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Pattern Fabulous February

Rain Cold said:
Here's a good post from Isotherm in the MA forum, responding to psuhoffman (first post below). I bolded the part that I thought was the most important:

"Thanks... What do you think is the main cause of the SE ridge and inability to get a PNA ridge on guidance despite -soi and MJO phase 8? Error or time to admit its just not happening this year, even if we finally get the pacific forcing right?"

"The atmosphere is behaving much more akin to neutral ENSO rather than El Nino this winter, so I would discard the z500 composites for MJO/Ninos evincing the favorability in the p7-8 transition. However, once we're into the core of phase 8 in a couple of days, with strengthening near 8/1 threshold, that effect will manifest with the typical circa 7 day lag. So I expect guidance will finally trend more favorable with the PNA ridging after about February 22nd or so. The MJO wave is more slow-moving and amplified than usual as well, so the effects are enhanced as far as Western trough. Typical MJO progression is faster, but this has been the winter of interference from other tropical waves. Like I said, that post wasn't a total post mortem, and hopefully it will become abstract, especially for you all in the MA who are nearing normal already."
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So there is a lag??
 
wrong
snku_acc.us_ov.png
 
This is showing heavy snow for Asheville and the mountain areas, why does Jason on channel 13 show rain all next week?
 
MichaelJ said:
We do NOT want a strong El Nino next year because the Pac overwhelms the pattern with a zonal flow for the winter, the WHOLE winter
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There's a lot of internal variability amongst strong-super NINOs, collectively they're milder in the contiguous US but it's hard to broad brush any winter based on ENSO phase & intensity alone.

All of the following happened in strong-super NINO winters, most of us would kill for a storm like any of these in our backyards
December 2-3 1896 NC Snowmap.png
December 15-18 1930 NC Snowmap.png

January 25-27 1966 NC Snowmap.png
Feb 9-11 1973 Snowstorm NWS Wilmington.png
March 24-25 1983 NC Snowmap.gif
January 7-8 1988 NC Snowmap.gif
 
MichaelJ said:
This El Nino is not an El Nino at all as far as the SE is concerned. Oh the numbers indicate a weak Modoki El Nino, but the results to not equate with the predominate results from the history books. The actual verification would indicate a much more La Nina look than El Nino look and reminds me of the 1951-52 winter with a weak one which acted very similar to this years weather. It is just unlucky that all the signs pointed to an exciting winter here but instead we get a dud. Me and everyone else (including the professionals in this field) focused on the (anticipated) fastball coming at us when the weather was throwing a curve, swing and a miss
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Even 1951-52 cranked out a big dog right on time when you'd expect one in a NINO winter.
CLT-GSO I-85 special w/ @Myfrotho704_ hitting the jackpot at 7".

February 26-27 1952 NC Snowmap.png
 
Poimen said:
So there is a lag??
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I guess it depends on who you ask. I’ve heard yes and no. Like with so many other things that get dissected into oblivion here and other places, there seem to be nuances to every situation and variable and index and pattern and driver that renders a yes or no answer useless. I haven’t researched it, so I’ll have to rely on the answer by others that say yes their is a lag. Or no there isn’t. Clear as mud.

At the end of the day, it seems logical to me that a lag of some type exists. Otherwise the pattern would be instantaneously altered when the wave moved between phases.
 
GaWx said:
The Donald can still do something about this by just not signing the deal that would prevent the govt from shutting down again. Please Mr. President, do what’s best for our country. The FV3 becoming operational would be a disaster.
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He should at least say “You’re Fired” to the model’s architects. You would think our technology had advanced more than it has.


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ATLwxfan said:
He should at least say “You’re Fired” to the model’s architects. You would think our technology had advanced more than it has.


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It’s all about spending.

Europe devotes SO much more money and servers with the ability of computing power that simply embarrasses ours. Our “upgrades” are years behind Europe because of it. When the US Government decides to fund NOAA and NWP like Europe has, maybe we could have something similar to the euro. But until then we will always be second fiddle. We know of ways to make the model better, we just can’t afford to make the changes.


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Jon said:
It’s all about spending.

Europe devotes SO much more money and servers with the ability of computing power that simply embarrasses ours. Our “upgrades” are years behind Europe because of it. When the US Government decides to fund NOAA and NWP like Europe has, maybe we could have something similar to the euro. But until then we will always be second fiddle. We know of ways to make the model better, we just can’t afford to make the changes.


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While I agree with you in terms of that being the official story, it’s really stupid when you stand back and look at it. We’re running trillion dollar deficits, have trillions in debt as far as the eye can see, and print money like it’s going out of style. Cough up a mill for a server. I mean, come on.
 
I have a feeling these 00z model runs are going to be showing some different solutions and slowly and surly models will pick up a better pattern and dump this rïdgę
 
18z GEFS were very scattered with cold possibilities in the long range so the models definitely don’t have a good handle yet on what’s to come
 
Oh great! can’t wait.....

After being delayed by the government shutdown, FV3-GFS is now tentatively scheduled to go operational on Mar 20, pending successful completion of the 30-day technical test.


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Nick_boynton_ said:
I have a feeling these 00z model runs are going to be showing some different solutions and slowly and surly models will pick up a better pattern and dump this rïdgę
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I think it’s the opposite. I still think the SER is being underdone to be honest. The Euro Ensembles have lead the way with a strengthening SER D10. I think places like Birmingham and Atlanta may be looking a string of muggy wet days in the mid 70’s probably through the end of the month.


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ATLwxfan said:
I think it’s the opposite. I still think the SER is being underdone to be honest. The Euro Ensembles have lead the way with a strengthening SER D10. I think places like Birmingham and Atlanta may be looking a string of muggy wet days in the mid 70’s probably through the end of the month.


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I concur.
 
BIG FROSTY said:
Oh great! can’t wait.....

After being delayed by the government shutdown, FV3-GFS is now tentatively scheduled to go operational on Mar 20, pending successful completion of the 30-day technical test.


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This is good news since it isn’t going operational on March 1 and now they’re saying pending successful tech tests. Hopefully these technical tests will be a major fail. Can’t they just look back at the last 30 days and already call it a fail?? Then we wouldn’t even need the govt reshutdown to stop it from becoming operational!
 
GaWx said:
This is good news since it isn’t going operational on March 1 and now they’re saying pending successful tech tests. Hopefully these technical tests will be a major fail. Can’t they just look back at the last 30 days and already call it a fail?? Then we wouldn’t even need the govt reshutdown to stop it from becoming operational!
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All they need to do is come read this board . We have their answers


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Nick_boynton_ said:
18z GEFS were very scattered with cold possibilities in the long range so the models definitely don’t have a good handle yet on what’s to come
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I have to give you credit for the positivity. I’m pretty positive when it comes to winter weather but today’s runs really Changed my tune. I felt like the last 5 days or so things were trending better only to see the models once again turn to crap for us. I really feel our only hope at this point is to get a lucky late late February early March snow. It’ll have to be one of those perfect timed midnight plaster type storms.
 
The shorter range models are showing a bit more ice for northern Arkansas and northwest Tennessee Friday evening. It's more or less a "north of 40" event as is, but could leak further south as it's still trending that way.
 
snowlover91 said:
Interestingly the ICON came in MUCH colder for the storm around 144-156. Has heavy snow in Virginia and ice in northern/nw NC.
View attachment 15685
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Red flag, ICON is not to bad, normally when guidance is headed for the cliff, it’s already jumped but it actually looked better altho low placement is not the best but that CAD is better than most guidance, still think ice to start for the mountains
 
Ray Russell, by far the best high country NC weather man, is calling for wintry mix to all rain next week even up in the mountains. Dagger. He can nail a forecast from a week out no problem. Inside 5 days he’s unbeatable
 
Won’t be long before some CAD areas end up in the warm sector, lol, this run of the gfs looks like the cmc a few days ago, looks like the CMC May win this one
A49D417D-1FF9-4AE2-8C58-CEC834455F02.gif
 
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