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Pattern Fabulous February

Thing is that it really was not a monster type of cut, it’s just the ridge and lots of moisture from it a little to amped, there will be ridge adjustments but this is that type of storm you can’t let go
 
Here's your FV clown map
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GaWx said:
As has been the case on the last few runs, the late portion of the 12Z GFS has the return of a strong +PNA and finally actual solid cold throughout the SE.
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It keeps the southerns stream quite active also. Heights over and near Greenland are above normal, which is good, but we don't have a big block there yet. We don't necessarily need it, but with the active southern stream, a big block up there with ridging along the west coast, could make for a memorable 1-2 week period.
 
Rain Cold said:
It keeps the southerns stream quite active also. Heights over and near Greenland are above normal, which is good, but we don't have a big block there yet. We don't necessarily need it, but with the active southern stream, a big block up there with ridging along the west coast, could make for a memorable 1-2 week period.
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The active southern stream and decent low placement/tracks hasn't been the problem this winter that's for sure, just a little blocking and/or some Pacific help and it really would be borderline epic...... but could as easily be a dud.
 
Rain Cold said:
It keeps the southerns stream quite active also. Heights over and near Greenland are above normal, which is good, but we don't have a big block there yet. We don't necessarily need it, but with the active southern stream, a big block up there with ridging along the west coast, could make for a memorable 1-2 week period.
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I have a feeling that the 2 week period near 2/25-3/10, which is sometimes a peak period for El Nino, is going to make or break the winter wintry precipwise for those who didn't get that Dec big dog. Let's see if the EPS goes in that direction as it has still been holding onto the SER to some extent and not letting the SE finally get cold.
 
ATLwxfan said:
As we watch modeling tempting us from afar and promising a colder look (on the GFS and GEFS anyway) we see that the near term is trending warmer and warmer. I think we are continuing to see a cold bias that just continues to not pan out. Hard to know when that will change. Especially when the MJO doesn’t even behave as we suspect it should.


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Maybe for ur area? I don’t see anything trending Warmer at all actuall I think it’s trending colder. That mid Atlantic system in around 90-100 hours just randomly popped up yesterday ... and now we have a legotamite storm threat models are picking up on after that... I’m still looking for a warm trend tho .. not seeing it
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Maybe for ur area? I don’t see anything trending Warmer at all actuall I think it’s trending colder. That mid Atlantic system in around 90-100 hours just randomly popped up yesterday ... and now we have a legotamite storm threat models are picking up on after that... I’m still looking for a warm trend tho .. not seeing it
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I hope it does trend colder but certainly for many parts of the south there is some proverbial can kicking as evidenced by the last three 12z GFS runs for this coming Saturday.
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Nick_boynton_ said:
I genuinely don’t know why people use the CMC to back anything up... poop model =waste of time we didn’t even consider it when the Gfs And Euro were good models
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Well seeing how the CMC has a cold bias, if it’s showing rain it’s most likely going to rain warmer than is depicted
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Just a sign of spring, storms getting ruined do to CAD, yay a 50 degree rain
View attachment 15573
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Yep wedge is always tough to dislodge.... see note from NWS

Thus, it will take awhile for the warm front over SC to overtake this air mass, and
have shaved a couple of degrees off highs, around 50 NW to lower 70s
SE. Will monitor trends closely, though, because even these temps
could be too warm.

Considering I'm still stuck at 41 right now, yeah those temps still too warm..... wedge always over performs when wintry precip not in the equation.
 
metwannabe said:
Yep wedge is always tough to dislodge.... see note from NWS

Thus, it will take awhile for the warm front over SC to overtake this air mass, and
have shaved a couple of degrees off highs, around 50 NW to lower 70s
SE. Will monitor trends closely, though, because even these temps
could be too warm.

Considering I'm still stuck at 41 right now, yeah those temps still too warm..... wedge always over performs when wintry precip not in the equation.
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It’s simply amazing, as you said, the staying power of the cold wedge, when it’s a difference of 48/60, but it’s impossible to get to 30,31 this year it seems!
 
Wow, now we have the Euro showing a winter storm threat for next week in NC. This might be legit.
 
Contrary to popular belief, I don't think the MJO behavior lately really is unusual, especially once you understand why it's happening.

The MJO took longer than usual to cross the west-central Pacific the past few weeks because the base state was already far enough removed from neutral ENSO and making a clear advancement towards El Nino that the excess convective heating brought about by what was an already displaced warm pool offset adiabatic cooling in the ascending part of the MJO wave, which slowed down the MJO. I.e. if we weren't making a move towards an El Nino this upcoming year, the MJO already would be in the "cold" phases of the W Hem & Indian Ocean.

DzObKFeUcAATfYo.jpg
 
metwannabe said:
Yep wedge is always tough to dislodge.... see note from NWS

Thus, it will take awhile for the warm front over SC to overtake this air mass, and
have shaved a couple of degrees off highs, around 50 NW to lower 70s
SE. Will monitor trends closely, though, because even these temps
could be too warm.

Considering I'm still stuck at 41 right now, yeah those temps still too warm..... wedge always over performs when wintry precip not in the equation.
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I am at 46 and was forecasted to get to 60 today. Maybe this will happen again for us next week.
 
Webberweather53 said:
My interest level in this event on a scale from a 0 to 10 is low, around a 2 & will remain pretty low until we can actually get this system inside about day 5-6, every day we can inch closer to verification it'll come up about a point or so as long as most models still have the storm.
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Slowly but surely something legitimate is potentially materializing, I'd give this about a 3 atm given how guidance has evolved of late.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Slowly but surely something legitimate is potentially materializing, I'd give this about a 3 atm given how guidance has evolved of late.
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Difference is we actually have the Euro starting to show a threat now. GFS and FV3 are not alone anymore like they have bee. with the storms they showed the last three weeks in the 7 to 10 day range.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Difference is we actually have the Euro starting to show a threat now. GFS and FV3 are not alone anymore like they have bee. with the storms they showed the last three weeks in the 7 to 10 day range.
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It’s just one Euro run though, we need to see it consistently showing this for several runs before it has any weight as a threat imo. Still nice to see all 3 globals with something of interest.
 
snowlover91 said:
It’s just one Euro run though, we need to see it consistently showing this for several runs before it has any weight as a threat imo. Still nice to see all 3 globals with something of interest.
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Yeah, but you have to start somewhere. Maybe this is just the first warning shot. It has been a long time since all three were showing something at the same time.
 
snowlover91 said:
It’s just one Euro run though, we need to see it consistently showing this for several runs before it has any weight as a threat imo. Still nice to see all 3 globals with something of interest.
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This definitely has considerably more credence as a legitimate threat than the phantom storm everyone was gushing over last week on the Fv3.
 
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