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Pattern Fabulous February

GaWx said:
That far S SN of 2/58 was when there was a solid +PNA/-AO/-NAO, none of which are in the 14 day forecast of GEFS.
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Yeah that’s why I did the +10 days....all this is showing is examples of how this pattern can flip in 10 days. I didn’t say it snowed on the analog date.

Another way of thinking of this is 14 day GEFS + 10 day period following.

So we are looking at Day 11-15 + 10

So 11-21 day to 15-25 day period


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Jon said:
Yeah that’s why I did the +10 days....all this is showing is examples of how this pattern can flip in 10 days. I didn’t say it snowed on the analog date


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But going out 14 days, there’s still no indication of any pattern change. If there had been models in 1958 that went out 14 days, maybe they would have shown a pattern change within 14. Currently, the N PAC block/-PNA/SER shows no signs of a big reversal thru day 14.

Until I see the model consensus showing a sig change from the current pattern, I will not be optimistic.
 
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Rain Cold said:
I hear you. It’s just that people use it as a predictor. It’s not. It’s just a talking point. It doesn’t actually mean anything about upcoming snow chances or lack thereof. Kind of like it being 70 before snow. And please, nobody take offense to that — I mean it only to illustrate a point. It’s hard to get snow here anymore. A 6” snowstorm in Dec has no bearing on the rest of the winter, but I have heard it spoken about in that context many times this year. The atmosphere doesn’t care that it already snowed 6”. Just like it’s often warm before a snowstorm (simply because we live in the SE, where it’s often warm in the winter), it’s often warm followed by no snow. That’s all I’m saying with the 6” thing. If it hasn’t snowed by the end of Feb and we had a big snowstorm in the immediate forecast, I’d be more inclined to think that would be the only big one we would get for the rest of the winter. But in mid-December? No.
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Amen and hallelujah to that.
 
GaWx said:
But going out 14 days, there’s still no indication of any pattern change. If there had been models in 1958 that went out 14 days, maybe they would have shown a pattern change within 14. Currently, the N PAC block/-PNA/SER shows no signs of a big reversal thru day 14.
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At 14 days guidance is pretty much a coin toss IMO.
 
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GaWx said:
But going out 14 days, there’s still no indication of any pattern change. If there had been models in 1958 that went out 14 days, maybe they would have shown a pattern change within 14. Currently, the N PAC block/-PNA/SER shows no signs of a big reversal thru day 14.
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Day 7-8 to day 13-14 you see the -EPO breaking down on GEFS. Not sure if I’m missing something here... also I’m not so sure models would sniff out Day 15+ pattern changes even in the current state of modeling, not to mention 58. Sometimes modeling has no freaking clue about the 10-15 day, so I’m always optimistic about pattern changes in that period, especially in the 15 day period that models have a verification score of like 0.1

So you think this pattern will stick for a period of 25 days? I think it breaks down, it likely won’t be in time for anything wintry, but it’s Feb 9th. March snows, although rare, can happen. You’re well aware.

I’m not in no way optimistic for such a thing, but I admit I have a better chance here at RDU than a lot of the board and that’s not missed on me.


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Jon said:
Day 7-8 to day 13-14 you see the -EPO breaking down on GEFS. Not sure if I’m missing something here... also I’m not so sure models would sniff out Day 15+ pattern changes even in the current state of modeling, not to mention 58. Sometimes modeling has no freaking clue about the 10-15 day, so I’m always optimistic about pattern changes in that period, especially in the 15 day period that models have a verification score of like 0.1

So you think this pattern will stick for a period of 25 days? I think it breaks down, it likely won’t be in time for anything wintry, but it’s Feb 9th. March snows, although rare, can happen. You’re well aware.

I’m not in no way optimistic for such a thing, but I admit I have a better chance here at RDU than a lot of the board and that’s not missed on me.


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If you’re talking 10 days after 15 days (25 days out or early Mar), that’s diff from what I thought you were referring to. I thought you meant out just 14-15 days, which shows nothing even resembling a favorable pattern change on EPS/GEFS. That could end up wrong, but there’s no reason to think it will be. But I agree there’s no telling about day 25. And yes, of course, RDU would have a much better chance than most of the SE.
 
GaWx said:
If you’re talking 10 days after 15 days (25 days out or early Mar), that’s diff from what I thought you were referring to. I thought you meant out just 14-15 days, which shows nothing even resembling a favorable pattern change on EPS/GEFS. That could end up wrong, but there’s no reason to think it will be. But I agree there’s no telling about day 25.
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I’m referring to an 11-15 day analog from yesterday, + 10 day period following.

So technically, I’m taking about Day 20-24.



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WXinCanton said:
At 14 days guidance is pretty much a coin toss IMO.
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If models were jumping around, that would be different. But I disagree in the current case with the GEFS/EPS run after run showing nothing even close to favorable. Besides, there’s been a decided cold bias in models recently. Now 25 days from now could much more easily be a difference story. That’s essentially not forecastable though we can try to get a hint based on where we think the MJO may be then.
 
CPC Week 3-4 looks much different and is the period I’m talking about. Feb 23-March 8

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GaWx said:
That’s essentially not forecastable though we can try to get a hint based on where we think the MJO may be then.
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Yep exactly why you kinda have to look at analogs of the past and how we got out of a pattern that was similar in February which was my intention posting the eps analog dates +1-10 day snowfall. Seeing if it was possible this pattern has ever flipped to allow a snowfall in 10 says, which it did for the top 4 analogs (which surprised me). You can find some pretty terrible patterns on those analog dates.



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Jon said:
CPC Week 3-4 looks much different and is the period I’m talking about. Feb 23-March 8

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They’ve been forecasting cold E US in these week 3-4 outlooks for quite awhile and they have not been verifying. Week 3-4 is essentially unforecastable. So, maybe it will be right this time. Maybe not.
 
GaWx said:
If models were jumping around, that would be different. But I disagree in the current case with the GEFS/EPS run after run showing nothing even close to favorable. Besides, there’s been a decided cold bias in models recently. Now 25 days from now could much more easily be a difference story. That’s essentially not forecastable though we can try to get a hint based on where we think the MJO may be then.
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Agree, though things beyond 7 days or so can flip on the turn of dime. Not calling for epic pattern to emerge or anything, I'll leave that to @Rain Cold tomorrow.
 
GaWx said:
They’ve been forecasting cold E US in these week 3-4 outlooks for quite awhile and they have not been verifying. Week 3-4 is essentially unforecastable. So, maybe it will be right this time. Maybe not.
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Exactly. This is just an expectation of a pattern flip. I’m not sure I’ve seen any modeling to support this. Why not just say “we don’t know” instead of conjecture?


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@Rain Cold weve been in a cutter pattern for the better part of 2 months. Who is the big winner here? Anybody? Or is it mainly a snow to rain type of thing for even the most favorable areas to our north?
 
The 7-10 day is at least not a complete shut out yet, we still have the coldest air of the northern hemisphere just to our north, just no way storms won’t cut with the huge -PNA. If it just went neutral even I think we would have a shot at overrunning in this pattern. Frustrating nothing is aligning right this winter.
 
In no way shape or form is this winter over. Yes everyone’s backyard has been sad lately but we are in no means a La Niña patter or one that will provide sustained warmth for us. We are now just waiting for a backloaded winter. U can’t cancel winter until winter is actually over. I swear every 24 HOURS y’all cancel winter... like what... it’s been literally a day Hahahaha I have faith in this pattern and if it doesn’t end up happening(which we should know by March 15) then we can cancel winter and be some scrooges but tbh the winter still needs to catch up in the northeast which is what I think it will be doing in the next week and then after this week let’s see what models are showing then. We all know the models can change significantly in 3 days time so let’s just pump the breaks and chill
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
In no way shape or form is this winter over. Yes everyone’s backyard has been sad lately but we are in no means a La Niña patter or one that will provide sustained warmth for us. We are now just waiting for a backloaded winter. U can’t cancel winter until winter is actually over. I swear every 24 HOURS y’all cancel winter... like what... it’s been literally a day Hahahaha I have faith in this pattern and if it doesn’t end up happening(which we should know by March 15) then we can cancel winter and be some scrooges but tbh the winter still needs to catch up in the northeast which is what I think it will be doing in the next week and then after this week let’s see what models are showing then. We all know the models can change significantly in 3 days time so let’s just pump the breaks and chill
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Well there's 19 days left to score. Unless you are hinting at the possibility of a "front loaded spring" ?
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Well there's 19 days left to score. Unless you are hinting at the possibility of a "front loaded spring" ?
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This winter is toast. The pattern is so bad we’re to the point where fantasy modeling is fringing the Mid Atlantic and shifting hundreds of miles north as we near verification. No chance outside of a fluke snowstorm as we close the month
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
This winter is toast. The pattern is so bad we’re to the point where fantasy modeling is fringing the Mid Atlantic and shifting hundreds of miles north as we near verification. No chance outside of a fluke snowstorm as we close the month
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Let me point out that Atlanta's biggest snowstorm on record was in Late March !
 
Optimism has turned to pessimism. because we have been stuck in this pattern almost all winter. And if we do see it change and get a miller A. It’s going to have to happen at night because it won’t stick in March during the day.


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Myfrotho704_ said:
Exactly what I been thinking/saying, maybe we can squeeze one out in some part of March, we got 3 last winter in nc, anyways ULLs are the most interesting type of system in my opinion
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Even with a ULL we need the surface to cooperate snd that hasn’t happened yet this winter. Remember all of those ULL’s in January where the upper atmosphere was golden but we sat at 50 degrees at the surface? I expect more of that in March
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Well there's 19 days left to score. Unless you are hinting at the possibility of a "front loaded spring" ?
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I’d say about 34 days if you consider March 15th the cutoff date for more then flurries. Yes it’s not as likely once February ends but that doesn’t mean it can’t happen.

This is from April 16th of last year.
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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Even with a ULL we need the surface to cooperate snd that hasn’t happened yet this winter. Remember all of those ULL’s in January where the upper atmosphere was golden but we sat at 50 degrees at the surface? I expect more of that in March
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True... that was maddening, well there’s always graupel/small hail ??‍♂️
 
DixieBlizzard said:
Winter may not be over but optimism for a winter storm is going down the drain and I am typically an optimist. This winter for my part of N GA has royally sucked.
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But at least no one to your south got snow when you didn't, lol. Whenever I get sad and blue, I remember that Friday night in 93 when that weekend tv met said the models were showing snow for the period around the 13 of March, and she went on to become one of my all time forecast hero's :) Plus, I had a great April last year, which set the table for a mosquito free summer, with lots of rain, and only a few mean, bad 90's, so there's lots of cards to turn up yet. All I need is a night in the teens, to escape with something.
 
dsaur said:
But at least no one to your south got snow when you didn't, lol. Whenever I get sad and blue, I remember that Friday night in 93 when that weekend tv met said the models were showing snow for the period around the 13 of March, and she went on to become one of my all time forecast hero's :) Plus, I had a great April last year, which set the table for a mosquito free summer, with lots of rain, and only a few mean, bad 90's, so there's lots of cards to turn up yet. All I need is a night in the teens, to escape with something.
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This winter has a '93 feel to it Tony as far as being a crappy winter until that storm. I doubt we will be that lucky but you never know. Snow missing me to the south at least would be interesting. Snow missing me by 25 miles to my NE in December kind of hurt a bit.
 
Jessy89 said:
Optimism has turned to pessimism. because we have been stuck in this pattern almost all winter. And if we do see it change and get a miller A. It’s going to have to happen at night because it won’t stick in March during the day.


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I really don't get where some of you think that there can't be accumulating snow during the day in March. I've seen it accumulate during the day in late march several times in my life here in the Upstate of SC. One of those was March 25th, 10 inches, began at 11:15 in the morning.
 
tonysc said:
I really don't get where some of you think that there can't be accumulating snow during the day in March. I've seen it accumulate during the day in late march several times in my life here in the Upstate of SC. One of those was March 25th, 10 inches, began at 11:15 in the morning.
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I’ve also seen it snow all day long in March. with no accumulation supposed to be the sun angle. But I’ve also seen snow sticking In May on the blue ridge parkway in North Carolina


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