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Pattern Fabulous February

As has been stated many times this winter, the FV3 has a known bias of modeling high pressures too strong in the LR only to correct as we approach verification time. If the model doesn't back down, we will have a cad event in the favored areas. I don't want to get too caught up in this, but I think that we might be looking at the best chance of frozen precip since December.
 
Spurs up said:
pretty obvious where feI un

What you think Shawn?
Click to expand...

I currently favor NC, it initally started showing up through 2/3 of SC and almost to the coast. It's backed off little by little in state coverage (when the FV3 has had the ice deal at all).. but we will have to see if other model catches on or if this is a problem with the FV3 that actually, makes it worse in winter than the GFS (for this area). Too cold around these parts..

According to FV3 soundings, bad snow accumulation maps, and precip type, SC should have gotten rocked by Wintry precip back in December.. which of course made no sense. ;)
 
For the folks who never see 2mT’s trend colder in the LR....

Day 12 vs new Day 9

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ICON says no winter for 180 hours. I know you guys mostly hate it but it's warmer runs have turned out right sometimes...or maybe most of the time.
 
Improvements based off the gfs, HPs actually getting stronger with each consecutive run and we could use a high pressure in the plains like what this is showing to keep everything showed down in the south, this is a situation where you want a weak sheared wave
CBECE86C-397A-4895-82CC-866E0921C32F.gif
 
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