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Pattern Fabulous February

12z gefs is very active in the day 8-10 period with the system the FV3 shows
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This is coming down with temps in the low 20s
And the corresponding clown map
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NCSNOW said:
Just email Mack and Brick and youll get all the data you need. Who needs models.
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Rain , warm , 2 days of lows in the upper 20s, more 60s for about 7 days, GFSv3 fantasy storm on the runs for 3 days, then poof! That’s all you need to know, rest of winter!??
 
Jon said:
The CFSv2 is schooling other seasonal models and no one is batting an eye. I think it will nail Feb as well.
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At the end of January however it almost becomes a nowcast rather than a forecast and keep in mind that other models like the JMA, ECMWF, etc. have to forecast for February at least one month in advance (i.e. beginning of January) and at that point in time the CFS forecast was considerably different than it is now. It's an apples-oranges comparison unless the other models provide a February forecast after being initialized at the very end of January.
 
Webberweather53 said:
At the end of January however it almost becomes a nowcast rather than a forecast and keep in mind that other models like the JMA, ECMWF, etc. have to forecast for February at least one month in advance (i.e. beginning of January) and at that point in time the CFS forecast was considerably different than it is now. It's an apples-oranges comparison unless the other models provide a February forecast after being initialized at the very end of January.
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Yeah well I thought that was a given. Of course it has a better chance to verify when it’s a 30 day forecast and not a 30 day forecast 30 days out. But tell that to the weeklies, they struggle BADLY week 3-4, and that’s a 21-28 day forecast.

It still seems to do pretty damn good even on the last day compared to other LR modeling, especially during Jan and Feb in recent years.


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