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Pattern Fabulous February

RollTide18 said:
Hit 89 in early March here about 2-3 years ago, definitely gets you in the mood for spring then the cold comes to bring you back to reality.
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Yeah agree, to the point where i just want it to stay warm, cold blast tomorrow/this weekend is a disappointment for sure because what are we gaining from it ? Nothing :(
 
The warmest day this early in the calendar year at Charlotte was Feb 3, 1989 where we hit 81F, I think we could seriously challenge that today.
It managed to snow 2 times later in February 1989, with that storm on the 17th-19th being preceded by temps near 80F within 36 hours of the event beginning. So much for warm ground temps.

February 17-19 1989 NC Snowmap.png
February 23-24 1989 NC Snowmap.png
 
seems obvious snow in Seattle almost always = no snow in Atlanta as usually trough in west usually = ridge in east. I'd be curious if we compare times when it widespread snowed in the southeast, what exactly was the weather in Seattle, as in what was the temp, what was the weather there. seems pretty cut and dry, but wonder if the data was compared, would something stick out in terms of Seattle weather when we got a hit in the SE. like if you found that while it was always warm in Seattle during a hit here, did 80% of the time it was rainy and warm, or clear and warm, etc. Some numbers only Larry could pull probably.
 
GFS with another large swing in solutions. Look at west coast trough.
 

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Webberweather53 said:
The warmest day this early in the calendar year at Charlotte was Feb 3, 1989 where we hit 81F, I think we could seriously challenge that today.
It managed to snow 2 times later in February 1989, with that storm on the 17th-19th being preceded by temps near 80F within 36 hours of the event beginning. So much for warm ground temps.

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It will be interesting to see if this record warmth is balanced out by some solid cold to end the month. It would seem that’s what happened February of 1989?
 
NGTim said:
seems obvious snow in Seattle almost always = no snow in Atlanta as usually trough in west usually = ridge in east. I'd be curious if we compare times when it widespread snowed in the southeast, what exactly was the weather in Seattle, as in what was the temp, what was the weather there. seems pretty cut and dry, but wonder if the data was compared, would something stick out in terms of Seattle weather when we got a hit in the SE. like if you found that while it was always warm in Seattle during a hit here, did 80% of the time it was rainy and warm, or clear and warm, etc. Some numbers only Larry could pull probably.
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I don't need to do it as your assumption is correct. -PNA = NW US cold/SE US warm. Major snow in Seattle is almost never a good sign for the SE.
 
snowlover91 said:
It will be interesting to see if this record warmth is balanced out by some solid cold to end the month. It would seem that’s what happened February of 1989?
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Well. we know it is being balanced now by major cold in the NW half of the US. Also, the first half of Feb of 2019 is looking to be much warmer than Feb of 1989. Whereas the first half of Feb of 1989 averaged warm, it actually had a few well below normal days with the lowest at 21 at KATL. This time nothing like that is being forecasted with the lowest only down to near 32.

Since records started 1879-80, I was unable to find even one Feb that turned around from a very warm 2/1-14 to a solidly cold 2/15-28 at ATL. But perhaps we'll get some solid cold late month for a few days.
 
GaWx said:
Well. we know it is being balanced now by major cold in the NW half of the US. Also, the first half of Feb of 2019 is looking to be much warmer than Feb of 1989. Whereas the first half of Feb of 1989 averaged warm, it actually had a few well below normal days with the lowest at 21. This time nothing like that is being forecasted with the lowest only down to near 32.

Since records started 1879-80, I was unable to find no Feb that turned around from a very warm 2/1-14 to a solidly cold 2/15-28. But perhaps we'll get some solid cold late month for a few days.
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Interesting, thanks for sharing that data and research, I always enjoy reading your posts! I haven't seen the D11-15 EPS posted recently, I'm assuming they've taken a step back from the colder pattern to a warmer one?
 
GaWx said:
I don't need to do it as your assumption is correct. -PNA = NW US cold/SE US warm. Major snow in Seattle is almost never a good sign for the SE.
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yes I'm sort of ashamed i even asked that question. I guess where i'm going with this, is, it seems when we are say a day or two out from a storm chance, if we had some kind of other marker to look at instead of just going to the short range models, and then watching the sky, since most of the time something goes wrong. Maybe its not Seattle, but maybe there is some other city that showed "x" almost everytime the storm worked out for us say between ATL and Charlotte. I chose Seattle cause its about as opposite as you can get from the SE. something like this would take big data and is sort of mby'ish. Just trying to think outside the box. thanks for the reply though!
 
snowlover91 said:
Interesting, thanks for sharing that data and research, I always enjoy reading your posts! I haven't seen the D11-15 EPS posted recently, I'm assuming they've taken a step back from the colder pattern to a warmer one?
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Thank you. This morning's 0Z EPS was awful overall. Only near and at the very end of it was so-so/similar to the prior run. But I don't care much about the mirage at hour 360 when hours 168-312 are much warmer overall.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The warmest day this early in the calendar year at Charlotte was Feb 3, 1989 where we hit 81F, I think we could seriously challenge that today.
It managed to snow 2 times later in February 1989, with that storm on the 17th-19th being preceded by temps near 80F within 36 hours of the event beginning. So much for warm ground temps.

View attachment 15250
View attachment 15249
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Be nice to get a repeat. Another example of it being really warm here followed by snow just a few days later.
 
GaWx said:
This morning's 0Z EPS was awful overall. Only near and at the very end of it was so-so/similar to the prior run. But I don't care much about the mirage at hour 360 when hours 168-312 are much warmer overall.
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Thanks, I figured it must have been pretty bad. It'll be interesting to see how the 12z goes.
 
12Z GFS pattern: "SE ridges r us" in the 11-15 day period fwiw though it has a major ZR in much of the SE on 1/22-3 lmao if anyone really cares.
 
GaWx said:
For the SE to ever get to a cold dominated pattern and lose the SER, that strong/stable N Pac block has to go bye bye. It is killing our winter now.
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Well the NP block either has to go away entirely or become exceptionally strong/propagate poleward into Alaska, the NW territories, and/or the Pacific-arctic.
 
From Radiant this morning:

"The large scale pattern for most of the next two weeks can be characterized by the –PNA. PNA stands for Pacific/North American pattern, with its phases being associated with strong fluctuations in the strength and location of the East Asian jet stream (NOAA). When in its negative phase, that jet stream becomes retracted toward east Asia, blocking activity increases over the northern Pacific, and a split flow configuration evolves in the central Pacific. For the US, a strong subtropical jet stream results in unsettled conditions for the Eastern Half, a cold response in the Northwest and warm response in the Southeast. The PNA is projected to hold in its negative phase through the 15 Day period, and thus the temperature forecast has an element of persistence among periods. Later in the 11-15 Day period, models are showing a tendency to change the northern Atlantic state to one characterized by a –NAO. This could change the US response, with lower confidence as it relates to the durability of warm ridging over the South and East. We keep confidence low regarding the output of models, as they are often biased to over-phase features in these setups. Phasing of troughs may have a role in evolving the –NAO projected in models."

Man, I hate -PNAs!
 
Warmest El Ninos ATL:

1. 2015-6: 49.5
2. 1991-2: 48.6
3. 1951-2: 48.3
4. 1994-5: 47.7
5. 2006-7: 47.2
6. 2004-5: 46.7

Currently, 2018-9 is on track to be 2nd warmest at ATL of about 48 El Ninos since 1880-1 with ~48.9 based on the current Radiant forecast.
 
And for some more good news, the 12Z EPS through day 11 is holding onto the majority of the warming that the 0Z EPS had with a seemingly endless N Pac block/SE ridge dominating. After day 11, it looks like it may cool back some.
 
GaWx said:
From Radiant this morning:

"The large scale pattern for most of the next two weeks can be characterized by the –PNA. PNA stands for Pacific/North American pattern, with its phases being associated with strong fluctuations in the strength and location of the East Asian jet stream (NOAA). When in its negative phase, that jet stream becomes retracted toward east Asia, blocking activity increases over the northern Pacific, and a split flow configuration evolves in the central Pacific. For the US, a strong subtropical jet stream results in unsettled conditions for the Eastern Half, a cold response in the Northwest and warm response in the Southeast. The PNA is projected to hold in its negative phase through the 15 Day period, and thus the temperature forecast has an element of persistence among periods. Later in the 11-15 Day period, models are showing a tendency to change the northern Atlantic state to one characterized by a –NAO. This could change the US response, with lower confidence as it relates to the durability of warm ridging over the South and East. We keep confidence low regarding the output of models, as they are often biased to over-phase features in these setups. Phasing of troughs may have a role in evolving the –NAO projected in models."

Man, I hate -PNAs!
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That is like the longest 11-15 day period in history. I would swear that it has felt like 90 days or something.
 
Arcc said:
That is like the longest 11-15 day period in history. I would swear that it has felt like 90 days or something.
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11-15 day period in weather is symbolic and the equivalent of 70 times 70 in the Bible (for those who may not know basically infinite)
 
When looking at ALL ATL winters back to 1878-9 to make folks feel better, it isn't even close to winters like 2016-7. Only one of the 12 warmest, 2015-6 (10th warmest) , was El Nino:

Warmest ATL DJF

1. 1889-90: 54.3
2. 1879-80: 52.4
3. 2016-7: 52.3
4. 1931-2: 51.9
5. 1956-7: 51.6
6. 1949-50: 50.6
7. 1948-9: 50.4
8. 2011-2: 50.3
9. 1881-2: 50.3
10. 2015-6: 49.5 warmest El Nino
11. 1998-9: 49.3
12. 2012-3: 49.2
13. 2018-9 48.9 projected

So, it has been a lot worse!
 
GaWx said:
When looking at ALL ATL winters back to 1878-9 to make folks feel better, it isn't even close to winters like 2016-7. Only one of the 12 warmest, 2015-6 (10th warmest) , was El Nino:

Warmest ATL DJF

1. 1889-90: 54.3
2. 1879-80: 52.4
3. 2016-7: 52.3
4. 1931-2: 51.9
5. 1956-7: 51.6
6. 1949-50: 50.6
7. 1948-9: 50.4
8. 2011-2: 50.3
9. 1881-2: 50.3
10. 2015-6: 49.5 warmest El Nino
11. 1998-9: 49.3
12. 2012-3: 49.2
13. 2018-9 48.9 projected

So, it has been a lot worse!
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Larry if I cut my finger off right now and then someone says, it could be worse so and so cut his arm off...... while true it doesn't make my pain go away. But I appreciated the effort :cool:;)
 
NGTim said:
seems obvious snow in Seattle almost always = no snow in Atlanta as usually trough in west usually = ridge in east. I'd be curious if we compare times when it widespread snowed in the southeast, what exactly was the weather in Seattle, as in what was the temp, what was the weather there. seems pretty cut and dry, but wonder if the data was compared, would something stick out in terms of Seattle weather when we got a hit in the SE. like if you found that while it was always warm in Seattle during a hit here, did 80% of the time it was rainy and warm, or clear and warm, etc. Some numbers only Larry could pull probably.
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No data research done on my part but I do think when Seattle gets snow it usually mean we don’t. I can remember a few times over the last 10-12 years that Seattle got some good snows and I was bummed as we weren’t having a good winter during those times. The east and west coast usually aren’t cold or warm at the same time during winter so it seems it would make sense.
 
6 of the 12 warmest ATL winters had a subsequent March that was colder than Feb of 2019 is projected to be. So, something there to hope for.
 
GaWx said:
Yep, that was the warmest March on record at ATL. What a miserable DJFM 2011-12 was!
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Even though your stats show 2016-7 winter was warmer than 2011-2 i will always remember 2011-2 as being the warmest winter ive experienced. Im pretty sure if you were doing astronomical winter 2011-2 would be higher in the rankings.
 
GaWx said:
When looking at ALL ATL winters back to 1878-9 to make folks feel better, it isn't even close to winters like 2016-7. Only one of the 12 warmest, 2015-6 (10th warmest) , was El Nino:

Warmest ATL DJF

1. 1889-90: 54.3
2. 1879-80: 52.4
3. 2016-7: 52.3
4. 1931-2: 51.9
5. 1956-7: 51.6
6. 1949-50: 50.6
7. 1948-9: 50.4
8. 2011-2: 50.3
9. 1881-2: 50.3
10. 2015-6: 49.5 warmest El Nino
11. 1998-9: 49.3
12. 2012-3: 49.2
13. 2018-9 48.9 projected

So, it has been a lot worse!
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Larry, I'm sick to death of the winterless winters in the deep south. The cherry trees are blooming. My blue berries are budding out. It's high time Katla, or Laki went off and gave us glaciation in the deep south :) 9 months of summer, 2 of fallspring, and one of winter, just doesn't get it. When my lowest temp is 24 I throw up my hands. Now, I did love last April, when it was cold and gray all month, so that could ease my angst some were it to occur again, but that's a shabby consolation prize :) It's 80 today, and that sucks, no way around that.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Even though your stats show 2016-7 winter was warmer than 2011-2 i will always remember 2011-2 as being the warmest winter ive experienced. Im pretty sure if you were doing astronomical winter 2011-2 would be higher in the rankings.
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I don't know. They may have been close because March of 2017 was still 4.4 warmer than the March mean.
 
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