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Pattern Fabulous February

Only if this -NAO could happen, (presses down on the SER) but anyways get rid of that weak SER and start getting the +PNA to form, also keep the lower heights in the 50/50 area and you can maybe score something, this actually looks good for a icy setup, unfortunately this is so far out but Sum slight 03D0C413-11D5-418B-994D-A7AC51FA0B44.jpeg
 
GaWx said:
Oops I may have spoken too soon about the 0Z Euro. Where did that +PNA suddenly come from
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Lol euro says winter is back in business, wtf lmao, and as you said +PNA is back and there’s not even a SER, just more of a WAR A243AA08-B3A1-4672-8AE4-8BA45404947C.jpeg
 
Fv3 might be bad at H5, but it agrees with euro on a +PNA at hour 240, altho it quickly falls apart on the fv 25DBF046-0B6D-4135-A99F-93C182792060.png
 
This is going exactly the way I've been saying we don't want it to go for the past few days.

Watch as the trough over the Kamchatka Peninsula lifts into NE Siberia as each successive run goes by, the ridge over the NE Pacific flattens and the trough downstream over the Rockies digs = more expansive/stronger SER. We need a North Atlantic block to save us and drop a trough over Atlantic/SE Canada

ecmwf-ens_z500a_npac_fh192_trend (2).gif
 
Atleast the op Euro and GFSv3 op looked good and cold after the 14th ish, it’s all we’ve got
 
GaWx said:
The EPS hopefully and likely has the upper hand now. (The CMC and JMA totally suck imho as far as MJO prediction abilities in general, but that’s beside the point and they have tended to be somewhat closer to the EPS than the GEFS from my recall.) Despite the GEFS moving in the direction of the EPS, GEFS and EPS are still far different with the GEFS going backward into moderate amplitude phase 6 through 2/9 while the EPS is then into the COD. The GEFS then goes into high amplitude 7 and 8 while the EPS is in low amp 7, 8, and 1 (by the way GEFS has been horrible recently while EPS has been much steadier in comparison):




View attachment 14777View attachment 14778
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The GEFS shows a larger "retrograding" MJO because the coupling between the atmosphere and underlying ocean is poor in the model, creating overzealous deep convection that rarely, if ever verifies. An equatorial Rossby Wave radiates westward from the convection it's just that in the GFS because there's more superfluous convection, the equatorial Rossby Wave is stronger which = MJO retrogrades more

The MJO can be thought of in first principles as a phenomena that manifests from the collective wave interference from other, smaller, higher frequency equatorial waves that comprise it like the aforementioned equatorial rossby, Inertio-gravity, mixed rossby gravity, and arguably most importantly the (atmospheric) equatorial Kelvin wave. Having a basic understanding of the dynamics of these waves, how they relate to the MJO, and what contribution the mid-latitudes has in triggering and dampening MJO waves actually goes a long way to grappling with situations like this where the MJO isn't continually propagating east.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The GEFS shows a larger "retrograding" MJO because the coupling between the atmosphere and underlying ocean is poor in the model, creating overzealous deep convection that rarely, if ever verifies. An equatorial Rossby Wave radiates westward from the convection it's just that in the GFS because there's more superfluous convection, the equatorial Rossby Wave is stronger which = MJO retrogrades more

The MJO can be thought of in first principles as a phenomena that manifests from the collective wave interference from other, smaller, higher frequency equatorial waves that comprise it like the aforementioned equatorial rossby, Inertio-gravity, mixed rossby gravity, and arguably most importantly the (atmospheric) equatorial Kelvin wave. Having a basic understanding of the dynamics of these waves, how they relate to the MJO, and what contribution the mid-latitudes has in triggering and dampening MJO waves actually goes a long way to grappling with situations like this where the MJO isn't continually propagating east.
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You could take this another step further by asking why the Rossby Waves/convection have really begun to amplify in the central Pacific.

Note how the Vp200 anomalies exhibit standing wave behavior & the low frequency VP200 finally projects onto the central Pacific. El Nino has arrived.

Dyes5YEXcAAyCUo.jpg
DyetTebX0AA8vQR.jpg
 
Webberweather53 said:
You could take this another step further by asking why the Rossby Waves/convection have really begun to amplify in the central Pacific.

Note how the Vp200 anomalies exhibit standing wave behavior & the low frequency VP200 finally projects onto the central Pacific. El Nino has arrived.

View attachment 14832
View attachment 14833
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In laymans terms, this means too little too late for tha majority of the SE in regards to Winter weather (except a freak mid-march event). Correct? This could let the Southern Jet come active in time for severe season, esepcially in the favorable zones.. maybe less for the Carolinas with potential CAD towards April?
 
I just took a look at the long range on the models, and they are a massive dumpster fire for anyone hoping for winter weather.

On the plus side, there looks to be a couple decent shots at severe weather. And I wouldn't mind 70s and 80s two years in a row for my birthday (22nd). :D
 
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Shawn said:
In laymans terms, this means too little too late for tha majority of the SE in regards to Winter weather (except a freak mid-march event). Correct? This could let the Southern Jet come active in time for severe season, esepcially in the favorable zones.. maybe less for the Carolinas with potential CAD towards April?
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It's obviously too little too late for most in terms of the "expected" impacts from ENSO before winter is over and the subtropical jet has been somewhat active as is this winter, westerly momentum is currently building in the tropics both because El Nino is legitimately coming on, and a previous bout of angular momentum earlier in the winter that propagated poleward is being refracted into the tropics depositing its +AAM there. This tropical +AAM (+AAM can be thought of as anomalous westerly flow in the atmosphere & vis versa w/ -AAM) will eventually propagate poleward thanks to transient mid-latitude eddies, becoming envisaged or realized as a stronger subtropical jet, when this occurs remains unbeknownst to me but it probably will happen within the next 3-5 weeks or so. Southern US (especially the lower MS Valley) actually experiences considerably more severe weather w/o an active southern jet, the only areas that really benefit are the southern high plains (west TX) & Florida, there's not much of a signal in either direction over the Carolinas.

You can clearly see the +AAM in the tropics on this diagram (in yellow & orange). Look how the previous bout of poleward propagating AAM all the way back in November reached the mid-latitudes and was refracted back towards the equator, it's only now reaching the tropics. Isn't it amazing how something that happened 3 months ago is still significantly affecting our pattern?
glaam.sig1-21.90day (2).gif
 
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Webberweather53 said:
The GEFS shows a larger "retrograding" MJO because the coupling between the atmosphere and underlying ocean is poor in the model, creating overzealous deep convection that rarely, if ever verifies. An equatorial Rossby Wave radiates westward from the convection it's just that in the GFS because there's more superfluous convection, the equatorial Rossby Wave is stronger which = MJO retrogrades more

The MJO can be thought of in first principles as a phenomena that manifests from the collective wave interference from other, smaller, higher frequency equatorial waves that comprise it like the aforementioned equatorial rossby, Inertio-gravity, mixed rossby gravity, and arguably most importantly the (atmospheric) equatorial Kelvin wave. Having a basic understanding of the dynamics of these waves, how they relate to the MJO, and what contribution the mid-latitudes has in triggering and dampening MJO waves actually goes a long way to grappling with situations like this where the MJO isn't continually propagating east.
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Wave interference explains why ENSO for example is a "stationary" phenomena. When a downwelling Kelvin Wave triggered by westerly wind bursts in the central Pacific reaches the eastern boundary region (i.e. South America), it is reflected as a westward propagating equatorial Rossby Wave. The opposite is also true when a Rossby Wave reaches Indonesia, it's reflected as a Kelvin Wave! Let's say another westerly wind burst occurs triggering yet another Kelvin Wave while the equatorial Rossby waves continue propagating westward. The interference between this new Kelvin Wave and the equatorial Rossby Wave that came about due to the first Kelvin Wave reflecting off of South America actually creates the stationary/standing wave look to the sea surface temperature anomalies in the east-central equatorial Pacific.
 
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