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Pattern Fabulous February

Kylo said:
One positive on the GEFS is the pac ridge weakens and allows trough to pull back far enough west and heights lower in SE. And of course NAO but we know that won’t happen

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That NAO is doing just what JB said it would do. Now, whether it really does it or not is another story.
 
Kylo said:
One positive on the GEFS is the pac ridge weakens and allows trough to pull back far enough west and heights lower in SE. And of course NAO but we know that won’t happen

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Can also maybe begin to see a sign of a +PNA at the end, but that’s so far out, maybe the last 10 days of feb won’t disappoint ?
 
Kylo said:
One positive on the GEFS is the pac ridge weakens and allows trough to pull back far enough west and heights lower in SE. And of course NAO but we know that won’t happen

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Interesting. So, on this GEFS run, the -EPO weakens while the +PNA starts to come back. This is just another example that illustrates that the correlation to SE cold is higher for a +PNA than it is for a -EPO. Of course, the best would be to have both.
 
Kylo said:
My guess is to little to late. We haven’t had a 4” snowstorm in March in 36 years. So yeah, we can see flakes into March but a nice winter storm just doesn’t happen in March anymore for us.
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Yep, as it gets further and further into March, ULL’s are more needed for snow since they carry there own cold pocket aloft, just like last year where I got a solid 1.5” of snow from a ULL
 
GaWx said:
Well, the 12Z GEPS looks even worse than its prior version in the 11-15 for the SE. Just plain UGLY!
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Given that its MJO forecasts are trash, and it’s pushing the pulse into phase 6, the H5 depiction is not surprising. Hopefully, it’s wrong.
 
Rain Cold said:
Given that its MJO forecasts are trash, and it’s pushing the pulse into phase 6, the H5 depiction is not surprising. Hopefully, it’s wrong.
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Really hope it’s wrong, SE ridge never goes away, just like what the gefs did the trough/ridge moved even further west allowing for a stronger SER, lol it has the -NAO aswell, but other than that ?? 9B8128E5-0E19-48D9-8149-35AC474CFA66.gif
 
It’s crazy that many people in here praise the euro (as I do .. and as you should) and the euro ends up being the only model ever on top and for once the model is being consistent and showing everyone the phase shift in MJO and the cold returning and south east ridge not dominating but y’all see some long range model forecasts on the GEPS(???) and Gfs And gefs EVEN THOUGH we know for a fact that those models can show u something then for 180 two days later ... let’s stop being a bunch of pansies and start celebrating those darn north east weenies who got nothing and let’s be happy the king model is the one we’re banking on and not the stupid GEFS GEPS and Gfs ugly twins (although Fv3 is better)
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
It’s crazy that many people in here praise the euro (as I do .. and as you should) and the euro ends up being the only model ever on top and for once the model is being consistent and showing everyone the phase shift in MJO and the cold returning and south east ridge not dominating but y’all see some long range model forecasts on the GEPS(???) and Gfs And gefs EVEN THOUGH we know for a fact that those models can show u something then for 180 two days later ... let’s stop being a bunch of pansies and start celebrating those darn north east weenies who got nothing and let’s be happy the king model is the one we’re banking on and not the stupid GEFS GEPS and Gfs ugly twins (although Fv3 is better)
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Lol this is what the euro showed, I posted on banter yesterday, sure, it’s a really good weather model, but I should have 3 inches of snow on the ground rn.... it’s not perfect either and the fact the eps took a step towards the gefs last night is even worse, maybe it will improve today but we’ll see FF0E2719-478D-4211-82A7-8BFC4E973E21.jpeg
 
The Euro at hour 240 fwiw has the polar opposite of what the SE likes to see for cold chances: an Aleutian high rather than a low. This is not fun at all. Edit: on a second look, that's not so much an Aleutian high but it looks ugly to me: -EPO with -PNA. Won't work for SE cold.
 
GaWx said:
The Euro at hour 240 fwiw has the polar opposite of what the SE likes to see for cold chances: an Aleutian high rather than a low. This is not fun at all. Edit: on a second look, that's not so much an Aleutian high but it looks ugly to me.
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Larry,
For both of us (and perhaps many others) ... time for a walk ... o_O
 
pcbjr said:
Larry,
For both of us (and perhaps many others) ... time for a walk ... o_O
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I would have done multiple likes for that if I could. Maybe so (I had an enjoyable one yesterday evening), but I don't just like to report on only good news in the spirit of objectivity. Admittedly, though, I tend to get quiet and sometimes disappear from posting for a period when it is looking mild in the SE US. But I'm not at the moment during this crucial period from a forecasting point of view.
 
Kylo said:
One positive on the GEFS is the pac ridge weakens and allows trough to pull back far enough west and heights lower in SE. And of course NAO but we know that won’t happen

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Doesn't this scream ice for the deep south? you can see the long range op gfs trying, to show some mixed/zr/sleet.
 
GaWx said:
I would have done multiple likes for that if I could. Maybe so (I had an enjoyable one yesterday evening), but I don't just like to report on only good news in the spirit of objectivity. Admittedly, though, I tend to get quiet and sometimes disappear from posting for a period when it is looking mild in the SE US. But I'm not at the moment during this crucial period from a forecasting point of view.
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You are only 2 hours north of me; if you quit posting or go into a vanishing mode, I've got a GMC that'll quickly take me up I-95 to hunt you down and reinvigorate you ... :cool:
Yes, and I'd toss you 5000 likes if the software would allow ... ;)
 
pcbjr said:
You are only 2 hours north of me; if you quit posting or go into a vanishing mode, I've got a GMC that'll quickly take me up I-95 to hunt you down and reinvigorate you ... :cool:
Yes, and I'd toss you 5000 likes if the software would allow ... ;)
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Can you fellas take this discussion to the banter thread or pm please? Many thanks.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Lol this is what the euro showed, I posted on banter yesterday, sure, it’s a really good weather model, but I should have 3 inches of snow on the ground rn.... it’s not perfect either and the fact the eps took a step towards the gefs last night is even worse, maybe it will improve today but we’ll see View attachment 14782
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I’m talking MJO forecasts not fantasy storms in the long range ... we’ve been told time and time again you don’t look at any specifics that far out. If u believe specifics that far out you will get burned every time. Mjo forecasts have been steadily going into the COLD phases for us for later ... you can’t look at every model runs specifics for 360 hours out and say yep that’s 100 percent going to happen ... because it’s not other models have finally started putting MJO forecasts in 8 just as euro has ... eventually that will make its way to the surface maps and we will eventually have a storm to track.
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
I’m talking MJO forecasts not fantasy storms in the long range ... we’ve been told time and time again you don’t look at any specifics that far out. If u believe specifics that far out you will get burned every time. Mjo forecasts have been steadily going into the COLD phases for us for later ... you can’t look at every model runs specifics for 360 hours out and say yep that’s 100 percent going to happen ... because it’s not other models have finally started putting MJO forecasts in 8 just as euro has ... eventually that will make its way to the surface maps and we will eventually have a storm to track.
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We shall see, but MJO is initially going vs a strong SER/-PNA combo, gefs did show some hope at the end probably due to better phases
 
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