tennessee storm
Member
Sorry change topic some... Eric. What’s your early thoughts on the severe weather season up coming... that’s what I’m slowly starting to focus on moving forward... though I take a late winter storm...
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Pattern Fabulous February
- Thread starter PEA_RIDGE
- Start date
Geez storm off of NC really looked like a TS
NCSNOW
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0z GDPS & 6z FV3 both have Ice in western NC Sunday night into Monday. 6z GFS says to warm in NC CAD. Euro has wedge but I cant see if there would be any precip or not. Outside of that continue to enjoy spring rest of the week lol. Another 8-10 days of this weekend weather the Fescue will be awake along with all the chickweed and wild onions etc. Then we can add another month of mowing to the 2019 season!
Storm5
Member
Jessy89
Member
The way I see it. It’s not out of the question we thread needle in February and someone sees ice perhaps a little snow. However I accepted this winter as a fail. And El Niño certainly could be the driver behind a active severe weather season.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This is the classic look in the Eq Pacific we’ve seen in the satellite era when a legitimate El Niño is about to begin where most El Niños started in the central Pacific before migrating east as they intensified. The anomalously warm surface water near the international dateline is tightly coupled to and reflective of the downwelling oceanic Kelvin Wave that’s going to intensify the next several weeks as it comes east.
FV3 back at it again
snowlover91
Member
It's going to be interesting to see how the Nino evolves and how the SST's respond to the Kelvin wave mentioned. I'm not convinced yet that it will strengthen over the coming months, most of the models are indicating it will remain steady or gradually weaken this spring/summer. Of course as we know the evolution of La Nina and El Nino can be pretty tough to predict; if we do degrade into a neutral state in time for hurricane season that would be bad news.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I wouldn't (& I personally don't) pay much attention or give much credence to NWP model forecasts of ENSO at this time of the year because they are typically atrocious until they're being initialized w/ SSTAs in the east-central Pacific near the equinox, hence the spring "predictability barrier". We're clearly moving in a direction that favors stronger +ENSO later this year & the base state as is was already on the cusp of being an El Nino.
I also don't like how the IRI initializes the models with monthly SSTAs then plots a tri-monthly forecast, the latter is almost always going to be lower due to averaging smoothing out extreme values, and I don't agree that the SSTAs for a monthly mean reached +1.0C earlier this winter, most datasets are much lower which is giving the illusion of "weakening" into the spring/summer when in reality it's not.
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From Radiant this morning: “The 11-15 Day period is considered a ’high risk’ time frame as the overall pattern being projected in models is not what you would normally expect to see in an El Niño-like atmosphere. Global atmospheric angular momentum is forecast in its positive phase (+GLAAM), and this alongside enhanced storminess over the very warm waters around the International Dateline correlate in an opposing manner as the current forecast. Below normal temperatures typically result from
this setup in the South and East, while warmer themes are in association for parts of the North/West.”
Radiant’s current forecast for the 11-15 is warm in the SE just as is the 1-10. Will that change? Stay tuned to the models.
this setup in the South and East, while warmer themes are in association for parts of the North/West.”
Radiant’s current forecast for the 11-15 is warm in the SE just as is the 1-10. Will that change? Stay tuned to the models.
snowlover91
Member
The next few months will be key but I'm not convinced yet we will see one form. The NWP model forecasts in February of 2018 did an excellent job of predicting the Nino that we saw develop. It's pretty tough though to know how things will shake out, just putting it out there that these models are showing a decline for 2019 to a neutral state just in time for hurricane season which would be very bad.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Last year was one of the few times the forecast was reasonable at this lead, I wouldn't use this one example to try & inherently broad brush the models as remotely reliable before the early spring because most times they rarely are. Also keep in mind however the models already initialized w/ conditions in January while the IRI is still stuck in December on the first plot you showed which isn't exactly apples-apples.
Fading to neutral ENSO alone wouldn't be very bad, it's only one piece of the puzzle for this hurricane season, to suggest it would mean we could be in trouble ignores the initial state in the Atlantic and interannual tendencies in EP TC activity both of which don't favor as many TCs in the Atlantic. Not to mention the large-scale steering pattern is still tbd
snowlover91
Member
I'm not trying to broad brush the models I'm just stating that they were pretty good last year for predicting the outcome we saw. Fading to neutral ENSO for hurricane season is one piece of the puzzle but it can definitely help with providing a more favorable environment for TC formation whereas a weak to moderate El Nino would likely produce more of a hostile environment.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Ok? The Euro also nailed Sandy, but that doesn't mean we should automatically flock to it in every subsequent situation w/o looking at the circumstances at hand or realizing how the models do in other cases because base state initialization, i.e. whether or not we're starting in an El Nino, Neutral ENSO, or La Nina significantly effects NWP forecast skill. You were also clearly broad brushing the implications of ENSO wrt the hurricane seasonal forecast in saying that fading to neutral "would be bad." because aside from the fact that it's pretty subjective it also ignores a bunch of other factors that define how one perceives a hurricane season to be "good" or "bad". Conditions may not be any less hostile without a weak or moderate El Niño
Stormlover
Member
there is always a warmup in mid winter...that's just one snapshot at one time
This seems like a step in the right direction to me. Still have to wait a bit, but I like the ultimate direction here:
Still a good bit of contrast between the GEFS and Euro. Hopefully, the Euro is right. The GFS seems wonky with its amplitude. But either way, both eventually move into Phase 8/1.
Still a good bit of contrast between the GEFS and Euro. Hopefully, the Euro is right. The GFS seems wonky with its amplitude. But either way, both eventually move into Phase 8/1.
snowlover91
Member
Not going to argue/debate this here. We have both made our thoughts on the subject clear and it's best to leave it at that.
Looking at the latest FV3 maps it looks like it's still picking up on some ice potential around hours 150-156. Probably not much to see here but if this system adjusts south any or the precip moves in a bit quicker we could see some ice in some of the CAD regions.
We just have to pray this is wrong
Kylo
Member
Not sure if we can top last Feb for torchness...but this is a good start.
Just need a wee bit of work to fix this
Ridge/trough combo continues to go west allowing for the SER to spread its wings, you better stop it ?
