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Pattern Fabulous February

Future radar ( RPM or NAM) showing onset sleet here at around 9-10 o’clock! Even down to Greenwood! Guess we will see if we can get precip in any earlier, could be slightly interesting!?
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
Don't look now but the GFS has a gulf low next weekend. However, it's too far out to even think about right now.
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I looked, couldn’t help it!
This is about a week later, one day they are going to nail this” cold frontal passage low formation “ that keeps showing up!6EB20F7B-1270-43B2-A312-D22FE8F555E9.png
 
All the models have that GFS storm for next Friday. Unfortunately GFS is the only one that dives it out of the plains into the GOM and turns in to noreaster. FV3 miller B's off NC coast, and the Canadian& Euro Lakes cutter. Bottom line its cutting.

The only glimmer of hope I see on LR ens over next 15 days as we draw Feb to a close is we stay closer to seasonal/slightly AN as opposed to the record heat we've had this week. I'm all in still on "winters over train. " The only thing left to rubber stamp this idea is seeing if early March doesn't pull a rabbit out of the hat. Should have that answer possibly by this time next week. Then I'm sure late March and April will lock in BN probably with a stout negative NAO so we can upper 30's /rain lol.
 
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That coastal on the GFS could finally beat back the SER...in a world where the 06z GFS alone on an island is 100% predictive.


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NCSNOW said:
All the models have that GFS storm for next Friday. Unfortunately GFS is the only one that dives it out of the plains into the GOM and turns in to noreaster. FV3 miller B's off NC coast, and the Canadian& Euro Lakes cutter. Bottom line its cutting.

The only glimmer of hope I see on LR ens over next 15 days as we draw Feb to a close is we stay closer to seasonal/slightly AN as opposed to the record heat we've had this week. I'm all in still on "winters over train. " The only thing left to rubber stamp this idea is seeing if early March doesn't pull a rabbit out of the hat. Should have that answer possibly by this time next week. Then I'm sure late March and April will lock in BN probably with a stout negative NAO so we can upper 30's /rain lol.
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You know this yearly NAO turning negative at just the wrong time is not just bad luck or coincidence. Mother nature is doing this deliberately to mess with us. IDK... maybe God is punishing us.
 
Well better than 0
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Geez if the cold front was to be here by tommorow we would easily be at the mid 80s today, it’s 65 degrees out already and a dew of 66
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Geez if the cold front was to be here by tommorow we would easily be at the mid 80s today, it’s 65 degrees out already and a dew of 66
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75 should be easy, despite the “ temps dropping all day” like we fell for during the analfrontal
 
Six Mile Wx said:
The AO definitely took a turn for the worse
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We're on track to see just exactly how bad we can get the pattern for the southeast. I think we're very close to peak awfulness and will start the turn this weekend. I stand by my 12z Sunday call. If we're not seeing a realistic change to something better on the horizon, you can 86 this winter. Not saying we still can't get a fluke, but as far as feeling like winter most of the time, forget it.

I think the 0z FV3 had some decent blocking showing up in near Greenland (I know the GFS regular did). In fact, I think the actual evolution of the FV3 pattern was good. I say *think* because TT decided they wanted to get all screwy with the FV3 maps again. I had to go to PivotalWx, and I'm not used to how those maps are formatted. So I could me making a bad analysis, since I'm not exactly comparing apples to apples.

Anyway, the Euro MJO continues to look good, although from what I could decipher, the EPS looked horrendous and didn't reflect any of that...which is weird, as the MJO has driven the pattern all season. It would be just our luck for it to be overridden here at the end, when it finally gets going in a good phase for us. SOI is crashing too, so that's good. Anyway...12z Sunday is my cut date. Happy Friday!

ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif
 
The MJO looks nice, but isn't there a typical 10-14 day lag between it entering the favorable phases and any impact on the North American pattern? If so, we're pushing any positive influence into the very last week of February, first week of March. Those two weeks can work for us, but it's mighty close.
 
Boom mothertruckers! 0607FBF5-A6A3-45D5-A00C-A66284E16B3C.png443BD37D-6D11-4757-B18F-304D9819045C.png
 
Poimen said:
The MJO looks nice, but isn't there a typical 10-14 day lag between it entering the favorable phases and any impact on the North American pattern? If so, we're pushing any positive influence into the very last week of February, first week of March. Those two weeks can work for us, but it's mighty close.
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No, the stats/maps that show correlation of MJO to US wx are based on no lag. My Jan study was also based on no lag.
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
Some folks need to step back and realize that we live in the south and it’s never going to be wall to wall vodka cold. Just dwo like I do, when it’s nice weather get outside and enjoy it, when it’s cold and snowy, get outside and enjoy it.
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Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
Some folks need to step back and realize that we live in the south and it’s never going to be wall to wall vodka cold. Just do like I do, when it’s nice weather get outside and enjoy it, when it’s cold and snowy, get outside and enjoy it.
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70 s winters featured some wall to wall cold winters in Tennessee... but things have changed
 
Stormlover said:
It's not just about temperature swings.
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True... but 90% of the time with these temps, DPs, and strong fronts moving through in Feb and March... the upper air dynamic environment is there for severe, but for some reason it didn't develop this time.
 
The SE ridge on the 12Z EPS never goes away. I'm in awe of the power and persistence of the SER. What a force to reckon with! Did I ever mention my intense dislike for -PNAs? After 2/10, there are no days in the SE with colder than normal. Most days are warmer than normal but a few are near normal. Welcome bugs!
 
GaWx said:
The SE ridge on the 12Z EPS never goes away. I'm in awe of the power and persistence of the SER. What a force to reckon with! Did I ever mention my intense dislike for -PNAs? After 2/10, there are no days in the SE with colder than normal. Most days are warmer than normal but a few are near normal. Welcome bugs!
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We're starting to get close to @Rain Cold deadline..... seems the clock is ticking
 
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