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Misc 2019 Banter & Friendly Conservation

Rain Cold said:
You’re probably going to be right. But I have seen some unusual bird activity of late. Blackbirds have been flying hither and yon, diving furiously from the treetops down to the ground, consuming feed in great quantities. Seagulls circling parking lots. And robins. These robins are poking around very strangely. Could be more snow coming than we think?
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I meant to post this the other day but I saw a flock of geese flying north last Wednesday. The nail was already in the coffin but that put the last quarter turn in the lug wrench for me
 
Brent said:
My NWS forecast what can go wrong:rolleyes:

Sunday Night
Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers and snow. Little or no snow accumulation. Cold with lows in the mid 30s.
Washingtons Birthday
Cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers and snow. Little or no snow accumulation. Highs in the lower 40s.
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Apparently no accumulation or very little. ? lol
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I think the big question is have we reached the southern extent of our possible outcomes? Do we only tick north from here with a SER that only blossoms as we near verification?

im trying to sharpen my severe skills this season. Need your help. Don’t really know which maps are most useful. I need you to school me up. I’m only good at tracking and identifying 33 degree rain events in the winter time ☹️
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Well if we get a SER dominated pattern this spring and summer, we bake in scorching heat with the MCS train to our north with Chicago getting constant hailstorms, it’s a lose lose situation ?
 
Omg I see the future ? cold March, cold april then last week of April we get spring, baking may, baking June missing all the summertime storms, baking July, baking August, baking September, baking October than the last week we get fall, freezing november, many cold rainy miller As and hype, cold December then the last week torches and were flooded with pacific air for the rest of next winter, now where’s my paycheck
 
I am not ready to give up the 18z gfs. I have fantasized that solution for the past 5 hours, and now the time is near for me to let it go.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
im trying to sharpen my severe skills this season. Need your help. Don’t really know which maps are most useful. I need you to school me up. I’m only good at tracking and identifying 33 degree rain events in the winter time ☹️
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All the worst storms are in Greer/Taylors! So until you move, you’re screwed year round!
 
My long term for fun prediction:

Upcoming system: Finally gives Brent some love, even though south of him gets more snow. For east of there, it ends up trending into a big storm for Northern/NW Mississippi/western TN and olhausen's camp if anything. Nothing but flurries to a dusting eastward.
March: Finally transforms into a trough in the East pattern, in just the nick of time to give us plenty of CAD type days with cloudiness and rain, then a freeze or two to mess up some crops. Maybe a snowstorm in the Apps and a little snow otherwise along I-40 and north, like 1-2" inches.
April: Cool but not cold, less of those CAD type days. Turning warmer the last week of the month.
May: Warmer than average.
June: Hot
July: Hot
August: Hot
September: Hot, with occasional bouts of relief.
October: Warm to hot, and it takes another major hurricane sadly to blow summer away, although it won't be as baking as 2018 was.
November: About average.
December: Slightly warmer than average, but we get another major snowstorm again, making people bat eyes and go "Really?" "So I guess we are going to shift our major storms to December instead of other months?". This time, that major snowstorm will be in the I-20 corridor in further than just Atlanta west, with areas east of 85 in Georgia/South Carolina finally cashing in.
Rest of winter, January is slightly below average, with one week of incredible cold, but we have another early spring in February.
 
Never forget
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I love how the 100hr system is the only one that hasn’t cut in the last 60 days but instead it takes a track right through the heart of SC. Fitting
 
Ridge is already quite a bit stronger than 18z and 12z. L

(love clown maps even if I'm not involved, I was smiling lmao at it)

If there's anything I giggle like a freaking maniac at though, it's old stuff from storm2k from years like 2003-2004. Quotes like these are so good: "ffc has been out to lunch in another country".
 
NoSnowATL said:
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Seattle 1- Earth -0


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Can't even really be mad about this, that's pretty freakin' cool. I like to think of Seattle as the Atlanta of the west coast when it comes to snow so I can live vicariously through them. lol I can only imagine the snow weenies in Boston that are losing their s---- that they are getting less snow than areas that rarely get big snows.
 
The FV3 is essentially the new DGEX as far as I care outside of the "a wrong clock is right twice a day scenario". Needs a ton of work before it goes public.
 
Tarheel1 said:
15” lolly over Tigerville, book it!View attachment 15536
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The big takeaway tonight is the GFS almost gets us below freezing (33) once the entire run. Fab Feb looking formidable! BOOM!! *AC/DC Back In Black plays in background*

Jk it’s gets us to 31 at hr372
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I still don't get the point in a forecast past 192 with the GFS, much less past 240. Like what is the point of wasting the resources?! We can't even get the thing to be in the ballpark sometimes until 24 hours or less out!
 
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