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Pattern Fabulous February

deltadog03 said:
Well maybe my SOI theory will be wrong. Lol damn that’s an impressive ridge.
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Not to sound negative here but I deal with this index in my masters research and that’s because the soi is literally the noisiest and the worst index to use if you’re measuring tropical forcing, I don’t honestly know why people pay so much attention to it because we have much better ways to measure tropical forcing now than we did in the early-mid 20th century. The only real use the SOI has is for comparison of ancient ENSO events but even then I’d urge everyone to use it sparingly because you have to use very large smoothing filters to even get a signal. Point based indices like the SOI suck, there’s no getting around that fact, area averaging like EQ SOI, NIÑO 3.4, etc are better and those that use EOFs over a given region are arguably even better.
 
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GaWx said:
12Z GEFS: ugly almost til the end: can you say warmest El Nino on record in the SE?
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Well at least the one positive is spring will get an early start, if it's not going to snow and be cold then bring on the 70s. I'm sure the EPS and Euro run today will be quite toasty too.
 
This winter is/was undoubtedly an El Niño winter despite what the North American pattern looks like. I already said this several days ago but the big reason we’re warm right now is actually because a more formidable El Niño is trying to come on for the upcoming year, the pattern response in Feb and Mar from west-central Pacific convection/-SOI is actually for warmth in the SE US... The seasonal cycle and jet wavelengths matter a lot and people and pro mets alike ignore them assuming that the same forcing at different times of the year provides the same result and it clearly doesn’t, this feb is another fine example of that.
 
Last 20 runs of the GEFS for Day 10. Ridge was consistently modeled but as Larry has pointed out its verifying much stronger.
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Still, with that said, I don’t see a trough modeled in that sampling.

IF the GEFS is correct, we are moving toward the pattern change.

5-day
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11-16 day, look at the pacific. Completely different here.
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This is a smoothed 5 day mean, so it has Day 11 in there, which is this
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I know it’s a long way away, but 2/28 forward seems doable. At least for cold. I have my doubts a ridge will suddenly pop for this period solely due to the fact that we are finally getting rid of the pacific ridge.
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Of course, the euro has left little to be excited about. If I was a betting man, I’d be team EPS. I really hope the Euro EPS caves soon or we are in trouble.

I still think for a SE snow we need a -NAO at this point, and models aren’t bringing that around any time soon. Maybe the biggest question is do you want an early spring or normal temps?




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Good post, Jon.

The FV3 will give you all the -NAO you want...if you just wait long enough:

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The funny thing is, that last image is pretty much right on target with the look that JB has been predicting would take place from 2/15 - 3/15. The models show it from time to time, but they never get there.
 
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The only real positive large-scale takeaway in the long range continues to be the equatorward propagation of the Atlantic jet next week and cyclonic wave breaking near the Azores, which means we're going to make a big push to crank out a legitimate -NAO at the tail end of February into early March.

Remember, there's supposed to be a subtropical high in the means over the Azores, putting a big trough there will instigate an atmospheric traffic jam that may lead to significant Greenland blocking down the line but we'll see.
ecmwf-ens_z500a_atl_11.png
 
Rain Cold said:
Good post, Jon.

The FV3 will give you all the -NAO you want...if you just wait long enough:

View attachment 15653

View attachment 15654

The funny thing is, that last image is pretty much right on target with the look that JB has been predicting would take place from 2/15 - 3/15. The models show it from time to time, but they never get there.
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Yep. FV3 with a big fat -NAO bias
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Throughout the entire 12 Euro, it can be summarized as SER dominated with warmth on all days except the cold wedgie days in CAD areas.
 
Fountainguy97 said:
Very impressed here. That was a legit gust front. Rain was totally sideways and beating the windows. It was that type of beating on the windows that makes you second guess their strength haha.

I’d compare it to the wind that came through here with Michael. Maybe more intense than that.
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There were numerous wind reports across the southern half of the ATL metro (including here)

There was even a Tornado Waening issued for Clayton County.

Sadly, there was no lightning with the line (other than one lone strike around Macon).
 
GaWx said:
Per 12Z Euro: a wedged day with a high of upper 40s-50 or so would not make much difference. Besides the low that day would be warmer than normal.
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Going to guess the EPS will maintain the SER through the end of the run and it will look even stronger than the 0z. Please let us know! Hopefully, there will be some good severe opportunities, since we're going to be so warm.
 
First Guess or Early Guess.
For Spring into Summer into Fall.

Web/jon/ Gawx in laymans terms/ sensible weather. It sounds like we have been in the infant stages of a building long duration el nino that has its genesis from back in the late summer/fall 2018 and should continue to strengthen or build to a climax into the upcoming fall /early winter 2020. If that is a correct assumption on my part, then what flavor should we expect each season coming up as we transition into spring,summer,fall 2019. Obviously Hurricane season would be fighting shear alot. But what about spring severe season, summer heat . Most importantly will we continue to see above normal rainfall each month the rest of 2019?
 
Another El Nino this Spring/Summer season would likely bring us near normal temps and above average rain for both seasons. Depending on the strength and placement of the warmest waters, would also likely mean a normal to mild and wet winter next year, much like this one. However there is a long way to go until then so no sense worrying about it right now. I will say if it is a strong, or God forbid very strong Nino, we will torch next winter.
 
Rain Cold said:
Going to guess the EPS will maintain the SER through the end of the run and it will look even stronger than the 0z. Please let us know! Hopefully, there will be some good severe opportunities, since we're going to be so warm.
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Overall, it looked about the same as the 0Z EPS when averaged out. Even with the wedged days, the raw 12Z EPS output still has KATL averaging about 8 warmer than normal the rest of the month. And that's not even taking into account the strong cold bias. Without taking into account the cold bias, the 12Z EPS is warm enough to get KATL its warmest El Nino on record. if then the cold bias were taken into account, ATL could even threaten to have its warmest Feb on record, which was just last year! KATL's two warmest Febs are from the last 2 years.
 
MichaelJ said:
Another El Nino this Spring/Summer season would likely bring us near normal temps and above average rain for both seasons. Depending on the strength and placement of the warmest waters, would also likely mean a normal to mild and wet winter next year, much like this one. However there is a long way to go until then so no sense worrying about it right now. I will say if it is a strong, or God forbid very strong Nino, we will torch next winter.
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El Nino summers are beneficial in the southeast. We usually end up with lower than average cooling costs and don't have to worry about water restrictions. It's a decent trade-off, really. So, lower cooling costs and lower heating in the winter. It's actually a good thing, unless you have an aging, leaky roof. I believe the southeast has it's best winter in a "neutral" state. I guess you would need to transition from El Nino to La Nina to get a neutral and it would have to be timed perfectly.
 
NCSNOW said:
First Guess or Early Guess.
For Spring into Summer into Fall.

Web/jon/ Gawx in laymans terms/ sensible weather. It sounds like we have been in the infant stages of a building long duration el nino that has its genesis from back in the late summer/fall 2018 and should continue to strengthen or build to a climax into the upcoming fall /early winter 2020. If that is a correct assumption on my part, then what flavor should we expect each season coming up as we transition into spring,summer,fall 2019. Obviously Hurricane season would be fighting shear alot. But what about spring severe season, summer heat . Most importantly will we continue to see above normal rainfall each month the rest of 2019?
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The strongest wet anomalies for strong El Ninos are Nov-Mar from what I recall. But, yes, I'd think most months would have a better chance to be wetter than normal than drier though most likely a couple would end up dry due to randomness of sorts. Sometimes months like August-Sep are drier than normal due to a quiet tropics. The best news is that a summer torch would be less likely than normal though the summer of 2015 was actually pretty torchy.
 
We should have known by how active hurricane season was last year, that that’s not typical of a Niño and this winter could be in Jeopardy! If you have a Niño, the tropical Atlantic is going to be relatively quiet as compared to normal!
 
Here's a good post from Isotherm in the MA forum, responding to psuhoffman (first post below). I bolded the part that I thought was the most important:

"Thanks... What do you think is the main cause of the SE ridge and inability to get a PNA ridge on guidance despite -soi and MJO phase 8? Error or time to admit its just not happening this year, even if we finally get the pacific forcing right?"

"The atmosphere is behaving much more akin to neutral ENSO rather than El Nino this winter, so I would discard the z500 composites for MJO/Ninos evincing the favorability in the p7-8 transition. However, once we're into the core of phase 8 in a couple of days, with strengthening near 8/1 threshold, that effect will manifest with the typical circa 7 day lag. So I expect guidance will finally trend more favorable with the PNA ridging after about February 22nd or so. The MJO wave is more slow-moving and amplified than usual as well, so the effects are enhanced as far as Western trough. Typical MJO progression is faster, but this has been the winter of interference from other tropical waves. Like I said, that post wasn't a total post mortem, and hopefully it will become abstract, especially for you all in the MA who are nearing normal already."
 
Rain Cold said:
Here's a good post from Isotherm in the MA forum, responding to psuhoffman (first post below). I bolded the part that I thought was the most important:

"Thanks... What do you think is the main cause of the SE ridge and inability to get a PNA ridge on guidance despite -soi and MJO phase 8? Error or time to admit its just not happening this year, even if we finally get the pacific forcing right?"

"The atmosphere is behaving much more akin to neutral ENSO rather than El Nino this winter, so I would discard the z500 composites for MJO/Ninos evincing the favorability in the p7-8 transition. However, once we're into the core of phase 8 in a couple of days, with strengthening near 8/1 threshold, that effect will manifest with the typical circa 7 day lag. So I expect guidance will finally trend more favorable with the PNA ridging after about February 22nd or so. The MJO wave is more slow-moving and amplified than usual as well, so the effects are enhanced as far as Western trough. Typical MJO progression is faster, but this has been the winter of interference from other tropical waves. Like I said, that post wasn't a total post mortem, and hopefully it will become abstract, especially for you all in the MA who are nearing normal already."
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Thanks for posting this. I hope this ends up verifying. The modeling had been going in the direction of a +PNA by around 2/25. Unfortunately, the trend since yesterday has been the SER holding on through the end of the month. And the models have on average had a strong cold bias, especially out past 10 days.
 
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