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Pattern Fabulous February

Storm5 said:
FV3 has ice for some
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Just a week out and the FV3 is locked on it. Might need a storm thread tomorrow if this keeps up.
 
GaWx said:
This silly post belongs in wamb. thread. The GEFS and EPS MJO fcasts init in same MJO but days 5+ are far diff.
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Someone said just yesterday GEFS had it looping back towards 6? Said EPS was the more favorable of the two forecasts going into 8 before diving into the COD? Not sure which has handled the MJO progression the best this winter
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Someone said just yesterday GEFS had it looping back towards 6? Said EPS was the more favorable of the two forecasts going into 8 before diving into the COD? Not sure which has handled the MJO progression the best this winter
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The EPS was actually closer in advance of the move into 8 in Jan. GEFS had a near record strong 7. If the EPS ends up being right, there'd be hope for later runs to start coming in colder for mid Feb just as happened with the runs leading up to the move into phase 8 last month.
 
Like Phil did, let’s get serious for a moment. The 12Z EPS has day after day of cross polar flow and extreme cold in W Canada and into much of the western and central US for all of week 2 and colder than the 0Z, but it still has the stubborn SE ridging protecting the SE. How likely would it be that either/both the ridge is being modeled too strongly or the ridge will finally give way just after this run ends 2/17? Keep in mind that the models for 1/11-7 were quite warm 10+ days prior to that period with SE ridging and then started cooling down drastically. That period ended up being the first cold period since a month earlier and much of NC got a big snow. This was when the MJO was just outside COD amp 8 and then into COD. The EPS suggests we’re headed to weak amp on left side, a good place to be on average. So, what are the chances the models are again fooling us into a false sense of SER strength? I think that is a real possibility. Keep in mind what Radiant mets just said: convection concentration is progged to move out of Indonesia and to Dateline, which on average is conducive to a cold SE. The last time the convection did the same was, you guessed it, near 1/11-17.
 
GaWx said:
Like Phil did, let’s get serious for a moment. The 12Z EPS has day after day of cross polar flow and extreme cold in W Canada and into much of the western and central US for all of week 2 and colder than the 0Z, but it still has the stubborn SE ridging protecting the SE. How likely would it be that either/both the ridge is being modeled too strongly or the ridge will finally give way just after this run ends 2/17? Keep in mind that the models for 1/11-7 were quite warm 10+ days prior to that period with SE ridging and then started cooling down drastically. That period ended up being the first cold period since a month earlier and much of NC got a big snow. This was when the MJO was just outside COD amp 8 and then into COD. The EPS suggests we’re headed to weak amp on left side, a good place to be on average. So, what are the chances the models are again fooling us into a false sense of SER strength? I think that is a real possibility. Keep in mind what Radiant mets just said: convection concentration is progged to move out of Indonesia and to Dateline, which on average is conducive to a cold SE. The last time the convection did the same was, you guessed it, near 1/11-17.
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Damn right, Larry ... I just like to point things out and let folks draw conclusions ... you do a stellar job of explaining!
We are 100% on the same page ... :cool:
 
The difference between the GFS & EPS in the longer term is how each model handles this trough near the Kamchatka Peninsula, the EPS digs the trough deeper into the North Pacific, causes the ridge over the Aleutians to amplify and build up towards Alaska giving us a glimmer of hope for something thereafter. Subtle details like these are hard to resolve more than a week or so in advance.

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