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Pattern Fabulous February

To be fair, the 00Z Doc was pretty cold and snowy. So if it has a cutter now, it faked itself out as well for at lease a run. Individual EPS members were interesting too. Day 7 8 does seem to be when everything goes off the rails though.
 
This is not a map that supports a southeast winter storm. I don't have the in-between panels, but given the 168 evolution to this look, I can't imagine they're worth even looking at.

ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_9.png
 
12z eps ....meh
96542a6dddcaa4ef635698308904f68a.jpg
82121b20fbdd3b5129c03b7439c5e4c1.jpg



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The Euro is still showing the same MJO progression it has for days, which looks good. And the MJO has driven the pattern most of the winter. So, by D10, the MJO goes here:

MJO.jpg

And yet, you get this look:

ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_11.png

Something beyond the realm of understanding is working against getting a trough in the east. We should see blocking develop. We don't. The trough should be in the east. It isn't. This winter should be back loaded. It won't be. The pattern has looked like this for days. It should evolve differently. It hasn't. None of the guidance anywhere looks favorable or has trended more favorably in any meaningful way, in terms of getting into a cold and snowy pattern for the SE.

I'm not giving up on a brief period (maybe a week or so in early March) of a cold pattern, supportive of snow. I'm not giving up on a well-timed event, which could take place at short notice over the next few weeks. But I no longer see any rationale, given the data, that suggests it is wise to expect a stably favorable pattern to set in in time to offer a multitude of wintry chances for the Southeast.

I am, however, quite confident by the time we get into the second half of March, there will be blocks as far as the eye can see and cool anomalies centered directly over our region. Cool rains will continue to prevail, and we will watch helplessly as plants and trees fall victim to late season freezes, after yet another early start to the growing season. Spring will be late to arrive as wedge after wedge finally gives way to the blistering heat of another unbearable summer, the only glimmer of hope rising from the birth of an El Nino loading the back-end of another distant winter.

Autumn, tarrying until the last moment, finally arrives, filling the world with great anticipation of the coming winter wonderland, chronicled expertly throughout the seasonal forecasting community. An early season cold snap stirs the imagination of the snowstorms that lie ahead, growing further from the chorus of long range model charts foretelling bitter cold and deep snow. As the icy mirage gives way to concerns of seemingly endless mid-Winter warmth, the cries for better expectations are mounted to rescue the hope of the coming finale so grand as to be worthy in likeness to the great winters of yore.

But as another tepid winter passes like rain upon the meadow, few will lament it's departure. And the melting dreams of deep Winter snow will spill into a new season, watering the seeds of faith that next winter will be of a different kind. In the meantime, we will find joy in the flakes that fell, in the friends we have, and in our joined struggle to search out together that next cold and snowy winter that will one day surely appear on the bright horizon.

The hours have finally gone down in the night. And with that, I'm officially out.
 
Rain Cold said:
The Euro is still showing the same MJO progression it has for days, which looks good. And the MJO has driven the pattern most of the winter. So, by D10, the MJO goes here:

View attachment 15473

And yet, you get this look:

View attachment 15474

Something beyond the realm of understanding is working against getting a trough in the east. We should see blocking develop. We don't. The trough should be in the east. It isn't. This winter should be back loaded. It won't be. The pattern has looked like this for days. It should evolve differently. It hasn't. None of the guidance anywhere looks favorable or has trended more favorably in any meaningful way, in terms of getting into a cold and snowy pattern for the SE.
Click to expand...

In other words, what used to work for us to get snow doesn't work anymore for some reason.
 
Rain Cold said:
The Euro is still showing the same MJO progression it has for days, which looks good. And the MJO has driven the pattern most of the winter. So, by D10, the MJO goes here:

View attachment 15473

And yet, you get this look:

View attachment 15474

Something beyond the realm of understanding is working against getting a trough in the east. We should see blocking develop. We don't. The trough should be in the east. It isn't. This winter should be back loaded. It won't be. The pattern has looked like this for days. It should evolve differently. It hasn't. None of the guidance anywhere looks favorable or has trended more favorably in any meaningful way, in terms of getting into a cold and snowy pattern for the SE.

I'm not giving up on a brief period (maybe a week or so in early March) of a cold pattern, supportive of snow. I'm not giving up on a well-timed event, which could take place at short notice over the next few weeks. But I no longer see any rationale, given the data, that suggests it is wise to expect a stably favorable pattern to set in in time to offer a multitude of wintry chances for the Southeast.

I am, however, quite confident by the time we get into the second half of March, there will be blocks as far as the eye can see and cool anomalies centered directly over our region. Cool rains will continue to prevail, and we will watch helplessly as plants and trees fall victim to late season freezes, after yet another early start to the growing season. Spring will be late to arrive as wedge after wedge finally gives way to the blistering heat of another unbearable summer, the only glimmer of hope rising from the birth of an El Nino loading the back-end of another distant winter.

Autumn, tarrying until the last moment, finally arrives, filling the world with great anticipation of the coming winter wonderland, chronicled expertly throughout the seasonal forecasting community. An early season cold snap stirs the imagination of the snowstorms that lie ahead, growing further from the chorus of long range model charts foretelling bitter cold and deep snow. As the icy mirage gives way to concerns of seemingly endless mid-Winter warmth, the cries for better expectations are mounted to rescue the hope of the coming finale so grand as to be worthy in likeness to the great winters of yore.

But as another tepid winter passes like rain upon the meadow, few will lament it's departure. And the melting dreams of deep Winter snow will spill into a new season, watering the seeds of faith that next winter will be of a different kind. In the meantime, we will find joy in the flakes that fell, in the friends we have, and in our joined struggle to search out together that next cold and snowy winter that will one day surely appear on the bright horizon.

The hours have finally gone down in the night. And with that, I'm officially out.
Click to expand...

Thank you, Kevin O'Leary. Meanwhile, both the 12Z GEFS and EPS have a building impessive +PNA late in their runs. Are these to be believed this time? Or is this still another mirage? They look dam good but is this just more kayfabe?
 
Rain Cold said:
The Euro is still showing the same MJO progression it has for days, which looks good. And the MJO has driven the pattern most of the winter. So, by D10, the MJO goes here:

View attachment 15473

And yet, you get this look:

View attachment 15474

Something beyond the realm of understanding is working against getting a trough in the east. We should see blocking develop. We don't. The trough should be in the east. It isn't. This winter should be back loaded. It won't be. The pattern has looked like this for days. It should evolve differently. It hasn't. None of the guidance anywhere looks favorable or has trended more favorably in any meaningful way, in terms of getting into a cold and snowy pattern for the SE.

I'm not giving up on a brief period (maybe a week or so in early March) of a cold pattern, supportive of snow. I'm not giving up on a well-timed event, which could take place at short notice over the next few weeks. But I no longer see any rationale, given the data, that suggests it is wise to expect a stably favorable pattern to set in in time to offer a multitude of wintry chances for the Southeast.

I am, however, quite confident by the time we get into the second half of March, there will be blocks as far as the eye can see and cool anomalies centered directly over our region. Cool rains will continue to prevail, and we will watch helplessly as plants and trees fall victim to late season freezes, after yet another early start to the growing season. Spring will be late to arrive as wedge after wedge finally gives way to the blistering heat of another unbearable summer, the only glimmer of hope rising from the birth of an El Nino loading the back-end of another distant winter.

Autumn, tarrying until the last moment, finally arrives, filling the world with great anticipation of the coming winter wonderland, chronicled expertly throughout the seasonal forecasting community. An early season cold snap stirs the imagination of the snowstorms that lie ahead, growing further from the chorus of long range model charts foretelling bitter cold and deep snow. As the icy mirage gives way to concerns of seemingly endless mid-Winter warmth, the cries for better expectations are mounted to rescue the hope of the coming finale so grand as to be worthy in likeness to the great winters of yore.

But as another tepid winter passes like rain upon the meadow, few will lament it's departure. And the melting dreams of deep Winter snow will spill into a new season, watering the seeds of faith that next winter will be of a different kind. In the meantime, we will find joy in the flakes that fell, in the friends we have, and in our joined struggle to search out together that next cold and snowy winter that will one day surely appear on the bright horizon.

The hours have finally gone down in the night. And with that, I'm officially out.
Click to expand...

Phase 8 (W hem) MJO events only weakly favor troughiness in the E US at this time of the year at best, unlike earlier in winter (Dec-Jan) when they're far more significant. The seasonal cycle in the E Hem monsoon circulation, jet wavelengths, and the zonal extent of tropical convection all matter when assessing the connection between tropical forcing and the mid-latitude wave response. We also have wave interference from ENSO, wave trains propagating in/around & through the longitudinal window where westerly momentum is being dumped into the mid-latitude jet by convection and wave trains emanating from other wave sources aside from convection like the Rockies or Himalayas, in addition to the background climate state, all of the above's role is more subtle on the timescales we're worried about but they matter in cases like this because it dramatically alters the pattern response.
500h_anom.na.png

Screen Shot 2019-02-11 at 3.14.27 PM.png
 
Rain Cold said:
This is not a map that supports a southeast winter storm. I don't have the in-between panels, but given the 168 evolution to this look, I can't imagine they're worth even looking at.

View attachment 15471
Click to expand...
Its not that far off though on the front end for our area. This type of setup favors a brief period of wintry weather on at onset especially in the NW Piedmont then sitting in the wedge doldrums for infinity.

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SD said:
Its not that far off though on the front end for our area. This type of setup favors a brief period of wintry weather on at onset especially in the NW Piedmont then sitting in the wedge doldrums for infinity.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Yeah, I agree. Still plenty of time for things to move around a bit more favorably. You can see that in the variety of solutions printed out today.
 
GaWx said:
Thank you, Kevin O'Leary. Meanwhile, both the 12Z GEFS and EPS have a building impessive +PNA late in their runs. Are these to be believed this time? Or is this still another mirage? They look dam good but is this just more kayfabe?
Click to expand...
Hopefully, they will begin to trend in that direction. We've seen some good signals show and then go up in smoke. Maybe, the I'm Out call was just what the doctor ordered. If it works like the Weeklies contest and the daily stock market challenge, then buckle up!
 
Somehow Johnson City TN will squeeze out a solid event in the next 10 days. February has been good to those guys so far. Atmospheric memory is real
 
Only reason we haven’t been favorable is because MJO has been in the unfavorable phases ... once they get into 8,1,2 very soon things will flip quicker than u can say FLIP
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Only reason we haven’t been favorable is because MJO has been in the unfavorable phases ... once they get into 8,1,2 very soon things will flip quicker than u can say FLIP
Click to expand...
I think we needed 8,1,2 a month ago when the MJO was the main driver. I’ll still take my chances with those phases now but I’m afraid our ship has sailed. Too late to maximize our benefits from those cold phases
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I think we needed 8,1,2 a month ago when the MJO was the main driver. I’ll still take my chances with those phases now but I’m afraid our ship has sailed. Too late to maximize our benefits from those cold phases
Click to expand...
Heck of a lot better than being in the warm phases regardless
 
Rain Cold said:
Yeah, I agree. Still plenty of time for things to move around a bit more favorably. You can see that in the variety of solutions printed out today.
Click to expand...
What's disappointing is this is another setup this year that isn't that far off but probably won't produce. We start seeing some blocking getting started over the Davis Strait region over the next 5 days but the wheels fall off shortly afterward. Had we developed a true block in that region we would probably have a winter storm for parts of the SE even with a crappy pacific

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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I think we needed 8,1,2 a month ago when the MJO was the main driver. I’ll still take my chances with those phases now but I’m afraid our ship has sailed. Too late to maximize our benefits from those cold phases
Click to expand...
So if those cold phases are no good now, they will probably stay in the 8,1,2 phases!?
Shouldn’t some of the other phase be cold and snowy in Feb then!? I mean should we be wanting a 5, when sucked last month, it’s good now?? Or is our timing just that perfect??
 
GaWx said:
Thank you, Kevin O'Leary. Meanwhile, both the 12Z GEFS and EPS have a building impessive +PNA late in their runs. Are these to be believed this time? Or is this still another mirage? They look dam good but is this just more kayfabe?
Click to expand...

That works out with the time frame i was noting in my previous posts. I think it’s real, many globals and sub seasonals hinting at the same period. Just need to see it stick. I think we salvage the last week of Feb. if it produces, that’s another question....but the -PNA/-EPO couplet will be history late month, imo of course.


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Last edited:
Tarheel1 said:
So if those cold phases are no good now, they will probably stay in the 8,1,2 phases!?
Shouldn’t some of the other phase be cold and snowy in Feb then!? I mean should we be wanting a 5, when sucked last month, it’s good now?? Or is our timing just that perfect??
Click to expand...
Wish I knew more about it Mack. We’re entering spring where 8’s are 5’s and blocks only block hot air from leaving. Maybe the MJO is just less of a driving force as earth begins to tilt back into northern hemisphere summer position? Tropical forcing can only add so much heat to a latitude tilting back towards the equator? Maybe the warm phases in spring are like throwing a burning log into an already raging fire. Maybe cold phases in spring are like throwing a water balloon onto a raging fire
 
SD said:
What's disappointing is this is another setup this year that isn't that far off but probably won't produce. We start seeing some blocking getting started over the Davis Strait region over the next 5 days but the wheels fall off shortly afterward. Had we developed a true block in that region we would probably have a winter storm for parts of the SE even with a crappy pacific

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Click to expand...
Yep, that's true. I don't know whether or not the blocking showing up and then knocking back is a product of what the models are doing with the MJO. They pretty much all progress it for a bit, and then either stall/weaken it or back-track it, before resuming forward pace again. I kind of still don't think it happens like that. I think it might slow a bit and then go...kind of like what the Euro shows. But you're right. A block in place would have done wonders. Maybe we still have time to get one going before the entirety of the season is spent.
 
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