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Pattern Fabulous February

If these strong highs keep dropping into the Plains, there WILL be a SE winter storm at some point, given how active the pattern has been and continues to be. It happens 3 times over the next 8 days, according to the FV-3. The result ends up being a well-timed event:

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_35.png
 
Rain Cold said:
If these strong highs keep dropping into the Plains, there WILL be a SE winter storm at some point, given how active the pattern has been and continues to be. It happens 3 times over the next 8 days, according to the FV-3. The result ends up being a well-timed event:

View attachment 15005
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Looks like another rain-fest in SC. Maybe later on we'll land one.
On a more serious note, it does seem things have trended for the better the past few runs, which is very encouraging to see.
 
Rain Cold said:
If these strong highs keep dropping into the Plains, there WILL be a SE winter storm at some point, given how active the pattern has been and continues to be. It happens 3 times over the next 8 days, according to the FV-3. The result ends up being a well-timed event:

View attachment 15005
Click to expand...

yeah, one of these gotta do something, decently positioned trough with this once aswell, when the oscillations improve the threat of SE wintry weather would improve a whole lot, but at the very least a in-situ cad with Onset ice changing to rain seems very possible
 
Let's just hope these trends continue, some hope is better than no hope and if over the next few days the rug gets pulled out from under us again..... well we're running out of time at that point. However, given all indicators I am cautiously optimistic about a strong finish to Feb/Winter.

Models have been hinting at those strong highs dropping down for some time now, so I'd at least give that some credence
 
Rain Cold said:
If these strong highs keep dropping into the Plains, there WILL be a SE winter storm at some point, given how active the pattern has been and continues to be. It happens 3 times over the next 8 days, according to the FV-3. The result ends up being a well-timed event:

View attachment 15005
Click to expand...

Yeah, that looks like a doozie for NC. Now if only the Euro ends up showing the same thing and it was inside 7 days at least.
 
So, check out the evolution of the FV-3 over the last 4 days' worth of runs. Things were looking pretty bleak. Granted, nothing is set in stone, and this all may go to pot tonight. But it shows how much (read "how little") faith we should have in these models in fantasy land. Even 10 days is pushing it. But I think you'll like the evolution, here, which isn't surprising, given that we're moving away from the significant stall in the warm phases with the MJO. These maps are all valid for 12z 2/15 (240 hours from the latest run):

0z Sat

0zSat.png

12z Sat

12zSat.png

0z Sun

0zSun.png

12z Sun

12zSun.png

0z Mon

0zMon.png

12z Mon

12zMon.png

0z Tues

0zTues.png

12z Tues

12zTues.png

And that one sort of looks like the late Euro panels we've been seeing recently. It feels like we're generally moving in the right direction here, folks.
 
Kylo said:
Big MA/NE snow day 7-8 on Euro. Snowpack

View attachment 15018
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That is a really legit point. I remember @Webberweather53 really hammering on that last winter. If we get the kind of pattern where we are, in fact, seeing highs drop into the plains along with an active southern stream, then marginal events may end up being much more likely to be wintry, given the efficiency of cold air transport.
 
tennessee storm said:
that model has been so terrible... its unreal... by far worst....imo
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The FV3 has actually been pretty good inside 6 days. Someone posted 5h verification scores awhile back and it was right there with the Euro and far better than the CMC/GFS. For my neck of the woods at least it has been excellent.
 
GaWx said:
Meanwhile, the 12Z King is a "hot" mess in more ways than one. Ugly maps and much warmer than the 0Z.
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Yep. Euro was a big crap salad. Hiccup? Not entirely surprised though as I think last 10 days of February is where it’s at. If anywhere at all..?
 
snowlover91 said:
The FV3 has actually been pretty good inside 6 days. Someone posted 5h verification scores awhile back and it was right there with the Euro and far better than the CMC/GFS. For my neck of the woods at least it has been excellent.
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snowlover91 said:
Only 7 days out and makes sense given the cold/dry airmass that will be in place as this moves in.

View attachment 15024
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And it seems really gun ho about the 12th to 14th. If we can just get it to hold onto this look for a couple more days.
 
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