That SSW was amazing!
Michael Ventrice is a weather God... er goober!
Michael Ventrice is a weather God... er goober!
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Pattern Fabulous February
- Thread starter PEA_RIDGE
- Start date
Yep, cool, rainy and boring until the heat comes with a vengence in mid-May. Awesome.
It was made on February 1stLooks like they issued that 2 days ago, when it looked like cold could actually get S of KY!
Is this a 3rd year Nina?
At least we can squeeze out more than a flurry during Ninas.
gfs starts to break down ser by hour 240, I don’t know or think it will completely collapse, in fact I think it may strengthen again
Lol everyone focusing on the old Gfs when it is barely a model anymore. Gfs is a crap model. Fv3 should be the only model looked at when looking at an actual American global model. And the new Fv3 still shows significant ice storm for the CAD regions basically all of NC at hour 200
Is that what the 18z Fv3 is it back to showing CAD Storm?
Stormlover
Member
We'll score now!
Clown map for this storm is fun for RDU
Hell to the no, no ice please
I’d much rather have an ice storm than a cold stinky smelly miserable rain
Anyways it’s still 200+ Hours, Not really thinking/worried about it since it’s 7+ days
Lots of hints of blocking showing up in the LR. It fits with how this winter should evolve, so I give it credibility. Just gotta get that PNA to respond. I still think it will. My guess is that within a couple days either side of 2/15, we’ll either be in or transitioning to a +PNA/-NAO regime or on the cusp of doing so.
pcbjr
Member
Thanks for not throwing "sun angle" in there ...
STORM6
Member
No doubt we do now. Once he moves along
cd2play
Member
So in other words, just in time for March.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This looks awfully familiar...
Aside from the local sensible impacts here, the bigger picture is what a pattern like this does globally in the longer run say like several months to perhaps even a year from now as far as setting a few key pieces of the puzzle that have some sway in the winter of 2019-20.
Mid-late winter -NPOs (North Pacific Oscillation) fuels positive Pacific Meridional Mode (+PMM) events in the spring that ultimately provides a boost to El Nino during the spring predictability barrier and is favorable modoki/CP ENSO and El Nino in general at least until we're deep into the summer anyways because there's some seasonality in the ENSO-PMM relationship. Given we already have set the table for a NINO as is holistically, and we're reinforcing what's already a pretty decent downwelling Kelvin Wave in the central Pacific as subseasonal forcing persists in the Pacific, I'd lean towards another +ENSO winter next year, and go insofar as to say we'll probably find ourselves contending with a legitimate El Nino in 2019-20.
Aside from the local sensible impacts here, the bigger picture is what a pattern like this does globally in the longer run say like several months to perhaps even a year from now as far as setting a few key pieces of the puzzle that have some sway in the winter of 2019-20.
Mid-late winter -NPOs (North Pacific Oscillation) fuels positive Pacific Meridional Mode (+PMM) events in the spring that ultimately provides a boost to El Nino during the spring predictability barrier and is favorable modoki/CP ENSO and El Nino in general at least until we're deep into the summer anyways because there's some seasonality in the ENSO-PMM relationship. Given we already have set the table for a NINO as is holistically, and we're reinforcing what's already a pretty decent downwelling Kelvin Wave in the central Pacific as subseasonal forcing persists in the Pacific, I'd lean towards another +ENSO winter next year, and go insofar as to say we'll probably find ourselves contending with a legitimate El Nino in 2019-20.
pcbjr
Member