• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Fabulous February

Brick Tamland said:
Still 8 days out. A little too early to throw in the towel yet. Maybe the ensembles are onto something this time. Unless there is another reason with the pattern to say it can't happen, then at least there is a chance. No guarantee, but maybe it will turn out to be good.
Click to expand...

Starts Monday in Texas and LA so technically 7. It’s been S^^^^^ winter so I’m grasping for straws .


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
RollTide18 said:
I don’t see why the GFS only showing it is a bad thing, not like any other model has been good except the RGEM. When we did get model consensus during that fail of a Winter Storm a few weeks ago, they all failed, except the RGEM.
Click to expand...
I wouldn't necessarily say that the GFS has been all bad it just this winter it hasn't had a good track record so far beyond 4 days
 
Yeah, besides the December storm here, all of the models have been bad this winter with showing storms 7-10 days out, only for them to disappear or not materialize close to what the models were showing that far out. Seems this winter the ops and ensembles are both only good for showing us there might be a chance for a winter storm, but what actually happens is pretty much up in the air.
 
We all know chances are it’s not going to happen. But at least we have something showing. Something to watch. Snow weenies unite!
 
Gefs through day 8
ec4d6de47b67f733dbe74bbc6b3d90f9.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
GFS forms a coastal on the heels of the big overrunning event. These types 200hr scenarios usually catch my attention because this, to me, signals that there is most likely a LOT more ironing out to do. Even more than usual
 
Brick Tamland said:
Again, why do people say this unless they have something they see in the pattern to cause it?
Click to expand...
Ridging is actually sharpening more NE to SW which imo enhances the possibility of an overrunning event for folks to the west. Won’t work for NC/SC outside of elevation. Good for Bama folks though
 
Just comparing the 12z to 6z, I think a sharper ridge actually helped some precip wise, but playing the game with the SE ridge is dangerous...it could easily trend stronger and that would mean goodbye to a winter storm for anywhere in the SE.

Relying on the GEFS has not worked for me for 3 winters. Not just this one, and yet I'll get roped in again down the road.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Just comparing the 12z to 6z, I think a sharper ridge actually helped some precip wise, but playing the game with the SE ridge is dangerous...it could easily trend stronger and that would mean goodbye to a winter storm for anywhere in the SE.

Relying on the GEFS has not worked for me for 3 winters. Not just this one, and yet I'll get roped in again down the road.
Click to expand...
Pulling for a little southeast ridge myself ... helps back further west to amp the system as it cuts
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
This needs to stop if you want a good snow in nc/sc outside the mountains, all I got to say, slightly stronger ridge View attachment 15469
Click to expand...
Im leaning towards an overrunning event north of OKC (maybe Missouri) come verification with a line extending through the northern tier of the Ohio valley. Rain for the big coastal cities in the NE
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top