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Pattern Fabulous February

Can’t help but think the recoil from all this warmth will be a frigid end to the month.

FV3 at least beats back the SER mid month.


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Webberweather53 said:
I wouldn't (& I personally don't) pay much attention or give much credence to NWP model forecasts of ENSO at this time of the year because they are typically atrocious until they're being initialized w/ SSTAs in the east-central Pacific near the equinox, hence the spring "predictability barrier". We're clearly moving in a direction that favors stronger +ENSO later this year & the base state as is was already on the cusp of being an El Nino.

I also don't like how the IRI initializes the models with monthly SSTAs then plots a tri-monthly forecast, the latter is almost always going to be lower due to averaging smoothing out extreme values, and I don't agree that the SSTAs for a monthly mean reached +1.0C earlier this winter, most datasets are much lower which is giving the illusion of "weakening" into the spring/summer when in reality it's not.
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Webber, got a question. If the euro mjo depiction is correct with mjo moving forward, could we still have some opportunities at cold and maybe winter weather in some parts of the south? Reason i ask is because its the first time this winter the mjo may get to colder stormier phases.
 
The evolution of H5 near and over NA isn't as horrendous as some of the previous runs. Talking about the GFS and FV-3. I haven't looked at the ensembles. I have seen some previous runs with a horrific SE ridge complex, but the new runs aren't quite that bad and in fact, they would allow for the possibility of some wintry weather for the upper southeast.
 
Rain Cold said:
The evolution of H5 near and over NA isn't as horrendous as some of the previous runs. Talking about the GFS and FV-3. I haven't looked at the ensembles. I have seen some previous runs with a horrific SE ridge complex, but the new runs aren't quite that bad and in fact, they would allow for the possibility of some wintry weather for the upper southeast.
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Today’s Euro I also thought was an improvement, later in the run the PNA pops positive and all the cold air in Canada is on the move further south. With all guidance now at least trending towards a better MJO phase, would expect to see colder runs. Plus, I cannot believe this February could possibly end up as warm as last year was.
 
Golf7575 said:
Webber, got a question. If the euro mjo depiction is correct with mjo moving forward, could we still have some opportunities at cold and maybe winter weather in some parts of the south? Reason i ask is because its the first time this winter the mjo may get to colder stormier phases.
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Imo, given what the tropical forcing looks like going forward, where we stand in the current AAM cycle (+AAM in the extratropics coupled with building +AAM in the tropics that'll eventually surge poleward into the subtropics (remember that +AAM = westerly momentum or anomalous westerly flow near the high-latitude surf zone = bad for high-latitude blocking) & the polar vortex intensifying significantly following the more recent SSWE, what will have to happen to break down this southeastern US ridge is we'll need a big vortex to get going over the Aleutian islands later in February and squash the Aleutian high that's been continuously rebuilding there time & time again. The pattern it would leave us with is far from ideal and would be limited on cold air relative to climo w/ a roaring NP jet plus it's not exactly favorable for overrunning events so the window we could score a storm would be thru the first week of March when our climatological window can legitimately support snow/ice, unless of course a massive block goes up over Greenland or Alaska. However, seeing as how we seem apt to withhold producing a -NAO in the lower-middle troposphere (ironically one did occur just in the upper troposphere lol) and/or if one is actually coming we won't be able to detect it until the medium range this might be our only option left to salvage something in the dying minutes of the winter.

In summary, we need a huge vortex to crank over the Aleutians to suppress the western US trough and give us any glimmer of hope to get a storm but said pattern still would be pretty meh. I'm just not confident that we're going to see much of a -NAO that we need to reinforce a trough over Atlantic/SE Canada and without the trough over the Kamchatka Peninsula digging much at all, it’s been anything but easy and will continue to be difficult to see the kind of high amplitude ridge we’d need to push the SER way out into the Atlantic and establish a healthy trough over the northern plains and lakes. The pattern going forward even with some favorable changes that are well within our grasp still looks like hot garbage.
 
Stormdoc said:
Today’s Euro I also thought was an improvement, later in the run the PNA pops positive and all the cold air in Canada is on the move further south. With all guidance now at least trending towards a better MJO phase, would expect to see colder runs. Plus, I cannot believe this February could possibly end up as warm as last year was.
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100% agree. That is what I have been counting on as well. Just came in here to post the 240 Euro map. Hopefully, the EPS will improve. This isn't nearly as bad as the direction we were staring down the other day. We can work with something like this:

ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_11 (1).png
 
Rain Cold said:
100% agree. That is what I have been counting on as well. Just came in here to post the 240 Euro map. Hopefully, the EPS will improve. This isn't nearly as bad as the direction we were staring down the other day. We can work with something like this:

View attachment 14863
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This pattern favors cold chasing moisture until a blocking high goes up over Alaska or Greenland. Both would be nice
 
Webberweather53 said:
This pattern favors cold chasing moisture until a blocking high goes up over Alaska or Greenland. Both would be nice
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Yep, that is likely. I'd rather have that than a strong and anchored SE ridge, though. Even if you have a setup that predominately favors cold chasing moisture, as long as you have cold in the pattern nearby, timing something out, even a little something, is at least within the realm of possibility.
 
Ugh...
For the umpteenth day in a row the EPS continues to get worse as verification approaches beyond the medium range. Like clockwork the day 8-9 EPS of today looks much worse than the day 10 of yesterday
ecmwf-ens_z500a_npac_fh216_trend (6).gif
 
NWS GSP going for a high of 78F on Thursday, that's 4 degrees above the daily record of 74 and within 4 of the all-time monthly record that was set when our climo is much warmer at the end of the month.
Isn't it funny how when the pattern turns mild we're extremely quick to shell out record highs, it's like the globe is warming or something.
What a revelation...
 
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