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Pattern Fabulous February

Storm5 said:
Gefs through day 10
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Well, the mean looks good, and there are three decent hits and two big ones for here on the individual ensembles. But I keep reminding myself with the last time the ops didn't show anything and folks said don't worry about the ops, look at the ensembles. The ops were right.
 
Western ridge looks a little bit better but the SER/WAR will become a issue if it continues this trend, would keep things rain in nc and turn this thing into a apps runner if the ridge trends stronger D71B7256-6205-4AA3-A62F-2098B78B6875.gif
 
GFS, why do you do this to me? Going to be some two feet totals in Tennessee, I bet.
 
Just looking of the FV precip map, it’s probably flatter with a much weaker SER/WAR ridge, But it will likely get stronger as time gets closer ??‍♂️
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Sleet/ZR makes it all the way down to the coast of the Carolinas at 222
 
Brick Tamland said:
Well, GFS is trying. I wouldn't complain about a couple of inches. Inside 10 days, too, but still a long ways to go. Maybe we'll see it trend colder.
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Continue to get a stronger ridge nudging in from the Atlantic and it would likely trend worse
 
Sure it’s something to watch but I’m not even staying up for this, not getting any amount of excitement for it, i don’t like what the Atlantic looks like (ridge) and that happened with a few storms this year at that range (pushed west as time gets closer)
 
Brick Tamland said:
Why? Or is that just pure pessimism?
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Not pessimism, just reality. We have been chasing fantasy storms all winter with nothing such happening. I want it to be true more than anything, but I also am not biting. This run was nothing like we have seen on any op runs so far. I want to see some consistency and further support from the GEFS and EPS before I get excited again. I was under a winter storm warning earlier this winter and hardly saw flakes.
 
If you could speed that low to our north up by about 24 hours to allow high pressure to build in then we might have something in NC SC...really grasping at straws here
 
Still 8 days out. A little too early to throw in the towel yet. Maybe the ensembles are onto something this time. Unless there is another reason with the pattern to say it can't happen, then at least there is a chance. No guarantee, but maybe it will turn out to be good.
 
Parker said:
Not pessimism, just reality. We have been chasing fantasy storms all winter with nothing such happening. I want it to be true more than anything, but I also am not biting. This run was nothing like we have seen on any op runs so far. I want to see some consistency and further support from the GEFS and EPS before I get excited again. I was under a winter storm warning earlier this winter and hardly saw flakes.
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I'm not trying to be a Debbie downer either but I have to agree with @Parker we definitely been down this road before with fantasy storms only before we all get hit in the face with reality... Consistency is all I look for in the models and I need all of them to show some support before I make it back on top from the cliff
 
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