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Pattern Fabulous February

I would like to note, after reading the WPC discussion from this morning and looking over the new 12z GFS so far, the 00z Euro and current 12z GFS/Canadian are world apart once again.

WPC had said this morning, they did not prefer the 00z Euro because its so much different bringing in colder air/more progressive. I'm torn between which to believe. So in the medium-long term we have a slight model war with overall sensible weather with the GFS/CMC vs Euro. (at least on the operational runs)

The Euro would change our pattern to something that could be more conductive for Winter weather chances while the others say keep the shorts out.
 
Shawn said:
I would like to note, after reading the WPC discussion from this morning and looking over the new 12z GFS so far, the 00z Euro and current 12z GFS/Canadian are world apart once again.

WPC had said this morning, they did not prefer the 00z Euro because its so much different bringing in colder air/more progressive. I'm torn between which to believe. So in the medium-long term we have a slight model war with overall sensible weather with the GFS/CMC vs Euro. (at least on the operational runs)

The Euro would change our pattern to something that could be more conductive for Winter weather chances while the others say keep the shorts out.
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I would add to this that the FV3 seems to be more in the Euro camp with a colder look and more potential threats like the CAD event on the 11-12th it's been showing and a few others. If the Euro/FV3 idea ends up being correct there would be a brief 2-3 week window of some possible snow chances if we can get the right timing of the precip and cold.
 
metwannabe said:
With the way things are trending I really like the Valentine's day time-frame as maybe our best shot in a while....
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Yeah there is some potential there if we can get the Euro or FV3 overall pattern. The CMC isn't good at 5H and I believe the old GFS has inferior 5H verification scores compared to the Euro/FV3 so with both of them showing a colder look I like the chances. Let's see what the Euro and EPS show today. If we can get a better pattern by February 10-15th we would still have 2-3 weeks for a snow threat which is plenty of time.
 
The main worry I have about the GFS/CMC vs Euro deal is that the GFS is usually more progressive vs. the slower Euro. That's what has me confused feeling on which is the more likely outcome because the roles are switched currently.

The Euro tends to overdo the SE ridge, and it's not showing that currently.. and much faster than the (usually too fast) GFS in the medium-long term.
 
tennessee storm said:
I am having a hard time remembering that one storm in 1914 for some reason.....
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tennessee storm said:
I am having a hard time remembering that one storm in 1914 for some reason.....
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Well you probably won't remember these either but in more recent times late March 1983 I believe, and I know for sure March 25th 1971, about 10 inches across the Upstate of SC.
 
At least there is potential on the Euro and FV3. Of course, they and the GFS and CMC are night and day from each other right now. The only thing that gives me pause about the FV3 showing something around the 14th is we're in the same time frame now that it was showing a storm here for this weekend, and look how that turned out. I keep hoping the FV3 gets another storm right like it did the December one, but lately it's been showing storms around 10 days out only to take them away a couple of days later.
 
tonysc said:
Well you probably won't remember these either but in more recent times late March 1983 I believe, and I know for sure March 25th 1971, about 10 inches across the Upstate of SC.
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the 1971... I don't recall... I was so young... but read about it a lot... now march 83... I was at parris island marine boot camp,,,, but remember that one well....
 
The MJO signal continues to improve across most model arrays. For some reason, the Euro Op hasn't loaded for today, so I'll use the Monthlies as a proxy. The GEFS, CFS, and EMON continue to move it along into Phase 8, and eventually beyond. I expect we will see the models' H5 depictions to respond. I also expect to see an increased frequency of winter storm threats, with potentially a couple of big dogs showing up. This probably starts just after mid-Feb and lasts into a portion of March.

GFS.jpg
CFSO_phase_small.gif
94B6CB5A-5D96-491C-9F59-9CA65CFD5AB6.gif.67fffa1a3b5d05da2c0d438da0c32898.gif

And the Euro at and near the end of its run continues to look better:

ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_11.png
 
Rain Cold said:
The MJO signal continues to improve across most model arrays. For some reason, the Euro Op hasn't loaded for today, so I'll use the Monthlies as a proxy. The GEFS, CFS, and EMON continue to move it along into Phase 8, and eventually beyond. I expect we will see the models' H5 depictions to respond. I also expect to see an increased frequency of winter storm threats, with potentially a couple of big dogs showing up. This probably starts just after mid-Feb and lasts into a portion of March.

View attachment 14996
View attachment 14997
View attachment 14998

And the Euro at and near the end of its run continues to look better:

View attachment 14999
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WAR would help us out in that situation, if you get a storm it would let it go poleward off the coast and get it to bomb, but what I’m saying is extremely unlikely
 
Not bad, split flow with a +PNA, weak -NAO which won’t likely happen, - AO, not far off from the pattern from last early December, this right here tells me a thread the needle type storm if you get one just based off H5 , this was around the end of the gefs AC272D3B-8A8E-4A4A-9E76-478E52D6BB82.jpeg
 
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Brick Tamland said:
At least there is potential on the Euro and FV3. Of course, they and the GFS and CMC are night and day from each other right now. The only thing that gives me pause about the FV3 showing something around the 14th is we're in the same time frame now that it was showing a storm here for this weekend, and look how that turned out. I keep hoping the FV3 gets another storm right like it did the December one, but lately it's been showing storms around 10 days out only to take them away a couple of days later.
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I think you have to look at the facts... EURO has always been an amazing model and I tend to think it knows what it’s doing inside 240 hours and the fact that the Fv3 which is the new gfs model and will be replacing it is showing the same thing. The old GFS which is CRAP and the CMC which has always been a ridiculous model to have in anyone camp .. it’s worthless.. time to start looking at the leaders
 
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