Great trends last night !!!Any good trends last night? The FV3 has developed a strong block 3 out of the last 5 runs around or just after 240 hours. The Euro still looks the most favorable with the MJO, taking it though 7 and into 8 quickly. And the SOI is heading down. The operational models that I saw haven’t been as ugly with the SE ridge as some previous runs, but I don’t know if that means a whole lot. It sounds like the EPS maybe takes a step in the right direction in the mid-term but then gives it back later on in the run? I haven’t seen it, though. Looking for a reason not to bail after the 12z suite. I’m really trying here. Anybody got any help?!
Here's an FV3 fantasy stormAny good trends last night? The FV3 has developed a strong block 3 out of the last 5 runs around or just after 240 hours. The Euro still looks the most favorable with the MJO, taking it though 7 and into 8 quickly. And the SOI is heading down. The operational models that I saw haven’t been as ugly with the SE ridge as some previous runs, but I don’t know if that means a whole lot. It sounds like the EPS maybe takes a step in the right direction in the mid-term but then gives it back later on in the run? I haven’t seen it, though. Looking for a reason not to bail after the 12z suite. I’m really trying here. Anybody got any help?!
Thanks. That’s a nice map. But you can tell it’s going to fail already. First, it’s the FV3. Since December, it’s been leading the way with fantasy storm fails. Second, you can see the high is already sliding offshore, with the primary headed in to Minnesota. Any good signals with the potential evolution of the pattern? I’m about to head to church, so I’ll check back in after. Is it wrong to pray for a pattern change??! Divine intervention might be our only hope at this point.Here's an FV3 fantasy storm
No and probably, in sequential order.Is it wrong to pray for a pattern change??! Divine intervention might be our only hope at this point.
Our best hope is threading the needle in this lookAny good trends last night? The FV3 has developed a strong block 3 out of the last 5 runs around or just after 240 hours. The Euro still looks the most favorable with the MJO, taking it though 7 and into 8 quickly. And the SOI is heading down. The operational models that I saw haven’t been as ugly with the SE ridge as some previous runs, but I don’t know if that means a whole lot. It sounds like the EPS maybe takes a step in the right direction in the mid-term but then gives it back later on in the run? I haven’t seen it, though. Looking for a reason not to bail after the 12z suite. I’m really trying here. Anybody got any help?!
E15 has the southern areas skewed pretty badFor those looking for hope, here are the 6z GEFS clown maps:
View attachment 15368
View attachment 15369
E15 has the southern areas skewed pretty bad
Gefs show a much better pattern from D8 on than the eps/geps. As you get out in time the gefs flatten the npac ridge and subsequently flatten the SE ridge. The geps eps continue the same ol crap. Given the way this winter has gone lean toward the warmer model until proven otherwiseFor those looking for hope, here are the 6z GEFS clown maps:
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I kind of agree...but the EPS has been the suite showing transitions to colder patterns that never materialized, essentially caving to the GEFS’s depiction of trash. I hate to even entertain the idea of the GEFS leading the way, but the way we’ve seen the pattern play out, it’s at least worth watching.Gefs show a much better pattern from D8 on than the eps/geps. As you get out in time the gefs flatten the npac ridge and subsequently flatten the SE ridge. The geps eps continue the same ol crap. Given the way this winter has gone lean toward the warmer model until proven otherwise
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For those looking for hope, here are the 6z GEFS clown maps:
View attachment 15368
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But to be honest the gefs really lost a snowy look like a month ago and hasn’t brought it back and now we’re starting to see it come back again... I wouldn’t discount fully but I would wait for more trends then to just write it off. It definitely is looking way more like the end of winter gets excitingNot only that but the GEFS’ clown maps have proven to be day in and day out way overdone for the SE in recent weeks. With a -PNA, +AO, and +NAO, the odds highly favor very little to no snow for the bulk of the SE. Obviously, the far N and especially far NW parts of the SE would have the best shot for something significant. But a place like ATL would need a whole lot of luck/needle threading. I’d take the under for ATL and most everywhere vs what this GEFS clown mean shows for the next 16 days.
But to be honest the gefs really lost a snowy look like a month ago and hasn’t brought it back and now we’re starting to see it come back again... I wouldn’t discount fully but I would wait for more trends then to just write it off. It definitely is looking way more like the end of winter gets exciting
JB is still adamant COLD the cold is coming in the east this morning? I know go ahead and laugh, I'm just passing His INFO along!! lol
Still too much trough in the west and more will be in the east!
phase 8 correlation!!!
So why is this going back to this day 12,View attachment 15370the opposite of what its phase forecast gives and what it is evolving toward in the short term?
HIS answer, its not! its heading to cold and snowy pattern
SOI tomorrows should be the first of the double digit drops......................