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Pattern Fabulous February

I can't see where any model has been great, I don't think anybody should totally discount it. All models have failed badly at one time or another this year.
 
Also Heres the GDPS 12z today. This time frame (next weekend) has popped up alot on&off on models for several days. No way saying its legit, but it isnt a hiccup that just popped up today out of the blue.

Edit: Could also slap the 18z GFS hr 168 & 12zGFS same time. Summary theres alot of barking by the models. Euro has nice 1040 hp building in through NE same time, but it is dry at the surface.



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Storm5 said:
The FV3 has been crap . Of course you love cause it one storm right in December that gave your backyard snow


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Maybe it just does really well for CAD storms in NC.
 
Gfs has a in-situ CAD, kinda looks like that January ice event for N.C., honestly fits the pattern , get a high pressure that will hit a red light in the NE than once precip starts here it hits the dash
 
Failboat version 3 holds on to the backdoor cold front idea that changes things over but it’s way less impressive and looks to be a massive cutter developing after this storm
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Just like that fv3 has no storm. Very bad models this year


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Not even an inkling of hope if you buy what the GEFS is selling. Ridge city beginning to end. I’d advise you guys not to even look at it. It’s a heavy burden to bear
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Not even an inkling of hope if you buy what the GEFS is selling. Ridge city beginning to end. I’d advise you guys not to even look at it. It’s a heavy burden to bear
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That’s the most likely outcome the remainder of winter


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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Not even an inkling of hope if you buy what the GEFS is selling. Ridge city beginning to end. I’d advise you guys not to even look at it. It’s a heavy burden to bear
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The 0Z GEFS is going for what would likely be a top 5 warmest KATL 2/1-18 on record. that's what a persistent -PNA/SER can do in the SE. I hope it is wrong!
 
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Hot off the press from Larry Cosgrove:

"I will admit that some of the recent weather model output has concerned me. There is the matter of the heat ridge over FL, The Bahamas, and Cuba, which the GFS and GGEM series insist will bring an early end to winter across the eastern half of the nation (say roughly to the right of a Chicago IL to Dallas TX line). But the dissenting ECMWF suite seems to recognize suppression of the subtropical high to the Caribbean Sea side, due partly by intense storms and increased ridging in the vicinity of Alaska and Greenland. Since the European panels have been consistent with this scenario for quite a few runs, I lean toward its colder solution.

With the weakening El Nino trying to assume a Modoki signal before dispersing in late spring (more on that later), there should be more opportunities in February to have cold troughs dominate the lower 48 states. The Madden-Julian Oscillation is not cooperating as of now (weakening and not linked to the polar jet stream), but may do so as a larger trough moves off of the Asian mainland in about a week or so. Last, but not least, the vast snow cover will continue to generate immense cold air that would be pulled south into the U.S. with an active southern/eastern storm track shown by the CFS and ECMWF weeklies. There is a risk for a significant cyclone in this arrangement around February 15 - 17.

But for all of this to happen, two things must be evident. That the European series is correct (because the other main ensemble packages will make snow lovers over the Mid-Atlantic and New England states cry), and the heat ridge complex drops down below the Greater Antilles. The latter feature is the kiss of death for winter, which looks to be the case next month as the subtropical high will almost surely expand or move northward into Georgia and the Florida Peninsula. But before that happens, in theory colder air could still dominate much of the U.S. before about March, when the analog sets shows a strong retreat of cP and cA values."
 
Yep, no good news tonight. I'm not planning to stay up for the EPS.

I just listened to JB's Sat summary. It was predictable as he didn't budge.
 
Nothing wrong with the euro run more cold than the Gfs at the end of the run which would be the 13th ... easy to get a good storm track a day or so after the euro
 
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