Not much of a change from last run with confluence
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Pattern Fabulous February
- Thread starter PEA_RIDGE
- Start date
Don't sleep on the initial fronto band with this system late Monday into Tuesday
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pcbjr
Member
Maybe this is banter, but under the circumstances, maybe not ...
It would be nice, if not great, to post and see posts showing winter in February, and the same would have been nice in January, and would have been certainly welcomed going back to November (exception being Brick's NC December miracle) ...
but ... no such posts are there, nor should there be, and any that pretend otherwise are, frankly, just pretense ...
Like an old movie, wish I had a brain, a heart, some courage ... but Dorothy ... this winter is, has been, and remains that of the Wicked Witch of the West ... and controlled by an Oz whose curtain we haven't and can't get behind ...
... in other words ... time to wake up ...
...and with that, Good Night ...
It would be nice, if not great, to post and see posts showing winter in February, and the same would have been nice in January, and would have been certainly welcomed going back to November (exception being Brick's NC December miracle) ...
but ... no such posts are there, nor should there be, and any that pretend otherwise are, frankly, just pretense ...
Like an old movie, wish I had a brain, a heart, some courage ... but Dorothy ... this winter is, has been, and remains that of the Wicked Witch of the West ... and controlled by an Oz whose curtain we haven't and can't get behind ...
... in other words ... time to wake up ...
...and with that, Good Night ...
Yep initial fronto band could easily overperform in a good way from say Mount Airy back down to Hickory. Maybe more areas. Bares watching.
NWS Blacksburg beefing up the wording to strong iso lift with all snow and periods of snow next week. There will be some heavy snow but the battle zone will likely be within their forecast zone...bringing GSP zones into the freezing rain or heavy cold rain near Asheville.
One thing I have been thinking about with this MJO is what Larry posted about the phases. Here is a look at what Feb-Apr looks like. Now here is the thing, MJO is just 1 piece of the puzzle in the grand scheme of things. I DO think we have another legitimate shot at winter in the SE. I would the 20th-early March is that window. Typically there is a 10 day (ish) window of lag for it to help pattern changes. SOI started drop about 2-3 days ago. So..... I think we will see the pattern setup with some better changes but it’s gonna be a min or 2. I know we are running out of time tho. I think toward the latter half of the month either that SE ridge is wrong on the models or the MJO phase is wrong.
I could be wrong for sure, and please someone tell me if I have that wrong so I can learn for sure.
I could be wrong for sure, and please someone tell me if I have that wrong so I can learn for sure.
Jon
Member
I’m hopeful...
MJO phase 7
Current pattern
MJO phase 8 Feb
MJO Phase 8 March
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Fountainguy97
Member
Update to the wind storm this evening:
My neighbor put her trash bin out before the storm. Somehow the wind took both trash bags out and left them in the road but has carried away the bin.
It is no where in sight here in the dark with a not so bright flashlight.
The bin must have flown at least 30+ yards away from where it was. But I’m telling I can’t find it anywhere haha
Will have to track it down in the Morning!
I’m upping my wind estimate to a gust of 50mph. Radar had 55-60 only 1,000 feet above me.
My neighbor put her trash bin out before the storm. Somehow the wind took both trash bags out and left them in the road but has carried away the bin.
It is no where in sight here in the dark with a not so bright flashlight.
The bin must have flown at least 30+ yards away from where it was. But I’m telling I can’t find it anywhere haha
Will have to track it down in the Morning!
I’m upping my wind estimate to a gust of 50mph. Radar had 55-60 only 1,000 feet above me.
That little disturbance on sat is still worth watching, this still has the potential to produce a decent snow across NC and VA
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Judging by hour 144, looks flatter across the SE with weaker ridging than last run, watch it still come out of nowhere
She’ll be north this run. Wedge took a step back
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Warmer run on 0z! Hit the lights
Even with a south trend so far, wedge sucks this run, something always gotta go wrong 
Yep heavy precip axis was well south of 18z
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Highs weaker in NE! Yep, we suck!
NCSNOW
Member
HP only 1028 is why. Hopefully hiccup and gets back in 1030s future runs.
Just need that high pressure to the north to strengthen about few mb and a lot of people would in good shape what that look. Still 6 days out plenty of time.
MA is losing this storm as well
yeah I think the problem had more to do with high pressure strength and less to do with the ridging this run
Jessy89
Member
The models are just doing what they done all year. With every other system show ice for few days and then it adjusts to rain. As the event gets closer it’s done this all year long. So it’s very predictable
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Ridge is going to make this thing explode so I think the best you can hope for in WNC and maybe the Piedmont is a strong high pressure to maybe reel in some wintry precip at onset. Other than that I’m not seeing much here unless the SER trends weaker inside 7 days which is highly doubtful
This run was actually a little bit better, at least we got rid of overwhelming ridging to our SE, get stronger HP and that’s not a bad look for many CAD areas, ridging can easily change next run tho, I’d still lean towards the gefs having a slightly stronger SER with the upcoming run
Agree, all the SER has done is trend stronger as verification gets closer this Feb, it would be pure luck for it to trend the other way
If you like cold rain you’re going to love hr234. Beautiful wedge with precip moving due north into the Carolinas
Rain
CMC is holding up with a muddy solution for much of the SE
I’ve been tracking winter weather for over a decade and this is by far the most predictable wash rinse repeat pattern I’ve ever seen. Cold push through the middle of the country, boundary stalls east of the mountains, cold settles in for a day or two, cold evacuates, Cutter, Cutter, repeat. Literally the only ingredient we’ve added in the last couple weeks is the SER. It’s a professional forecasters dream to get one of these patterns. KGSP hasn’t had one hard forecast for 2 months now. Hindsite is 20/20 but this is really incredible
Agree, that’s the only thing that has really showed up at any range for awhile now. Even the coastal lows abandoned the long range some time ago. And the one time we get the cold chasing air event into short range, it serves as a fail for Mississippi through GA.
Brent
Member
wow the Euro is beyond awful
it rains pretty far up the east coast
it rains pretty far up the east coast
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
You'll rarely find a day 10 ensemble mean that's warmer than this although I think this year will be glad to hold our beers.
ATLwxfan
Member
Luckily it is centered over the mid Atlantic which is a win, pure and simple.
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Well maybe my SOI theory will be wrong. Lol damn that’s an impressive ridge.
Nomanslandva
Member
I have a friend in the SLC UT area. Maybe I should plan a visit. That was a huge jump to disappointment with the EURO and EPS. Tabbing through the individual members, even out to 14 days, it looks so much worse.
Plenty of time for the CAD to come back for the climo areas. Maybe more. I’m all aboard the moisture train. May not know the thermal profile until the last minute.
Out of curiosity can u show what the SOI is doing rn
Also two days ago it looked like cold coming Honestly we just need that +PNA ridge on the west coast ... in another two days it could look completely different.. if I don’t believe the cold models show in long range then don’t believe warm either until it verifies
The warmth has been verifying quite well vs. any cold runs that have popped up. Just because we may not fully understand why that is the case, doesn't mean it's not the case. The SOI has been diving the past couple of days. -25 today, I think.
The MJO continues to look on track to get into the favorable phases. The SOI is looking good. The EPS is absolutely awful. The GEFS continues to be the bright spot in the LR, but it's hard to believe it will verify, given what we've been seeing. The good news, is that the SER can't last forever.
The storm threat next week is predicated on a strong high preceding the storm and locking in. For this to happen, you want confluence in the NE. That would come as a result of a strong low anomaly near the 50/50 position. That low would ideally sit, anchoring in the high. In order for it to remain in place, we need blocking or ridging near Greenland to hold it. Doesn't look like we get that. The low scoots away. The high slides northeast...meaning it doesn't press far enough south, it isn't strong enough, and it doesn't remain long enough to provide a cold feed into the SE US.
So, no blocking means transient cold. Transient cold means threading the needle. Some model runs have done this. It still might happen. But given the tendency of models to over-strengthen highs and press them too far south in the LR, the odds are really low with this scenario. But it's worth watching.
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Although what you say is true to some extent and we can hope, the reality is that warm/stronger SER have been mostly verifying and cold mostly not due to a pretty stout cold bias. So, a betting man should take the warmer side.
yes I do agree unfortunately but I still have hope in the SOI theory plus MJO. I’m hoping is with this recent tank .. (which has really significantly happened only over the last two days including today’s contribution) the models will start showing favorable festures pop up now that we need and hopefully we can get these silly east coast ridges out of here