you I posted someone's info on the flooding over two weeks/16 days, whatever, instead of a post that has nothing to do with the upcoming weather like many do...smh We always look ahead for snow chances, I have no idea why it was wrong to post about rain chances farther out.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Read the warnings in Cali. Gusts to 150mph. 4 feet of snow. Be hard to measure I’m sure. Winter isn’t over for the NC foothills and mountains. The moisture will hit some late season cold and produce. Possibly in a big dog.
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Fire ants were on the move today. Caught a gang of workers collecting persimmon minerals around noon. That tells me we have a shot at something before the first harvest moon in March (2nd-8th)
 
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