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What we have here is very likely yet another fantasy wedge in the FV 3 LR.
Pattern Fabulous February
- Thread starter PEA_RIDGE
- Start date
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What we have here is very likely yet another fantasy wedge in the FV 3 LR.
We can't even get cold night behind a cold front this Fab Feb!! Had a Forecast low in mid 20's last night and barely got down to 31..... lol
Congrats phil
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It’s amazing to me how utterly stable this awful pattern appears to be. Model run after model run from beginning to end shows virtually the same exact pattern for the next 10-16 days. It’s almost unbelievable how stable it is. Any word on the EPS? I assume no news is bad news.
Is winter officially canceled? My grass is starting to grow again 
I think the rest of February holds average to above average temps when it rains and a few cold nights in between
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I think the rest of February holds average to above average temps when it rains and a few cold nights in between Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Dry air killed us today could have had a few flurries if we didn't have a massive dry level
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At this point, I hope we get shut out the rest of the way, so I can be mad about the rest of the winter and so we can hear that useless, meaningless stat about only getting one 6” snow per winter trotted out over and over from now on.
Idk man that stat has more legs than others that have been ran out
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We’ve lost the NAM ice storm tomorrow !?No worries, Seattle still getting crushed!????
I hear you. It’s just that people use it as a predictor. It’s not. It’s just a talking point. It doesn’t actually mean anything about upcoming snow chances or lack thereof. Kind of like it being 70 before snow. And please, nobody take offense to that — I mean it only to illustrate a point. It’s hard to get snow here anymore. A 6” snowstorm in Dec has no bearing on the rest of the winter, but I have heard it spoken about in that context many times this year. The atmosphere doesn’t care that it already snowed 6”. Just like it’s often warm before a snowstorm (simply because we live in the SE, where it’s often warm in the winter), it’s often warm followed by no snow. That’s all I’m saying with the 6” thing. If it hasn’t snowed by the end of Feb and we had a big snowstorm in the immediate forecast, I’d be more inclined to think that would be the only big one we would get for the rest of the winter. But in mid-December? No.
Never really lost anything, never really had it.
Up until today’s runs, it had ice over me and up into NC, for like 3 days, all 4 runs a day
Day 11-15 Euro ensemble analog dates from 2/8/19 run, the top 4 analogs for the 11-15 day are also the TOP 4 snowiest analogs for the SE. The pattern seems to benefit the mid atlantic the most, but I was surprised to see some southern systems
Top 4 analog 500mb northern hemisphere pattern...no surprise here, the strong west-based -NAO is present with a 50/50 low feature. Notice how the -EPO negative tilted ridge and -PNA couplet is present, VERY much like the current pattern we're stuck in.
Top 4 Analog dates + 10 day snowfall (10 day snowfall from the analog date)
Top 4 analog 500mb northern hemisphere pattern...no surprise here, the strong west-based -NAO is present with a 50/50 low feature. Notice how the -EPO negative tilted ridge and -PNA couplet is present, VERY much like the current pattern we're stuck in.
Top 4 Analog dates + 10 day snowfall (10 day snowfall from the analog date)
Day 11-15 Euro ensemble analog dates from 2/8/19 run, the top 4 analogs for the 11-15 day are also the TOP 4 snowiest analogs for the SE. The pattern seems to benefit the mid atlantic the most, but I was surprised to see some southern systems
Top 4 analog 500mb northern hemisphere pattern...no surprise here, the strong west-based -NAO is present with a 50/50 low feature. Notice how the -EPO negative tilted ridge and -PNA couplet is present, VERY much like the current pattern we're stuck in.
Top 4 Analog dates + 10 day snowfall (10 day snowfall from the analog date)
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That far S SN of 2/58 was when there was a solid +PNA/-AO/-NAO, none of which are in the 14 day forecast of GEFS.
better score than GFS, and a lot better verification score than most of the others too