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Pattern Fabulous February

Haha FV3 way south. weird turn. I looke at last Wednesdays 18z FV3 and GFS. AT that point the FV still had a major storm here but the regular GFS had gotten the news that it was a Chicago storm. This time, FV is south but things should be getting dialed in. GFS and Euro are much closer this time where last week the euro was never in line with the murcan models.
 
Latest on the storms from WRAL.

Some severe weather is being warned for to our southwest near Charlotte and that line is approaching. With our warm front still in the area this evening we have to be concerned that some storms locally could have gusty winds. We will see this line move through over the next few hours.
 
0da2449749004f8cc8569cfccf6b5a98.jpg


FV3 clown map...

This is mostly snow RDU north.

***This is sleet/ZR contamination south of wake county for sure


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Jon said:
0da2449749004f8cc8569cfccf6b5a98.jpg


FV3 clown map...

This is mostly snow RDU north.

***This is sleet/ZR contamination south of wake county for sure


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

8 days out and the FV3 is not backing down. More importantly, the Euro went towards the FV3 last run. Going to be interesting to see if it stays that way.
 
Jon said:
0da2449749004f8cc8569cfccf6b5a98.jpg


FV3 clown map...

This is mostly snow RDU north.

***This is sleet/ZR contamination south of wake county for sure


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Can you post one for areas back to the west?
 
Brick Tamland said:
Latest on the storms from WRAL.

Some severe weather is being warned for to our southwest near Charlotte and that line is approaching. With our warm front still in the area this evening we have to be concerned that some storms locally could have gusty winds. We will see this line move through over the next few hours.
Click to expand...
Warm front is close by here sitting at 55/55 waiting for the quick jump into the 60s

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Brick Tamland said:
Yes, but both have a storm and showing the heaviest totals in the same location.
Click to expand...
This has happened before. You have one wonky model showing big snow for central NC. And an ensemble member. And at 8 days out. It looks pretty, but it’s going to be difficult to get a cold air feed locked in place for the storm.
 
SD said:
The most disappointing part is the models having a big azores low and developing scandy ridge in the d7-10 period only to wash it out shortly after

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You are articulate, sir, and the input helps all here ... Thanks! ;):):cool:
 
SD said:
Fv3 doesn't dig the shortwave into the SW. Instead it kicks more north possibly due to the wave trailing it. Since it doesn't dig you get less response from the SE ridge. This allows for a much less amplified colder system

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Not sure who has been keeping track but I wonder if a lot of these shortwaves from the southwest have been digging more closer to verification or less? I would guess if we’ve had more issues with the SER this winter season then digging has been the trend.
 
Very impressed here. That was a legit gust front. Rain was totally sideways and beating the windows. It was that type of beating on the windows that makes you second guess their strength haha.

I’d compare it to the wind that came through here with Michael. Maybe more intense than that.
 
These combinations scweaam ice in NC, need the SER to stop trending west, ima about to see how Newfoundland area looks
B29C584E-4B23-4195-87CB-C5B472FB57C4.gifE032A8B7-6928-47F3-81B8-5D4F18A57A2F.gif
 
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