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Pattern Fabulous February

Gefs says the FV3 is on crack
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To show how warm models/forecasts were as of 1/3/19 for 1/8-17/19, check the image below for the 1/3/19 Radiant 6-10 and 11-15 day forecasts as well as what both the GEFS and EPS had (below their forecasts): +4 to +5 for ATL and RDU. What ended up happening? ATL was right at normal and RDU -2. RDU got a big snow, also. So, the forecasts/models ended up verifying about 5 too warm. So, that would be comparable to looking now at 2/8-17. Folks, when you consider big model misses like this, 2/8-17 is still an eternity away.0499C698-078B-4B1F-9EB5-088886582E5C.gif
 
Storm5 said:
Gefs says the FV3 is on crack
44ba6e2a3eea37918fd97c4f787bb8db.jpg



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Definitely can see that ice signal in cad areas, it appeared more ensemble members had ice/sleet for CAD areas aswell, hmmm
 
GaWx said:
To show how warm models/forecasts were as of 1/3/19 for 1/8-17/19, check the image below for the 1/3/19 Radiant 6-10 and 11-15 day forecasts as well as what both the GEFS and EPS had (below their forecasts): +4 to +5 for ATL and RDU. What ended up happening? ATL was right at normal and RDU -2. RDU got a big snow, also. So, the forecasts/models ended up verifying about 5 too warm. So, that would be comparable to looking now at 2/8-17. Folks, when you consider big model misses like this, 2/8-17 is still an eternity away.View attachment 14739
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Bingo ... ;):):cool::cool::p;):)
 
GaWx said:
To show how warm models/forecasts were as of 1/3/19 for 1/8-17/19, check the image below for the 1/3/19 Radiant 6-10 and 11-15 day forecasts as well as what both the GEFS and EPS had (below their forecasts): +4 to +5 for ATL and RDU. What ended up happening? ATL was right at normal and RDU -2. RDU got a big snow, also. So, the forecasts/models ended up verifying about 5 too warm. So, that would be comparable to looking now at 2/8-17. Folks, when you consider big model misses like this, 2/8-17 is still an eternity away.View attachment 14739
Click to expand...

Now contrast the above to the forecasts/models of yesterday in the image at the bottom below: there’s much colder air available to tap not too far to our NW in contrast to virtually no cold air showing up anywhere in the US as of 1/3 looking out 6-15 days. But still, NC got a big snow just 9-10 days later and the SE as a whole got to a little colder than normal. What happens if the models end up being way too warm once again in the SE US, this time due to much too strong of a SER? This EPS MJO forecast of low amp left side makes me wonder:

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Storm5 said:
Gefs says the FV3 is on crack
44ba6e2a3eea37918fd97c4f787bb8db.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Yeah, it did awesome with the snow we were supposed to have this week, while the models didn't have anything. Guess which ones were right?
 
The thing about the FV3 is it did nail the Dec storm from downtown and has proven to nail surface conditions at 7 day leads but we just don’t know enough about it in these pattern change scenarios I don’t think. Imo it just doesn’t have that kind of merit just yet
 
GaWx said:
The 18Z GEFS maintains a SER/mild SE through the end of its run. Do we toss since it is the 18Z? Do y’all feel it is right? For reasons already stated, I have my doubts/I wouldn’t bet the ranch on it.
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By hour 216, it looked weaker than same time last run, maybe baby steps ?
 
GaWx said:
The 18Z GEFS maintains a SER/mild SE through the end of its run. Do we toss since it is the 18Z? Do y’all feel it is right? For reasons already stated, I have my doubts/I wouldn’t bet the ranch on it.
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As you know we have 2 camps. GEFS says no winter left (or really one for that matter) EPS says JB hang on we have more winter left.
 
GaWx said:
The 18Z GEFS maintains a SER/mild SE through the end of its run. Do we toss since it is the 18Z? Do y’all feel it is right? For reasons already stated, I have my doubts/I wouldn’t bet the ranch on it.
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Agree, Larry, except the 18Z does drop Hogtown one last freeze at the end of the run ... so I'm tossing, but keeping it in the recycle bin for a tad bit ...
 
GaWx said:
The 18Z GEFS maintains a SER/mild SE through the end of its run. Do we toss since it is the 18Z? Do y’all feel it is right? For reasons already stated, I have my doubts/I wouldn’t bet the ranch on it.
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All I know is the storm threats we were supposed to have this week kept showing on the ensembles even know the ops didn't show anything, and people kept saying as long as the ensembles show snow then don't worry about the ops. Well, the ops turned out to be right and nothing happened this week. So, I don't know why we should be putting so much weight on the ensembles now and dismissing the ops.
 
Brick Tamland said:
All I know is the storm threats we were supposed to have this week kept showing on the ensembles even know the ops didn't show anything, and people kept saying as long as the ensembles show snow then don't worry about the ops. Well, the ops turned out to be right and nothing happened this week. So, I don't know why we should be putting so much weight on the ensembles now and dismissing the ops.
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It very well might be the other way round next time. I think there isn’t always a really good understanding of how to use the ensembles or even what they actually are.
 
I think JB and MANY others have busted badly on the temps for the SE but oddly enough, some areas are well within reach of the 167% of normal for snow. Personally I believe most of us will see some more wintry precip, maybe a couple of times, in the next 3-6 weeks after a stout warmup the next 2 weeks. Overall I believe the MJO is going into the phase 8 region and then 1 and 2 will happen (like the EURO predicts) and blocking will set up in a good location for most of us. Obviously long range forecasting. (much like most global warming model predictions) are still not to be trusted for the most part because the influencing factors have not been quite figured out yet.
 
Brick Tamland said:
All I know is the storm threats we were supposed to have this week kept showing on the ensembles even know the ops didn't show anything, and people kept saying as long as the ensembles show snow then don't worry about the ops. Well, the ops turned out to be right and nothing happened this week. So, I don't know why we should be putting so much weight on the ensembles now and dismissing the ops.
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The FV3 was showing two storms in the western part of the southeast east a week and a half ago . It busted on both of them


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