Nice trend.... even though I had to look at it like 10 times to figure out which way it was going Lol
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Pattern Fabulous February
- Thread starter PEA_RIDGE
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
We need that trough over eastern Russia to dig like there's no tomorrow into the mid-latitude North Pacific to amplify the downstream ridge to give us a look we want w/ a SE Canada vortex coupled to a AK ridge. We'll have to string a trend like this together for several days in a row to turn our fortunes around around mid month.
Went to bed.. lol.
It’s hard to believe anything with the models at this moment. We all got burned a week ago with the snow it had. I do think we will get a 2-3 week period after February 15th when the pattern does flip back and we don’t have to worry about a SER.
snowlover91
Member
My rule of thumb is we need a model consensus on a winter threat and inside 5 days to call it a legit threat. So far the only one that fit the bill was the early December system and that one panned out for quite a few folks in NC.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Yeah, the FV3 latched onto that storm early, but the others didn't come around until we were at least inside 7 days.
Flurry
Member
I would even reduce that number to 3 days...LOL
Kylo
Member
SOI going to take in about a week...to little to late though? Phase 8 coming. But we lost arctic, for now.
After all was said and done, seems the Icon wasn't so bad with the last event out that way. The 12z has a 1044 HP overhead allowing enough cold air to get involved for a small window of some snow flakes through MS, AL with surface temperatures above freezing.
Nothing accumulating, one would guess, but flakes flying in the heavier bands.
Kylo
Member
As a note...correlation for SOI in Jan/Feb higher than March. So...to little to late, maybe.
The higher resolution of the ICON may very well win out here. Here is the 06z GFS and you can see at one frame, it has the high over head (stronger even) and it wants to precipitate with some Wintry, but fizzles out.
Now hold on a second. We're not supposed to get involved in this
To go with my above post about the ICON / GFS, the 00z Euro is also hinting. Once again, precipitation tries to break out (fizzles), with a high pressure over head. Of course, heavier precipitation would help pull that 850mb 0c line down. the 32F line is not far off at this point for many.
don’t let that map fool you. Cad holds on for maybe some onset ice but seeing how the rest of our onset events have gone this winter I wouldn’t worry too much about it
The actual accumulation map is definitely off, but it would possibly be flakes for a good many IF the moisture is heavier (ICON hints at this) than other modeling. The lower levels are above freezing, 35-36F and flakes mixing in would seem most probable if the ICON were taken verbatim. The 32F line, though, is not far off on other modeling (like the Euro) which could lead to some freezing drizzle at the onset.
Just getting around to looking at recent modeling.. and the Euro definitely has my interest to go with a little what I was saying about I-20 not having that "threat" this season, yet as we head into the prime-time climo for it.
You can see on the 00z Euro's end, that the Gulf is starting to brew something up with cold air filtering in. Not quite sure where it would go on further frames, but it would be the peak time to have a chance in the deep South. Other modeling has shown hints (much further out, like the 384 hr GFS of something like this being possible.
I was figuring if we do get the threat down this way, it will be a little bit earlier than the 00z GFS being past Feb. 20th. I'm not making a forecast but the 13-18th doesn't look horrible if we can get the SE ridge to back off a bit.
You can see on the 00z Euro's end, that the Gulf is starting to brew something up with cold air filtering in. Not quite sure where it would go on further frames, but it would be the peak time to have a chance in the deep South. Other modeling has shown hints (much further out, like the 384 hr GFS of something like this being possible.
I was figuring if we do get the threat down this way, it will be a little bit earlier than the 00z GFS being past Feb. 20th. I'm not making a forecast but the 13-18th doesn't look horrible if we can get the SE ridge to back off a bit.
snowlover91
Member
The FV3 has a system of interest for the 11-12th. Not much precip to work with but if things juice up a little bit and move in while the airmass is still fairly cold/dry it could be interesting for some.
snowlover91
Member
The FV3 for days has been showing some CAD ice around the 11-12th, the newest run is showing .2-.4" of qpf falling as something icy so worth keeping an eye on at least. The start of this potential event is only 6 days out.
