Be careful with WAR like the CMC is showing. Remember that the WAR has been a problem this winter.
Still 8 days out. A little too early to throw in the towel yet. Maybe the ensembles are onto something this time. Unless there is another reason with the pattern to say it can't happen, then at least there is a chance. No guarantee, but maybe it will turn out to be good.
It would be cool to have a sleet storm. Bring it own.A lot of this is sleet and ZR
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I wouldn't necessarily say that the GFS has been all bad it just this winter it hasn't had a good track record so far beyond 4 daysI don’t see why the GFS only showing it is a bad thing, not like any other model has been good except the RGEM. When we did get model consensus during that fail of a Winter Storm a few weeks ago, they all failed, except the RGEM.
This SE ridge:
View attachment 15461
Needs to weaken for those east of NW/maybe W GA and east of the apps to have a chance. We'll see if that happens.
wow. that gfs run is the best ive seen for the midsouth in recent memory. too bad it will be gone next run.
Ridging is actually sharpening more NE to SW which imo enhances the possibility of an overrunning event for folks to the west. Won’t work for NC/SC outside of elevation. Good for Bama folks thoughAgain, why do people say this unless they have something they see in the pattern to cause it?
Again, why do people say this unless they have something they see in the pattern to cause it?
gfs looks to be on an island by itself alsoBecuase there is something in the pattern that can take it away, a stronger SER for example which has been trending stronger on all models pretty much
It would be cool to have a sleet storm. Bring it own.
gfs looks to be on an island by itself also
Pulling for a little southeast ridge myself ... helps back further west to amp the system as it cutsJust comparing the 12z to 6z, I think a sharper ridge actually helped some precip wise, but playing the game with the SE ridge is dangerous...it could easily trend stronger and that would mean goodbye to a winter storm for anywhere in the SE.
Relying on the GEFS has not worked for me for 3 winters. Not just this one, and yet I'll get roped in again down the road.
all snow on gfs for Huntsville starts off as snow http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfs&site=khsvIt would be cool to have a sleet storm. Bring it own.
Im leaning towards an overrunning event north of OKC (maybe Missouri) come verification with a line extending through the northern tier of the Ohio valley. Rain for the big coastal cities in the NEThis needs to stop if you want a good snow in nc/sc outside the mountains, all I got to say, slightly stronger ridge View attachment 15469
Eh it eventually went to the rainy and warm solutions but now that cold and snow is coming back I believe it’s trying to say something to usThe gefs has a cold snowy bias , it’s been very evident this winter
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The superior and warmer Euro says to not fall for the inferior colder GFS.