Pattern Fabulous February

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Webberweather53 said:
Screw looking at d8+ fantasy snows or surface maps, what may be of more immediate concern is the potential for some thundestorms and/or severe weather across the Arklatex region and/or lower Mississippi Valley later next week. As @Myfrotho704_ showed in the other thread, this definitely looks interesting to say the least and fits in general w/ the longwave pattern and our increasingly favorable severe climo that begins to ramp up in February. The weathermodels maps also showed some appreciable CAPE, deep layer shear, etc. but as usual in the front half of the severe season, CAPE will likely be the limiting factor here if severe weather is going to occur.

This is only about 5-6 days out so worth monitoring going forward.

This system is on the SPC's radar
" A larger-scale trough will
seemingly develop over the western U.S. on Tuesday before moving
eastward into the Great Plains Wednesday (day 6) and OH/TN Valleys
on Thursday (day 7). Considerable model run-to-run variability is
apparent by mid week but increasing Gulf moisture will likely reside
ahead of this system in the Mid-South/lower MS Valley."


View attachment 14642
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Starting to take this a little more serious instead of playing around, typical setup for severe wx with a diving trough/ULL in the sw which creates the jet streak seen above, like you said tho CAPE may be questionable due to things like clouds, rain cooled air
6D120AA0-9F7F-4A91-BDD6-F6C4C1FAC94B.png
 
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Myfrotho704_ said:
Starting to take this a little more serious instead of playing around, typical setup for severe wx with a diving trough/ULL in the sw which creates the jet streak seen above, like you said tho CAPE may be questionable due to things like clouds, rain cooled air
Click to expand...

Agree, this definitely is worth watching more so than fantasy range cold/snow bs. Yeah early February boundary layer is at best marginal for significant severe, the Gulf still needs some time to really warm up and until we get deeper into April, CAPE is almost always limiting for severe weather. From May and beyond it's usually shear.
 
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Webberweather53 said:
Agree, this definitely is worth watching more so than fantasy range cold/snow bs. Yeah early February boundary layer is at best marginal for significant severe, the Gulf still needs some time to really warm up and until we get deeper into April, CAPE is almost always limiting for severe weather. From May and beyond it's usually shear.
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Most of our strongest storms/peak damaging wind climo come from summertime pulse storms if I’m not mistaken correct ?
 
Webberweather53 said:
We're definitely headed in the wrong direction.

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I’m all in . Winter sucked , everyone was wrong . Yes we’ve all had good snows late February into March . We’ve been kicking the can all winter. The seasonal models were wrong , the weeklies suck and I’m over it . Bring on tornadoes and hail


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getting rid of the SER is hard, last year was similar, I thought there may have been a pattern change by mid month but everything got delayed (ssw) To March, i know things are never the same but all I got to say is that JBs forecast is about to verify horribly for the SE
 
Webberweather53 said:
We're definitely headed in the wrong direction.

View attachment 14656
Click to expand...
Wow look at all those positive heights across the Western Hemisphere. Seems like the past few years it is a 2:1 ratio of positive to negative heights in general. When it is cold, it can be very cold like the polar vortex we had this week, but they tend to “suck up” all the cold air into one location. I guess this is the new norm for winter now.
 
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FWIW
WK34temp.gif
WK34prcp.gif
 
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Storm5 said:
I’m all in . Winter sucked , everyone was wrong . Yes we’ve all had good snows late February into March . We’ve been kicking the can all winter. The seasonal models were wrong , the weeklies suck and I’m over it . Bring on tornadoes and hail


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We have found every way to suck this year. It started in September with the pacific typhoon and hasnt stopped. Im actually impressed with the staying power and how ugly the models have gotten in the longer range. We all know this is setting up a miserable march and april

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SD said:
We have found every way to suck this year. It started in September with the pacific typhoon and hasnt stopped. Im actually impressed with the staying power and how ugly the models have gotten in the longer range. We all know this is setting up a miserable march and april

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Click to expand...

Yep, blocking, PNA, -NAO till April, starting early March. Gonna have to wear a jacket until May....watch.
 
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