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Pattern Fabulous February

GaWx said:
Although what you say is true to some extent and we can hope, the reality is that warm/stronger SER have been mostly verifying and cold mostly not due to a pretty stout cold bias. So, a betting man should take the warmer side.
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But there is cause and effect here. Why is there a cold bias? Saying the models are cold in the SE just because doesn't make sense.

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SD said:
But there is cause and effect here. Why is there a cold bias? Saying the models are cold in the SE just because doesn't make sense.

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The cold bias isn’t just in the SE but I think it has likely been at or near the strongest there. I’m also trying to figure out why. But it is for real obviously. That doesn’t mean that won’t change down the road but I see no reason to bet on that right now.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I’m leaning towards the warmer eps, SER is a force you can’t bet against, we can still score in March here
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Wish I could add more this morning. All I will say is bet against the SER at your own peril. The only time you will see a SER disappear or weaken is in the long range before it becomes established. Once it’s here it’s here. That’s been my experience
 
GaWx said:
Thanks to the very persistent SER, Radiant is forecasting KATL’s Feb to be at 52.6, 9th warmest going back to when records started in 1879 and THE warmest of any of the 48 or so El Niño’s! This would bring the KATL DJF up to 49.0, which would be the 2nd warmest El Niño DJF with only 2015-6’s 49.5 being warmer. The 3rd warmest is 1991-2’s 48.6.

But there is a glimmer of good news on the 0Z GEFS day 14 that suggests a possible pattern change for the last few days of Feb into early March: the AO and NAO finally head back to negative and the PNA positive. Let’s see if this actually happens but at least it is there on the model late in the run.
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Today’s update to the above: Due to near unanimous much warmer models since 24 hours ago, Radiant has raised KATL Feb from what was already the 9th warmest Feb at 52.6 to now 53.7, which is 7th warmest back to 1879. This raises the DJF projection from 49.0 to 49.4, which is only barely cooler than 2015-6’s warmest El Niño of about 48 on record (49.5)! Furthermore, Radiant states that due to a significant cold bias of both the GEFS and EPS, the higher risk is that KATL will end up warmer than rather than cooler than 49.4. Not what I want to hear but this is the reality, folks.
 
The latest GEFS pretty much sums up the primary theme of the winter. The rain train continues. There is a legit chance for CHA to end up with the wettest Nov-Feb ever recorded, going back 140 years. All we need is 2.60" til end of the month to crack the top 5, and 9.41" to break the record. GEFS mean around 8 with a few individual members pushing 12...well ok then, bring it on I guess.

GEFSSE_prec_meanprecacc_384.png


GEFSSE_prec_paccens_384.png
 
This El Nino is not an El Nino at all as far as the SE is concerned. Oh the numbers indicate a weak Modoki El Nino, but the results to not equate with the predominate results from the history books. The actual verification would indicate a much more La Nina look than El Nino look and reminds me of the 1951-52 winter with a weak one which acted very similar to this years weather. It is just unlucky that all the signs pointed to an exciting winter here but instead we get a dud. Me and everyone else (including the professionals in this field) focused on the (anticipated) fastball coming at us when the weather was throwing a curve, swing and a miss
 
GaWx said:
Today’s update to the above: Due to near unanimous much warmer models since 24 hours ago, Radiant has raised KATL Feb from what was already the 9th warmest Feb at 52.6 to now 53.7, which is 7th warmest back to 1879. This raises the DJF projection from 49.0 to 49.4, which is only barely cooler than 2015-6’s warmest El Niño of about 48 on record (49.5)! Furthermore, Radiant states that due to a significant cold bias of both the GEFS and EPS, the higher risk is that KATL will end up warmer than rather than cooler than 49.4. Not what I want to hear but this is the reality, folks.
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Is the MJO really to blame for this year’s Niño torch? I mean what’s the driver here? I find it hard to believe we haven’t had good Niño winters with the MJO hanging out in the warm phases all winter. I’m starting to believe Niño Niña don’t mean what they used to. Analogs have also been useless too as of late
 
I really believe the models just have bad data, and are basing patterns and such based on what they delivered in the past. I think that just doesn't work now the way it used to. I think because our climate has changed, it's become much more unpredictable to know what complex patterns will produce now. The analogs don't work anymore, either.
 
Brick Tamland said:
I really believe the models just have bad data, and are basing patterns and such based on what they delivered in the past. I think that just doesn't work now the way it used to. I think because our climate has changed, it's become much more unpredictable to know what complex patterns will produce now. The analogs don't work anymore, either.
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Warm analogs do!


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Brick Tamland said:
I really believe the models just have bad data, and are basing patterns and such based on what they delivered in the past. I think that just doesn't work now the way it used to. I think because our climate has changed, it's become much more unpredictable to know what complex patterns will produce now. The analogs don't work anymore, either.
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What do you mean about the models having bad data and are basing forecasts on past patterns? I think your point about analogs is somewhat valid. The background climate is warmer, which probably plays a role in creating pattern drivers that are different from past years with seemingly the same set of conditions to the current year. So, in making a winter forecast, it's possible that analog weighting has become more error-prone. But the models use physics and calculations that shouldn't change because the climate is different. So I'm not sure what to make of that point.

Edit: I reread this and I don't mean it to come across argumentative or with a bad tone. Just wanting to better understand what you're saying.
 
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ABA82C43-788C-40A8-98E3-79E0562C3864.gif
Doesn’t look crazy El Niñoey atm but scrolling back to early January it looked more Madookie’ish and we were still locked into a craptastic pattern. One promise this year’s El Niño did deliver on was the rain. Certainly no shortage of that
 
These are the remarkably strong cold biases in the 11-15 day period at ATL based on recent weeks' data:
8 F/day GEFS
6 F/day EPS

As mentioned earlier, these are near the highest in the US among major cities. But as also mentioned, the cold bias has not just been in the SE. It has been throughout the E 1/2 of the US. Examples for GEFS/EPS:

MEM 8/5
CIN 8/4
DCA 5/5
NYC 6/5
BOS 5/6
HOU/DFW 5/3
STL 6/1
CHI 3/0

Others in mainly the western half of the US are either neutral or even slightly warm biased:
MSP 2/-3
DEN -2/1
LA -3/-1
SEA 0/0

**Edit: credit to Radiant for these stats
 
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Anyone saying this wasn’t typical El Niño is wrong ... this just means we have a high precipitation winter. That’s it. It does not guarantee cold. We did have a classic very rainy and wet winter like El Niño’s bring to us.

Also Fv3 doesn’t confine accumulations to NC/VA it looks like that control run of the euro the other day .. looks like North Carolina/ South Carolina blender prospers in Fv3
 
Look at this BS. Actually where is it getting that? I don't even see frozen precip modeled in SE NC
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I thought Fv3 blinked last night but then it goes back to showing that... it’s a curious look for sure but a look we’ve seen before in the euro control and the Fv3 has shown in the past ... we wait and watch
 
Sleet City USA said:
Look at this BS. Actually where is it getting that? I don't even see frozen precip modeled in SE NC
gfs_wnatl_162_snodpth_chng.gif
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This is complete BS. Zero chance in this verifying, the 850’s are scorching for that area. Snow is probably limited to RDU north with a nice dusting to 4” as temperatures struggle and warm even at RDU. So that’s some nice 100% fake snow.
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Rain Cold said:
What do you mean about the models having bad data and are basing forecasts on past patterns? I think your point about analogs is somewhat valid. The background climate is warmer, which probably plays a role in creating pattern drivers that are different from past years with seemingly the same set of conditions to the current year. So, in making a winter forecast, it's possible that analog weighting has become more error-prone. But the models use physics and calculations that shouldn't change because the climate is different. So I'm not sure what to make of that point.

Edit: I reread this and I don't mean it to come across argumentative or with a bad tone. Just wanting to better understand what you're saying.
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This may be a bit off-topic but I have read studies pointing out the incomplete nature of modeled physics, ie their uncertainty and failure to account for various mechanisms that are poorly understood or not yet known. Models have come a long way but there are still plenty of calculations and physical mechanisms that models do not account for yet or struggle with due to various feedbacks and chaos (especially in the 5+ day period).
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Anyone saying this wasn’t typical El Niño is wrong ... this just means we have a high precipitation winter. That’s it. It does not guarantee cold. We did have a classic very rainy and wet winter like El Niño’s bring to us.

Also Fv3 doesn’t confine accumulations to NC/VA it looks like that control run of the euro the other day .. looks like North Carolina/ South Carolina blender prospers in Fv3
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It’s a ----ked up run, snow accumulation map is deceiving, this is the farthest south wintry precip makes it and it’s brief for those areas
89DB09DA-8ABD-41A9-B757-E94F48E9801F.png
 
ForsythSnow said:
It's going to. This is not going to happen. Take the Euro route and expect an overbearing SER and no wintry risk at all.
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Well to be fair the Euro did have a wintry run for parts of NC 12z yesterday but lost it overnight. The Fv3 is likely biased way too cold here though, when the GFS and CMC are both showing rain and the Euro is too other than one run it's a given that it's off base unless something significant were to change (like less SER which is not likely).
 
snowlover91 said:
Well to be fair the Euro did have a wintry run for parts of NC 12z yesterday but lost it overnight. The Fv3 is likely biased way too cold here though, when the GFS and CMC are both showing rain and the Euro is too other than one run it's a given that it's off base unless something significant were to change (like less SER which is not likely).
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It's usually when we get to 6 days out that the FV3 stops showing the winter storm threat.
 
Jon said:
This is complete BS. Zero chance in this verifying, the 850’s are scorching for that area. Snow is probably limited to RDU north with a nice dusting to 4” as temperatures struggle and warm even at RDU. So that’s some nice 100% fake snow.
5ae0551edeab792abe6f714731e0069b.jpg



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Here's the real snow map.
snku_acc.us_ma.png
 
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