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Pattern Fabulous February

This winter has been pockmarked with W-NW piedmont & mountain ice storms, that's the climatologically favored solution with the threat around day 7-8 on the models and this is the solution that'll require the least amount of effort for our pattern to produce.

November 14-15 2018 NC Snowmap.png
November 23-24 2018 NC Snowmap.png
January 12-13 2019 NC Snowmap.png
January 23 2019 NC Snowmap.jpg
 
End of February is starting to look like the last hoorah. How much worse is snow climo by then?
 
Webberweather53 said:
This definitely has considerably more credence as a legitimate threat than the phantom storm everyone was gushing over last week on the Fv3.
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The Fv3 proved to be out to lunch last week without a doubt. My point is that this is only 1 run of the Euro and while it makes this interesting it would be better to see if we can get some consistency with it too. The 3 run trend for the 12z runs is definitely a good trend with stronger HP and in a better CAD position but again I'd like to see some consistency and EPS support here.
ecmwf_mslpaNorm_us_fh168_trend.gif
 
CAPE & diminished diurnal heating are going to be big limiting factors, but folks in upstate SC down to the midlands should keep a weary eye out for a brief spin-up tornado later this evening given the rather high amount of horizontal convergence, and shear between Columbia & Charlotte.
You don't have to be an expert to see this boundary and the baroclinicity associated with it.
Most likely nothing will come of this but there's definitely a legitimate chance a tornado or two could appear as the line of storms over Georgia moves in.

Screen Shot 2019-02-12 at 2.42.00 PM.png
 
Stormlover said:
not so, verification scores say otherwise..FV3 is ahead of the GFS also
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It fluctuates a bit back and forth but the latest update actually indicates the CMC is outperforming the Fv3 and the GFS at the 5H level 120 hours out. The Euro, UK and CMC are actually the top 3 performers right now and that's sad when the CMC is outperforming the GFS AND the "improved" Fv3.
5H 5 Day .jpg

It's also worth noting the 5H bias, the Fv3 is still HORRIBLE while the Euro is closest to reality. After seeing the Fv3 verification scores in recent days and how it's been consistently too cold and failed with the storm last week I have to say it's been very disappointing and is in need of major changes before being released.
5H Bias .jpg
 
Webberweather53 said:
CAPE & diminished diurnal heating are going to be big limiting factors, but folks in upstate SC down to the midlands should keep a weary eye out for a brief spin-up tornado later this evening given the rather high amount of horizontal convergence, and shear between Columbia & Charlotte.
You don't have to be an expert to see this boundary and the baroclinicity associated with it.
Most likely nothing will come of this but there's definitely a legitimate chance a tornado or two could appear as the line of storms over Georgia moves in.

View attachment 15589
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Meh, 48 degrees here, but this...9715E6E5-900B-4899-8674-70F53A1658A6.png
 
Unlike the 12Z GEFS, the 12Z EPS refuses to get rid of the SER in the 11-15. Actually, it warms the SE to solidly warmer than normal 2/23-27. Sigh. This is so tiresome to see day after day after day after day after...…..it never ends! And if you like not so cold rain, that period is rainy on the EPS.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I'm also pretty sure the algorithm Maue uses on weathermodels for the EPS removes snow due to ZR/IP thus that threat may not be explicitly denoted here.
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I'm thinking they may have shifted to an icier look rather than snow. There is a 1034 HP in a similar position to the OP run but more of a SER that would pump in warmer air aloft. If the snow maps remove the ZR/IP as they should then it would make sense the snow numbers would be reduced while subsequently the ice totals might be higher.

1550003136112.png
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We're about 10 degrees below what was forecast today. Finally dropped to 46 just now. It had been 47 since I woke up
 
NWMSGuy said:
I noticed that too! Wonder why they only state heavy precip?
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They don't know for sure what its gonna come down as. Obv they have a better idea than us, but the door is still open for most everyone in that area
 
Based on the many 100s of runs of the major models I've viewed the last few months, the strength of the SER has so often been fooling the consensus. I think that has been a major component of the cold bias. Why do the models so often underestimate the strength of the SER only a fews days out only to have to so often strengthen it on subsequent runs and/or adjust storm tracks westward? What is the met. reason for this? Anyone know? Does it have anything to do with the SW N Atlantic being so warm? I know Webb said that is only a secondary or even tertiary influence but is that screwing up the models or not? Any guesses?
 
GaWx said:
Based on the many 100s of runs of the major models I've viewed the last few months, the strength of the SER has so often been fooling the consensus. I think that has been a major component of the cold bias. Why do the models so often underestimate the strength of the SER only a fews days out only to have to so often strengthen it on subsequent runs and/or adjust storm tracks westward? What is the met. reason for this? Anyone know? Does it have anything to do with the SW N Atlantic being so warm? I know Webb said that is only a secondary or even tertiary influence but is that screwing up the models or not? Any guesses?
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Many winters back, long before this forum and even American (the old Eastern days), there was a stout SER that would not go away and kept winter warm in the SE and MA (DT Land), and DT repeatedly referred to it is the "Pig Ridge" (using a few colorful adjectives along the way as well); seems to me he was complaining about models not "reading" the SER right and messing up his analysis.
Doesn't answer your question, Larry, but it does show, I guess, that it's not an altogether unique phenomenon.
Best!
Phil
 
Jessy89 said:
The storm next week will be rain. I’m not being sucked in again but for entertainment purposes I’m watching it. Severe weather season will be bad I think


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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I think Mack mentioned it a day or two ago. We haven’t had any overly impressive wedges this winter to bring sub freezing temps before precipitation arrives but we’ve had many that just brought 40’s(I’ve lost count). The wedge is active it just hasn’t delivered the way we wanted it to. For this reason I’m expecting a quiet spring around the upstate as far as severe wx is concerned
 
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