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Pattern Fabulous February

Myfrotho704_ said:
Wouldn’t this allow that possible storm to cut if this continues ?
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12z eps through day ten is very active like the gefs
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Tarheel1 said:
No, the press in the NE , pushing SW on the animation is great, acts like a 50/50 low/ block, poor mans -NAO!! Just where we want it now!!
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Just saying cause the epac is probably ? and -PNA won’t help, we’re gonna need to thread a flu shot needle
 
Sleet City USA said:
What's the EPS look for eastern SE?
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Meh, I’ve seen false hopes of dark blues down in the Upstate on both GEFS and EPS, so on, only to get rain at go time. This winter
 
pcbjr said:
Yes, Larry; concur; just hate being the echo of somber news ...
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The 12Z consensus, including the EPS, is still showing the same general idea, N Pac blocking high/-PNA/SER. Tick tock it refuses to change El Nino/more favorable MJO phases be danged. So, still no good hints through 2/25 on the EPS regarding the general pattern. Blocking patterns are often very stubborn and this is a blocking pattern that is blocking what normally would be an El Nino/favorable MJO induced favorable for SE pattern. This is one of the most persistent, stable patterns I've seen in quite a while. Sometimes they're good and sometimes they're bad. This one (-PNA/+AO/+NAO) is bad.
 
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In this pattern, SERidge (duh), Golfer from AR, Memphis members, and perhaps also the NC Triad folks/NC mtns (semi-duh) have the best shot at at least a little snow among the regular posters.
 
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GaWx said:
The 12Z consensus, including the EPS, is still showing the same general idea, N Pac blocking high/-PNA/SER. Tick tock it refuses to change El Nino/more favorable MJO phases be danged. So, still no good hints through 2/25 on the EPS regarding the general pattern. Blocking patterns are often very stubborn and this is a blocking pattern that is blocking what normally would be an El Nino/favorable MJO induced favorable for SE pattern. This is one of the most persistent, stable patterns I've seen in quite a while. Sometimes they're good and sometimes they're bad. This one (-PNA/+AO/+NAO) is bad.
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Very bad, if I may editorialize ...
 
GaWx said:
The 12Z consensus, including the EPS, is still showing the same general idea, N Pac blocking high/-PNA/SER. Tick tock it refuses to change El Nino/more favorable MJO phases be danged. So, still no good hints through 2/25 on the EPS regarding the general pattern. Blocking patterns are often very stubborn and this is a blocking pattern that is blocking what normally would be an El Nino/favorable MJO induced favorable for SE pattern. This is one of the most persistent, stable patterns I've seen in quite a while. Sometimes they're good and sometimes they're bad. This one (-PNA/+AO/+NAO) is bad.
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I just hope it's a one year thing and not one of those that lasts for several years.
 
GaWx said:
The 12Z consensus, including the EPS, is still showing the same general idea, N Pac blocking high/-PNA/SER. Tick tock it refuses to change El Nino/more favorable MJO phases be danged. So, still no good hints through 2/25 on the EPS regarding the general pattern. Blocking patterns are often very stubborn and this is a blocking pattern that is blocking what normally would be an El Nino/favorable MJO induced favorable for SE pattern. This is one of the most persistent, stable patterns I've seen in quite a while. Sometimes they're good and sometimes they're bad. This one (-PNA/+AO/+NAO) is bad.
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We're definitely not in neutral ENSO anymore even though the sensible impacts in the SE US aren't what you'd expect in an El Nino February, you simply don't get 3 successive westerly wind burst events, and one w/ > 20 m/s westerly wind anomalies at the dateline in the central Pacific w/o the background state having been already predisposed towards an El Nino to support convection there that non linearly reinforces the subseasonally-induced wind anomaly.

This gigantic dateline westerly wind burst is going to set off a pretty substantial downwelling oceanic kelvin wave that'll kickstart a legitimate moderate-strong El Nino later this year and into the winter of 2019-20.
u.anom.30.5S-5N (11).gif


The RMM phase regression maps from Roundy's site don't line up as well when centered over the current period of Feb 10, but w/ early March. The only difference between the regression maps from now vs early March is the OLR (shading) is stronger & further east in the Pacific which better matches the current base state that's either neutral ENSO w/ a clear cut (ongoing) advancement towards El Nino or weak El Nino.
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It's amazing how well this map predicts/corresponds to the current pattern.

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Webberweather53 said:
We're definitely not in neutral ENSO anymore even though the sensible impacts in the SE US aren't what you'd expect in an El Nino February, you simply don't get 3 successive westerly wind burst events, and one w/ > 20 m/s westerly wind anomalies at the dateline in the central Pacific w/o the background state having been already predisposed towards an El Nino to support convection there that non linearly reinforces the subseasonally-induced wind anomaly.

This gigantic dateline westerly wind burst is going to set off a pretty substantial downwelling oceanic kelvin wave that'll kickstart a legitimate moderate-strong El Nino later this year and into the winter of 2019-20.
View attachment 15390


The RMM phase regression maps from Roundy's site don't line up as well when centered over the current period of Feb 10, but w/ early March. The only difference between the regression maps from now vs early March is the OLR (shading) is stronger & further east in the Pacific which better matches the current base state that's either neutral ENSO w/ a clear cut (ongoing) advancement towards El Nino or weak El Nino.
View attachment 15389

It's amazing how well this map predicts/corresponds to the current pattern.

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So, the good news if I'm following you correctly is that the chance for La Nina next winter is quite a bit lower than average at this point. I'd call average somewhere around 30-33% per your tables that go back to 1865.
 
FYI, out of fairness and consistency, I went back and moved about 10 posts that should have been in the banter forum (most were from Jimmy and Mack). No warning points were given. Please try to refrain from the one-liners that don't add to the discussion. Thanks!
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
What the heck is E-7 and E13 seeing that would produce a outcome like that? Is there a site where you can see the individual ensemble entire runs?
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Ensemble 7 shows two southern slider snowstorms for nc than a ice storm, ensemble 13 has a long ice storm for cad areas of nc/sc/ga, crazy run for a lot of the individual members
 
NCSNOW said:
If we end up in a mod- strong el nino next year, itll be a repeat of this winter minus the Nov - Mid Dec frontload. Atleast the expectation barometer will be floor level low. Big el ninos flood us with pacific air the entire 90 day span of winter.
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You are right; the big Q 10 months out is "if" ... hell, i'd just like to see my NWS get a 5 day temp and rain forecast right before worrying about next winter (raining on and off all afternoon, at 10%, if you get my drift) ... :confused:
 
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whatalife said:
18z GEFS...I’ve seen this script before...
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Hm, not often do we have a 7” snowfall mean for RDU and come up empty.

Yes the GEFS has had a snowfall mean of 4” and nothing came of it, but 7” for two runs in a row and this many members with snowfall? You have to wonder...is this model that terrible or does it see something?

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Also, people forget the GEFS sniffed out the Dec snow first. EPS was completely lost at the beginning with hardly any members with snow, I think it was like 5 out of 50 members at Day 10.

The last 7 days of Feb has had my attention based on analogs, but it definitely has it now.


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Jon said:
Hm, not often do we have a 7” snowfall mean for RDU and come up empty.

Yes the GEFS has had a snowfall mean of 4” and nothing came of it, but 7” for two runs in a row and this many members with snowfall? You have to wonder...is this model that terrible or does it see something?

e8d5f73e5b1f96b07aa65413a56c6f7a.jpg


Also, people forget the GEFS sniffed out the Dec snow first. EPS was completely lost at the beginning with hardly any members with snow, I think it was like 5 out of 50 members at Day 10.

The last 7 days of Feb has had my attention based on analogs, but it definitely has it now.


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Yeah. I haven’t lost all hope and the last week of February may still yield something for some in the SE. Still a wait and see game.


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cd2play said:
2011-12 we had a zonal flow most of the winter and it was supposedly a 2nd year La Nina
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In other words, we can get crap winters in both El Ninos and La Ninas. That's fine. I love living here anyway. I did the midwest for 3 years and came back south and never looked back.
 
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