• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Fabulous February

Any good trends last night? The FV3 has developed a strong block 3 out of the last 5 runs around or just after 240 hours. The Euro still looks the most favorable with the MJO, taking it though 7 and into 8 quickly. And the SOI is heading down. The operational models that I saw haven’t been as ugly with the SE ridge as some previous runs, but I don’t know if that means a whole lot. It sounds like the EPS maybe takes a step in the right direction in the mid-term but then gives it back later on in the run? I haven’t seen it, though. Looking for a reason not to bail after the 12z suite. I’m really trying here. Anybody got any help?!
 
Rain Cold said:
Any good trends last night? The FV3 has developed a strong block 3 out of the last 5 runs around or just after 240 hours. The Euro still looks the most favorable with the MJO, taking it though 7 and into 8 quickly. And the SOI is heading down. The operational models that I saw haven’t been as ugly with the SE ridge as some previous runs, but I don’t know if that means a whole lot. It sounds like the EPS maybe takes a step in the right direction in the mid-term but then gives it back later on in the run? I haven’t seen it, though. Looking for a reason not to bail after the 12z suite. I’m really trying here. Anybody got any help?!
Click to expand...
Great trends last night !!!
For Seattle!!80D78287-8F3E-434F-A815-C6B68E2AE373.png
 
Rain Cold said:
Any good trends last night? The FV3 has developed a strong block 3 out of the last 5 runs around or just after 240 hours. The Euro still looks the most favorable with the MJO, taking it though 7 and into 8 quickly. And the SOI is heading down. The operational models that I saw haven’t been as ugly with the SE ridge as some previous runs, but I don’t know if that means a whole lot. It sounds like the EPS maybe takes a step in the right direction in the mid-term but then gives it back later on in the run? I haven’t seen it, though. Looking for a reason not to bail after the 12z suite. I’m really trying here. Anybody got any help?!
Click to expand...
Here's an FV3 fantasy storm
fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_44.png
 
Sleet City USA said:
Here's an FV3 fantasy storm
fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_44.png
Click to expand...
Thanks. That’s a nice map. But you can tell it’s going to fail already. First, it’s the FV3. Since December, it’s been leading the way with fantasy storm fails. Second, you can see the high is already sliding offshore, with the primary headed in to Minnesota. Any good signals with the potential evolution of the pattern? I’m about to head to church, so I’ll check back in after. Is it wrong to pray for a pattern change??! Divine intervention might be our only hope at this point. :(
 
Old GFS might be the best of the ugly I have seen in a while. Instead of 4 massive cutters, at least the last 2 storms are further SE. But it was wrong this time last week with the system getting ready to bring rain today through mid week. I will not get my hopes up until a see a low in FL or maybe Cuba with cold available. Then maybe the NW trend can bring it home.
 
Thus morning’s 0Z GEFS based indices continue to be absolutely lousy throughout the bulk of the 2 week period if you want a cold SE: -PNA, +AO, and +NAO. Tick tock, assuming these are right, we’re now down to just the last few days of Feb for the earliest we could see a favorable pattern change. The GEFS and EPS continue with a very persistent N Pac blocking/ridging pattern that just won’t go away. N Pac block is essentially —PNA. We want that block to either dissipate or move 1000-1500 miles east of where it is but it won’t do either. A block/ridge in the wrong place is usually the worst case scenario for it getting cold. Ugly as can be! Nina-like. Great for cold in the NW 2/3 of the US, which is usually great for warmth in the SE. We want a trough where the N Pac block is so we could get a ridge near the west coast.
 
Last edited:
Rain Cold said:
Any good trends last night? The FV3 has developed a strong block 3 out of the last 5 runs around or just after 240 hours. The Euro still looks the most favorable with the MJO, taking it though 7 and into 8 quickly. And the SOI is heading down. The operational models that I saw haven’t been as ugly with the SE ridge as some previous runs, but I don’t know if that means a whole lot. It sounds like the EPS maybe takes a step in the right direction in the mid-term but then gives it back later on in the run? I haven’t seen it, though. Looking for a reason not to bail after the 12z suite. I’m really trying here. Anybody got any help?!
Click to expand...
Our best hope is threading the needle in this look
0a6da6c3a3827f8ccc7e6155812cdb0b.jpg


Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 
Robert West said:
E15 has the southern areas skewed pretty bad
Click to expand...

Not only that but the GEFS’ clown maps have proven to be day in and day out way overdone for the SE in recent weeks. With a -PNA, +AO, and +NAO, the odds highly favor very little to no snow for the bulk of the SE. Obviously, the far N and especially far NW parts of the SE would have the best shot for something significant. But a place like ATL would need a whole lot of luck/needle threading. I’d take the under for ATL and most everywhere vs what this GEFS clown mean shows for the next 16 days.
 
packfan98 said:
For those looking for hope, here are the 6z GEFS clown maps:
View attachment 15368
View attachment 15369
Click to expand...
Gefs show a much better pattern from D8 on than the eps/geps. As you get out in time the gefs flatten the npac ridge and subsequently flatten the SE ridge. The geps eps continue the same ol crap. Given the way this winter has gone lean toward the warmer model until proven otherwise
dc09c6fe496892098fc97cc2c73d8b39.jpg
66620e32bf3bebb791a47ac9b90853a3.jpg


Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 
By the way, the SE warmth has little to do with GW and much more to do with the pattern being very ugly. After all, the NW 2/3 of the US is quite cold. Had the pattern been the opposite, the SE would have been quite cold. Remember that the globe is still only about 2 F warmer than 100+ years ago.
 
SD said:
Gefs show a much better pattern from D8 on than the eps/geps. As you get out in time the gefs flatten the npac ridge and subsequently flatten the SE ridge. The geps eps continue the same ol crap. Given the way this winter has gone lean toward the warmer model until proven otherwise
dc09c6fe496892098fc97cc2c73d8b39.jpg
66620e32bf3bebb791a47ac9b90853a3.jpg


Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
I kind of agree...but the EPS has been the suite showing transitions to colder patterns that never materialized, essentially caving to the GEFS’s depiction of trash. I hate to even entertain the idea of the GEFS leading the way, but the way we’ve seen the pattern play out, it’s at least worth watching.
 
packfan98 said:
For those looking for hope, here are the 6z GEFS clown maps:
View attachment 15368
View attachment 15369
Click to expand...
GaWx said:
Not only that but the GEFS’ clown maps have proven to be day in and day out way overdone for the SE in recent weeks. With a -PNA, +AO, and +NAO, the odds highly favor very little to no snow for the bulk of the SE. Obviously, the far N and especially far NW parts of the SE would have the best shot for something significant. But a place like ATL would need a whole lot of luck/needle threading. I’d take the under for ATL and most everywhere vs what this GEFS clown mean shows for the next 16 days.
Click to expand...
But to be honest the gefs really lost a snowy look like a month ago and hasn’t brought it back and now we’re starting to see it come back again... I wouldn’t discount fully but I would wait for more trends then to just write it off. It definitely is looking way more like the end of winter gets exciting
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
But to be honest the gefs really lost a snowy look like a month ago and hasn’t brought it back and now we’re starting to see it come back again... I wouldn’t discount fully but I would wait for more trends then to just write it off. It definitely is looking way more like the end of winter gets exciting
Click to expand...

Good luck without the GEFS forecasted -PNA, +AO, and +NAO combo changing. And we’re starting to get very late as of the end of the 16 day period now. Furthermore, GEFS and the model consensus have been cold biased in the E US. I see no good news so far today.
 
JB is still adamant COLD the cold is coming in the east this morning? I know go ahead and laugh, I'm just passing His INFO along!! lol

Still too much trough in the west and more will be in the east!
phase 8 correlation!!!
So why is this going back to this day 12,1549809804215.pngthe opposite of what its phase forecast gives and what it is evolving toward in the short term?
HIS answer, its not! its heading to cold and snowy pattern
SOI tomorrows should be the first of the double digit drops......................
 
BIG FROSTY said:
JB is still adamant COLD the cold is coming in the east this morning? I know go ahead and laugh, I'm just passing His INFO along!! lol

Still too much trough in the west and more will be in the east!
phase 8 correlation!!!
So why is this going back to this day 12,View attachment 15370the opposite of what its phase forecast gives and what it is evolving toward in the short term?
HIS answer, its not! its heading to cold and snowy pattern
SOI tomorrows should be the first of the double digit drops......................
Click to expand...

JB is headed to what likely will be his biggest DJF bust ever for the SE US. I mean a Dolly Parton/Pamela Anderson type bust is putting it mildly.
He’s going to need like -100 degree anomalies for the last week of Feb. So, I guess there’s still a chance.
 
Last edited:
GaWx said:
JB is headed to what likely will be his biggest DJF bust ever for the SE US. I mean a Dolly Parton/Pamela Anderson type bust is putting it mildly.
He’s going to need like -100 degree anomalies for the last week of Feb. So, I guess there’s still a chance.
Click to expand...
Let me tell you what he will say (and I like JB) . The SE was a bust in my forecast temperature wise but all the indices and pattern went the way I thought it would, so I will have to dig and find out why I had the overall set up for the winter was correct but it just didn't perform. Now as for you NE and MA those huge snows in Feb and March made the forecast for snow totals right in my winter forecast and the snow geese should be happy, it was delayed but not denied" blah blah blah for another 5 minutes about the NE
 
Let’s just say this, November pattern and dec big dog fooled us into a thinking it was gonna be a big winter, Nothing this past Jan/and still feb and I’m 2inch above average when it comes to snow
 
GaWx said:
Not only that but the GEFS’ clown maps have proven to be day in and day out way overdone for the SE in recent weeks. With a -PNA, +AO, and +NAO, the odds highly favor very little to no snow for the bulk of the SE. Obviously, the far N and especially far NW parts of the SE would have the best shot for something significant. But a place like ATL would need a whole lot of luck/needle threading. I’d take the under for ATL and most everywhere vs what this GEFS clown mean shows for the next 16 days.
Click to expand...
Larry, your just full of great winter news this morning! We all see what your saying though!
 
Jon said:
The CFSv2 is schooling other seasonal models and no one is batting an eye. I think it will nail Feb as well.
ad18dbf54d963208f6431e2a770f6edb.jpg

cc5480194f5269c1f73d326954a0fc8a.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

And they show............
For February???
 
I gotta say, I’m not interested much in this since it’s a week out but honestly you can thread the needle with this look
DA0D09A3-D20C-4072-BF3C-E59A10E7D6B0.jpeg
 
Nice of Tropical Tidbits to not be working properly lately. Awesome. No model data this afternoon, apparently.
 
Wow just saw the stat on WRAL that 2018 and 2017 were both in the top 3 warmest February’s on record at RDU, and 2019 through 10 days so far is warmer than both of them. Spring starts quite early now around here.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top