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Pattern Fabulous February

12z gefs is very active in the day 8-10 period with the system the FV3 shows
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This is coming down with temps in the low 20s
And the corresponding clown map
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NCSNOW said:
Just email Mack and Brick and youll get all the data you need. Who needs models.
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Rain , warm , 2 days of lows in the upper 20s, more 60s for about 7 days, GFSv3 fantasy storm on the runs for 3 days, then poof! That’s all you need to know, rest of winter!??
 
Jon said:
The CFSv2 is schooling other seasonal models and no one is batting an eye. I think it will nail Feb as well.
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At the end of January however it almost becomes a nowcast rather than a forecast and keep in mind that other models like the JMA, ECMWF, etc. have to forecast for February at least one month in advance (i.e. beginning of January) and at that point in time the CFS forecast was considerably different than it is now. It's an apples-oranges comparison unless the other models provide a February forecast after being initialized at the very end of January.
 
Webberweather53 said:
At the end of January however it almost becomes a nowcast rather than a forecast and keep in mind that other models like the JMA, ECMWF, etc. have to forecast for February at least one month in advance (i.e. beginning of January) and at that point in time the CFS forecast was considerably different than it is now. It's an apples-oranges comparison unless the other models provide a February forecast after being initialized at the very end of January.
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Yeah well I thought that was a given. Of course it has a better chance to verify when it’s a 30 day forecast and not a 30 day forecast 30 days out. But tell that to the weeklies, they struggle BADLY week 3-4, and that’s a 21-28 day forecast.

It still seems to do pretty damn good even on the last day compared to other LR modeling, especially during Jan and Feb in recent years.


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Jessy89 said:
Once again the fv3 has a storm without any other models supporting it


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And once again it’s got about 0.5% chance of verifying!! A local TV Met here said the other day that he don’t even look at that model.


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NCSNOW said:
Just like the fv3 was saying it would back last weekend
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Yes temps are in the low 20s and all. Massive ice storm!

And I’m sure the ice storm it had for Tuesday/Wednesday (I think that was the days)? Is still on? It shows so many it’s got to hit the odds once in a while!! Lol


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packfan98 said:
Just for fun from the 12z GEFS. Hopefully, it can get some more support from the EPS over the next few days.
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And an IMBY meteogram for fun. It's tough not to get a little excited about the possibility of some type of winter weather.
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Hopefully we can score one more event before spring officially rolls in. I say officially, because its already got off to a head start again. I gave up on winter before Feb 1st. Said then Id just be happy with one more event of frozen.
 
Snowing again day ten in Arkansas and west tenn on the 12z euro. The gefs supports these ideas . Let’s see if the eps follows
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Jon said:
Yeah well I thought that was a given. Of course it has a better chance to verify when it’s a 30 day forecast and not a 30 day forecast 30 days out. But tell that to the weeklies, they struggle BADLY week 3-4, and that’s a 21-28 day forecast.

It still seems to do pretty damn good even on the last day compared to other LR modeling, especially during Jan and Feb in recent years.


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That's the problem though, you're comparing CFSv2 forecast w/ better initial conditions 30 days later than the other runs from seasonal models like the ECMWF, JMA, etc. you just can't make a valid comparison unless those other models that are providing monthly forecasts for February being initialized near Feb 1.
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Anyone know what the euro is showing near the end of its run? Looked interesting and close to something
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All rain most areas of the SE. But for some, like in NC mtns and in N NC, 1-2" snow before changing to prolonged rain. Shows 1" SN Triad to Triangle 2/19 before changing to a prolonged rain 2/19-20. The snow, even if it were to occur like depicted, would be melted quickly.
 
Can we just stop with the FV3 outside of its useful range which is about 72hrs right now. Reminds me of the Canadian 10 years ago and obviously still needs much work.

I do like the 2/21-2/24 period, still a ways out but slightly below normal temps and wet, probably the last chance for many outside of elevation.
 
GaWx said:
All rain most areas of the SE. But for some, like in NC mtns and in N NC, 1-2" snow before changing to prolonged rain. Shows 1" SN Triad to Triangle 2/19 before changing to a prolonged rain 2/19-20. The snow, even if it were to occur like depicted, would be melted quickly.
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Yes, Larry; concur; just hate being the echo of somber news ...
 
Webberweather53 said:
That's the problem though, you're comparing CFSv2 forecast w/ better initial conditions 30 days later than the other runs from seasonal models like the ECMWF, JMA, etc. you just can't make a valid comparison unless those other models that are providing monthly forecasts for February being initialized near Feb 1.
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Yeah I get that it’s not a valid comparison, schooling other seasonal models isn’t the right statement I suppose. It’s still doing a good job. Maybe other seasonals should be initialized 1 day out for a 30 day forecast, obviously they’re trash 30 days out. Lol


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GaWx said:
All rain most areas of the SE. But for some, like in NC mtns and in N NC, 1-2" snow before changing to prolonged rain. Shows 1" SN Triad to Triangle 2/19 before changing to a prolonged rain 2/19-20. The snow, even if it were to occur like depicted, would be melted quickly.
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This is good we don’t want a bullseye this far out we want a storm signal and it looks like we now have one!
 
Sleet City USA said:
These are clown maps or pure snowfall?
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It counts all frozen as snow. I'm sure most of the systems have a mixed bag of precip. I do think we can use it to be encouraged with a better looking pattern with cold air and moisture available. Otherwise, it wouldn't show anything (which is what it's done the last month). There is a chance for more winter precip in the 8-16 day range at least. I don't think Greensboro will get 8 inches of snow during that time period, but in my opinion, it's not unreasonable to think there's a shot at seeing some frozen precip during that time period.
 
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