• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Fabulous February

Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I think Mack mentioned it a day or two ago. We haven’t had any overly impressive wedges this winter to bring sub freezing temps before precipitation arrives but we’ve had many that just brought 40’s(I’ve lost count). The wedge is active it just hasn’t delivered the way we wanted it to. For this reason I’m expecting a quiet spring around the upstate as far as severe wx is concerned
Click to expand...

We’ll score with summertime downbursts/microbursts, were good at that here in the Carolinas ☹️ Would be good to keep severe wx outa here because it only takes one, like the one back in gso, that exact rotation that hit gso with the tornado went over my house, it was strong to my south then weakened on my house then gained strength and produced a tornado
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
80 in Columbia right now. Grief. Could get dicey down there
Click to expand...

Warmer than a good chunk of the potential risky modeling had (soundings wise) of 72-73F. Not saying we have the severe parameters of doom or anything, but I could definitely see something popping off if a couple storms can get going in the marginal setup.
 
NWMSGuy said:
I noticed that too! Wonder why they only state heavy precip?
Click to expand...
because they don't know where the line will be:
The upper-level high pressure over the Southeast is likely to support enhanced moisture flow out of the Gulf of Mexico, fueling this storm system as it moves along the front. With the forecast surface high pressure and cold air temperatures on the northern side of the frontal boundary, there is a threat for a mix of snow, ice, and rain Feb 18-19. The southern and central Appalachians are very likely to receive a large snow event (+6 inch per day) from this storm system; however, inconsistency between model runs make it difficult to discern where the snow/rain line is likely to align for the lower elevations and for what duration it would remain snow. However, it is clear that a mix is likely, so heavy precipitation is forecast at this time.
 
Ice storm for the mountains. Very realistic I can see that happening


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Bright blue spot is 2.82"
zr_acc.us_ma.png
 
Just got dark here, weird individual cells popping up out ahead the line even in the wedged in air, severe storm to my south, (I’m not home)
 
Huntsville NWS mentioning snow Mon night/Tues am in their discussion:
forecast is too uncertain to include any snowfall accumulations at
this point.
 
Yep tbh I never put any faith into 30+ degree freezing rain events. Need it colder. Half inch of ice will be limited to a few counties in the CAD. This is NOT a heavy widespread ice storm pattern. more of weak potentially widespread ice pattern for western NC.
 
Currently I think temps are a joke. Way too warm leading up to the storm to promote major icing near the surface. Screams heavy rain for most with heavy snow or mixed bag closer to Boone to DC. We shall see.
 
Storms must of been on a strengthening trend, severe tstorm warnings popping up, including for my area that I’m in atm but it’s already passed
 
Tarheel1 said:
Red flag alert!! That map can never verify!! The mountain tops getting ZR, while not much in the Piedmont, will never, ever happen
Click to expand...

Actually it depends on where the warn nose is. Our early November ZR event had me at 1400 feet right at 32 and I only got about .2 ZR. But the areas south of town at 2000 - 3500 feet got smoked with ZR. On the other hand, Sunday evening, I had another .1 ZR and those same locations were at 40f. Not saying what is modeled is right. Just saying elevation helps in some of these events.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Charlotte to Raleigh really needs artic air for a few days before something like this to see winter storm conditions. It’s going to be mild leading up and prob just rain buckets as a result.
Click to expand...
Preach. It’s nice to hear some rational thinking in here for a change! I can look a the fresh mud puddles in my front yard and make a 100% prediction that it isn’t going to snow/sleet/zr in the next 10 days
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top