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Pattern Fabulous February
- Thread starter PEA_RIDGE
- Start date
The big thing that keeps me hopeful is the fact that the Feb 15-Mar 7 period has been kind to our area over the last 30 years. Obviously this has no reflection on the current weather but statistically is a higher than normal 3 week period
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Jon
Member
There’s no fantasy storms on the FV3 and GFS until it makes a move to the euro EPS solution. This 10-15 Day is brutal. Until this ensemble flips, if it does at all, don’t bother looking at GEFS snowfall. If it caves the the EPS, snowfall members will come back.
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cyclogent
Member
I know better, but it's so pretty. All in! 
Cold air chasing moisture. Meh. ???
Boston is sitting at about 5% right now..brutal
pcbjr
Member
Jon,There’s no fantasy storms on the FV3 and GFS until it makes a move to the euro EPS solution. This 10-15 Day is brutal. Until this ensemble flips, if it does at all, don’t bother looking at GEFS snowfall. If it caves the the EPS, snowfall members will come back.
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It scares a Curmudgeon when you post warm maps ...
Guess who's back
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Well, now the storm went poof on the models, and looks like my theory of not getting anymore snow here after having a big storm might hold true this winter. Not sure why that happens, but it just does. Glad I got the big storm in December, but it's like winning the ACC regular season and tournament, getting a one seed in the big dance, and then losing in the first round. We pulled a UVA.
pcbjr
Member
There’s no fantasy storms on the FV3 and GFS until it makes a move to the euro EPS solution. This 10-15 Day is brutal. Until this ensemble flips, if it does at all, don’t bother looking at GEFS snowfall. If it caves the the EPS, snowfall members will come back.
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I'll see your five and raise you ten ...
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Exactly and many areas in NC are spanking the NE US 95 corridor besides the DC area. Certainly makes the recent fail whales sting a lot less knowing your counterparts to the N with way better climo are getting next to nothing by their standards
bring that south bout fifty miles. pitiful I'm rooting for a ice storm at this point.Guess who's back
DTs on the JB train! Sad!? Saying 7 other models caved to the Euro??
I think it will come out too, but until it does, we’re staying off the field, unfortunately.
pcbjr
Member
DT despises JB ... if they actually agree on something, I'm putting it in the stock market immediately ...
The EPS hopefully and likely has the upper hand now. (The CMC and JMA totally suck imho as far as MJO prediction abilities in general, but that’s beside the point and they have tended to be somewhat closer to the EPS than the GEFS from my recall.) Despite the GEFS moving in the direction of the EPS, GEFS and EPS are still far different with the GEFS going backward into moderate amplitude phase 6 through 2/9 while the EPS is then into the COD. The GEFS then goes into high amplitude 7 and 8 while the EPS is in low amp 7, 8, and 1 (by the way GEFS has been horrible recently while EPS has been much steadier in comparison):
What @Webberweather53 mentioned yesterday but ridge/trough is moving west allowing for a more expansive SER...... only keeps trending stronger as time gets closer
That ridge will go away in late March or early April. Just to give us more missable 35 degrees and rain. Yay!! ???
Yeah, the trends in the GEFS have been most disturbing. The hope is that it is totally out to lunch. With its MJO still quite different from that of the EPS, that is not a far-fetched hope. Today’s 12Z EPS will be quite telling to me. Does it cave to the GEFS idea of a stronger SER? If so, the rest of Feb would obviously be getting closer to “toast” territory as I have had a very hard time finding Febs that in the SE were very warm through the midpoint and turned much colder for an extended time in the 2nd half. I actually found no Febs that did that. But OTOH, if the 12Z EPS not only were to maintain its 0Z position but also were to weaken the SER further, it would mean there’s still a decent chance for winter to return to the SE this month in a big way. By the way, the GEPS is in the middle but even it is quite warm in the SE, MidAtlantic, and NE for the 11-15 day period. That’s not good. So, EPS is on its own.
Edit: think of the positive if EPS caves. We’d have a good shot at having one of the warmest 3 SE El Niño DJFs on record and even a shot at THE warmest El Niño at at least KATL. That would be amazing (though not at all desirable) considering how cold the consensus was for the SE.
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Kylo
Member
One positive on the GEFS is the pac ridge weakens and allows trough to pull back far enough west and heights lower in SE. And of course NAO but we know that won’t happen
