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Pattern Fabulous February

BF20C9FC-9842-4867-8091-AC7BFF23E7C2.pngMore miller B action ! That high for the Sunday event, still looks very, very stout on 6z! Local temp forecasts already down to 43 here, was mid 50s yesterday!? Watching NW piedmont, it’s easy for them to score ice!
 
@ Brent can’t get snow, but severe storms right now, nice to wake up to! ?
 
Vast majority of the board is going to see record or near-record breaking high temperatures this afternoon.

ndfd_record_high_se_1.png




Low-mid level westerly flow over central NC could provide a further assist in today's heat as air sinks and warms via adiabatic compression off the Appalachian mountains.
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Minneapolis getting the failboat today! They were forecast for Atleast 4-8” yesterday, for today, now looking like 1-2”, low went South, hope for the CAD this weekend!?
 
Snowflowxxl said:
FV3 has nothing for the southeast now. Hopefully by this and it’s verification scores people will realize how bad it is. The GFS does not need replaced until they can fix its obvious flaws.
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Yep the FV3 crumbled big time on this one, major fail for it! Props to the Euro and UK for picking up on it correctly.
 
So far for FAB FEB, the month that's gonna rock this winter, the one we all bought into by listening to ourselves and everyone else to just wait for. Greensboro is running +10 AN and lord only knows what that # will be after today's mean temperature of +25 gets factored in.

I've seen bust before , especially with LR. But this one takes the cake. I'm as guilty as anyone from back in November. Had it not been for the stellar November and early December snow I'd be stir crazy. This winter was front loaded and then that was all she wrote. Polar opposite of the back loaded heavily weighed forecast.

We finally get to inhale some winter air into our lungs starting this weekend and lasting until next weekend which will put us at Feb15. After that all I see on the models (ens) is the SER being a beast, reasserting itself. Something else that is in the back of my mind is the ole rubber band theory. We've been wet so long (record year 2018). Have you noticed its starting to trend away from that now. Seeing the SER just own the street corner we all live on down here, I'm wondering if we aren't headed toward this becoming the overriding theme as we roll into spring and summer.
 
NCSNOW said:
So far for FAB FEB, the month that's gonna rock this winter, the one we all bought into by listening to ourselves and everyone else to just wait for. Greensboro is running +10 AN and lord only knows what that # will be after today's mean temperature of +25 gets factored in.

I've seen bust before , especially with LR. But this one takes the cake. I'm as guilty as anyone from back in November. Had it not been for the stellar November and early December snow I'd be stir crazy. This winter was front loaded and then that was all she wrote. Polar opposite of the back loaded heavily weighed forecast.

We finally get to inhale some winter air into our lungs starting this weekend and lasting until next weekend which will put us at Feb15. After that all I see on the models (ens) is the SER being a beast, reasserting itself. Something else that is in the back of my mind is the ole rubber band theory. We've been wet so long (record year 2018). Have you noticed its starting to trend away from that now. Seeing the SER just own the street corner we all live on down here, I'm wondering if we aren't headed toward this becoming the overriding theme as we roll into spring and summer.
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If it is, heaven help where ever sits on the western/nw edge of it, where the front stalls for 6 months. It will be #floodmageddon
 
I am going to wait until Sunday at 12z. But if we don’t have a favorable pattern on the doorstep by then, I’m done.

It’s pretty astounding year after year how we can lock into unfavorable patterns but not ever into a favorable pattern.
 
Rain Cold said:
I am going to wait until Sunday at 12z. But if we don’t have a favorable pattern on the doorstep by then, I’m done.

It’s pretty astounding year after year how we can lock into unfavorable patterns but not ever into a favorable pattern.
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The earth has changed. While I’m not a big fan of the whole idea of global warming...there is case a to be made about how it is affecting our weather.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Webberweather53 said:
Vast majority of the board is going to see record or near-record breaking high temperatures this afternoon.

View attachment 15233




Low-mid level westerly flow over central NC could provide a further assist in today's heat as air sinks and warms via adiabatic compression off the Appalachian mountains.
View attachment 15234
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Southeast at it finest. It was 67 degrees here at 6 am. It actually did felt good. Going to be a shock to a lot of people system tomorrow.

6am tomorrow it’s going to be 32. A 35 degree difference. Amazing!!
 
DarkKnight said:
Southeast at it finest. It was 67 degrees here at 6 am. It actually did felt good. Going to be a shock to a lot of people system tomorrow.

6am tomorrow it’s going to be 32. A 35 degree difference. Amazing!!
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Cloudcover will prevent any ridiculous numbers! I’m sure starting out at 66 will help, but already full cloud deck
 
DarkKnight said:
Southeast at it finest. It was 67 degrees here at 6 am. It actually did felt good. Going to be a shock to a lot of people system tomorrow.

6am tomorrow it’s going to be 32. A 35 degree difference. Amazing!!
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64 here this morning and nothing about it felt good to me.... I hate hot muggy mornings in June, I absolutely despise them in Feb. Lol
 
Tarheel1 said:
Cloudcover will prevent any ridiculous numbers! I’m sure starting out at 66 will help, but already full cloud deck
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The blanket may be on, but there is just enough space for the floor vent on full heat to blast up underneath. In other words, since it's coming from the SW, I'm sure it'll have no trouble reaching those levels. It is pretty sad that S. GA and N FL are cooler than the rest of the SE excluding the mountains this morning. Plus I'm sure some areas will break the cloud cover. Looks shallow.
 
Rain Cold said:
I am going to wait until Sunday at 12z. But if we don’t have a favorable pattern on the doorstep by then, I’m done.

It’s pretty astounding year after year how we can lock into unfavorable patterns but not ever into a favorable pattern.
Click to expand...
whatalife said:
The earth has changed. While I’m not a big fan of the whole idea of global warming...there is case a to be made about how it is affecting our weather.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Why I have said before that it looks more and more like patterns and indicies that usually give us higher than normal chances at winter storms don't seem to work out as much now. There is usually some other fly in the ointment to mess things up, and that fly is there more often than it used to be. How often in the past few years have we seen mets say we should have a big winter based on the patterns and indicies and what happened in the past with those looks, only for it to not turn out that way? Really, ever since 2000 here in central NC we are lucky to get one decent storm in winter, and if we do get a big one it is the only one we get. It's more and more all or nothing.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Why I have said before that it looks more and more like patterns and indicies that usually give us higher than normal chances at winter storms don't seem to work out as much now. There is usually some other fly in the ointment to mess things up, and that fly is there more often than it used to be. How often in the past few years have we seen mets say we should have a big winter based on the patterns and indicies and what happened in the past with those looks, only for it to not turn out that way? Really, ever since 2000 here in central NC we are lucky to get one decent storm in winter, and if we do get a big one it is the only one we get. It's more and more all or nothing.
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The actual pattern and actual alignment of indicies never really materializes. That’s the issue. All of the forecasts for good patterns and good indicies, either by the models or by the winter forecasters, end up failing.

My suspicion is that it happens this way because people expect analogs deep in history to be valid today. I’m not sure that method works as well as we think it should. Why? Nobody knows for sure. Not really for sure. Could be the shifting of the pole. Could be the AMO. Could be less ice up north. Could be the warmer oceans. Could be solar related. Could be any number of things. But the climate has changed/is changing.

I don’t want to get into a debate about what is attributable to man vs natural cycles. I suspect that both play somewhat of a role. But going forward, regardless of what historical evidence suggests, going against an above normal winter forecast for the southeast seems like a fools errand.
 
The much warmer 0Z EPS (20+ fewer HDD for the US vs the prior run) suggests the hottest El Niño DJF of the 48 or so since 1880-1 at KATL is an increasing possibility! The current warmest is 2015-6.
 
I'm going to also put a nail in the coffin of the FV3. I don't mean this as a slight to anyone. In fact, I was hoping it was going to be right. And I guess there's still a chance it could. But as far as I'm concerned, it lucked into the December storm. It appears to have blown this upcoming storm. It has also completely blown chunks with it's LR pattern depictions all winter long. It has a pronounced cold bias and a bias of overly strong high pressures. It seems to have a lot of work cut out for itself to even be a better model than the GFS.

And one more thing, as this gets talked about a lot. I actually agree that it's often warm before snowstorms around here. That's not because of magic or fairy dust or some other mystical force at work in the atmosphere. It's simply because the weather is very variable in the Southeast, and getting to 60 or even 70 several times during the winter is not uncommon, especially over the last decade or so. We're going to get a good test of this theory right now, actually. So far, I don't see any threat of any significant snowstorms on the horizon around here.

Pattern changes often lead to winter storms. That doesn't mean that a good, locked in winter storm pattern wouldn't be better, though. It most definitely would. But we don't get those anymore. We get much more variety in the pattern, which is why when you get a winter storm nowadays, you can almost always point to a recent period prior where the temp was warm or warmish.
 
Rain Cold said:
The actual pattern and actual alignment of indicies never really materializes. That’s the issue. All of the forecasts for good patterns and good indicies, either by the models or by the winter forecasters, end up failing.

My suspicion is that it happens this way because people expect analogs deep in history to be valid today. I’m not sure that method works as well as we think it should. Why? Nobody knows for sure. Not really for sure. Could be the shifting of the pole. Could be the AMO. Could be less ice up north. Could be the warmer oceans. Could be solar related. Could be any number of things. But the climate has changed/is changing.

I don’t want to get into a debate about what is attributable to man vs natural cycles. I suspect that both play somewhat of a role. But going forward, regardless of what historical evidence suggests, going against an above normal winter forecast for the southeast seems like a fools errand.
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How much of it is IMBY, today?

Pretty cold up the bend a bit ...


curtmp.png
 
Rain Cold said:
I'm going to also put a nail in the coffin of the FV3. I don't mean this as a slight to anyone. In fact, I was hoping it was going to be right. And I guess there's still a chance it could. But as far as I'm concerned, it lucked into the December storm. It appears to have blown this upcoming storm. It has also completely blown chunks with it's LR pattern depictions all winter long. It has a pronounced cold bias and a bias of overly strong high pressures. It seems to have a lot of work cut out for itself to even be a better model than the GFS.

And one more thing, as this gets talked about a lot. I actually agree that it's often warm before snowstorms around here. That's not because of magic or fairy dust or some other mystical force at work in the atmosphere. It's simply because the weather is very variable in the Southeast, and getting to 60 or even 70 several times during the winter is not uncommon, especially over the last decade or so. We're going to get a good test of this theory right now, actually. So far, I don't see any threat of any significant snowstorms on the horizon around here.

Pattern changes often lead to winter storms. That doesn't mean that a good, locked in winter storm pattern wouldn't be better, though. It most definitely would. But we don't get those anymore. We get much more variety in the pattern, which is why when you get a winter storm nowadays, you can almost always point to a recent period prior where the temp was warm or warmish.
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I agree. I think we have better chances these days of getting a winter storm when we have more variety in the pattern, though, than compared to those times when we have the polar vortex and are cold for an extended period of time. Bitter cold usually just means cold and dry for us. It's a fine line, but it looks like we have to walk that line of just being cold enough for something frozen if we want any chance at all of getting a winter storm here. That's what happened in December, and I just happened to be cold enough to get close to 10 inches of snow, while SE Wake got mostly rain. I think that's going to be the case more and more with how our climate has changed.

As far as the models go, I think they are getting worse than better. Yes, the FV3 got the December storm right, but it has been bad ever since. And the other models have not been much better, especially past 5 days. Maybe it's because the data they use is based on what used to work for us in the past for winter storms, and like we have said that doesn't seem to apply the same these days. They do seem better at getting severe storms right, but even the past few years they have really busted bad with severe weather, too. There have been numerous times the past couple of years when we were supposed to get big storms and didn't, and days where we got more severe storms when we were not even under a watch. Winter storms seems even harder for the models to nail down.
 
Could make a run towards 80*F today, with sunshine.

Some of the trees are already starting to bud and bloom.
 
Rain Cold said:
I'm going to also put a nail in the coffin of the FV3. I don't mean this as a slight to anyone. In fact, I was hoping it was going to be right. And I guess there's still a chance it could. But as far as I'm concerned, it lucked into the December storm. It appears to have blown this upcoming storm. It has also completely blown chunks with it's LR pattern depictions all winter long. It has a pronounced cold bias and a bias of overly strong high pressures. It seems to have a lot of work cut out for itself to even be a better model than the GFS.

And one more thing, as this gets talked about a lot. I actually agree that it's often warm before snowstorms around here. That's not because of magic or fairy dust or some other mystical force at work in the atmosphere. It's simply because the weather is very variable in the Southeast, and getting to 60 or even 70 several times during the winter is not uncommon, especially over the last decade or so. We're going to get a good test of this theory right now, actually. So far, I don't see any threat of any significant snowstorms on the horizon around here.

Pattern changes often lead to winter storms. That doesn't mean that a good, locked in winter storm pattern wouldn't be better, though. It most definitely would. But we don't get those anymore. We get much more variety in the pattern, which is why when you get a winter storm nowadays, you can almost always point to a recent period prior where the temp was warm or warmish.
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Yeah I think now that after posting the 5h bias chart yesterday (below for reference) and the epic fail of it caving to the Euro idea it's clear the FV3 needs a lot of work and has a long ways to go. It's a shame that the old GFS is performing better than in this regard but the UK/Euro blend is definitely the way to go... not to mention the Euro will get a big upgrade June 2019.
5H Bias .jpg
 
Here comes a gigantic westerly wind burst in the central Pacific near the dateline, the GFS may be a tad overdone but I think this is legit and is setting us up for a strengthening +ENSO event in the spring & a legitimate El Nino next winter which we lacked this year.

u.anom.30.5S-5N (10).gif


And no, that doesn't automatically mean hurricane season cancel or vis versa if we have neutral ENSO instead. Simply knowing the sign and strength of ENSO isn't enough, modoki El Ninos have been shown by many to actually reduce the westerly wind shear in the southwestern Atlantic leading to above normal TC activity in the western Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and far SW Atlantic.

This figure is taken from Kim et al (2009). Top panel EPW=east Pacific warming (i.e. East Pac/"traditional" El Nino); middle panel CPW=Central Pacific Warming (i.e. modoki/central Pacific El Nino), bottom panel EPC= East Pacific Cooling (i.e. La Nina). Red (blue) = higher (lower) tropical cyclone track density.

Screen Shot 2019-02-07 at 10.16.10 AM.png
 
Tarheel1 said:
Lol! If the NAM wasn’t off by about 6 degrees warm, last event, and it wasn’t the best with the anafront
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Weren't the NAM and the RGEM both showing very little snow with that frontal system in contrast to the global modeling?
 
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