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Pattern Fabulous February

ForsythSnow said:
Yeah that makes a difference. Also that shows the FV3 really is garbage at H5 with a heavy bias a majority of the time and as of lately. With that said, kiss that system goodbye because the FV3 is lost it seems. A -15 bias is quite a large cold bias.
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Yeah it is a pretty large difference compared with the other globals. What I wish we had was bias maps that focused on specific areas, like one for North America, Europe, etc. The WPC lately has been going with a blend of the GFS/Euro which would give us a 1038-1039 high sliding off the coast and wouldn't work in this setup. The UK actually seems to be performing the best of all models right now at the 5h level. It certainly will be interesting to see how this all plays out, I'd say another 1-2 days and it should become pretty clear which camp is on the right track.
 
snowlover91 said:
Yeah it is a pretty large difference compared with the other globals. What I wish we had was bias maps that focused on specific areas, like one for North America, Europe, etc. The WPC lately has been going with a blend of the GFS/Euro which would give us a 1038-1039 high sliding off the coast and wouldn't work in this setup. The UK actually seems to be performing the best of all models right now at the 5h level. It certainly will be interesting to see how this all plays out, I'd say another 1-2 days and it should become pretty clear which camp is on the right track.
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We have a ways to go before we may have one last opportunity at winter weather imo. People are believing the fv3gfs because it has only been showing any chance at winter weather. If mjo goes into more better phases, then we see at that point if it even makes a difference, but we have some time to go to get there imo
 
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It's the 84 hour nam so take it FWIW but it has a 1053 HP dropping down whereas the Euro is 1045mb for the same time (per weather.us maps). That's a pretty significant difference and aligns with the FV3/GFS idea of a stronger HP dropping down. Of course they could be overdoing the HP strength too so it will be important to see how this adjusts in future runs but just thought it is worth noting.
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I also compared the 32km NAM initialization from the 18z run with it's 84 hour forecast to see if there was any significant differences noted. Here is how the 18z initialized.
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And here was the 84 hour forecast. It's interesting that verification actually produced a STRONGER HP in both areas vs what it modeled in the extended range. How this plays out for our upcoming system will be interesting to see, there is a clear disconnect between the Euro vs the GFS/FV3/NAM camp in regards to the HP strength for our system on the 11-12th.
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This storm will either prove that the Fv3 can detect these types of storms well in advance or prove that it shouldn’t be released as a public model until they fixed its vital flaws... this is entering the medium range now and the fact that it’s still showing it says it either knows what it’s doing and the other globals are playing catch up or it can’t be trusted ever
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
This storm will either prove that the Fv3 can detect these types of storms well in advance or prove that it shouldn’t be released as a public model until they fixed its vital flaws... this is entering the medium range now and the fact that it’s still showing it says it either knows what it’s doing and the other globals are playing catch up or it can’t be trusted ever
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It's not just the FV3 though, the GFS is very close to the FV3 with the HP position and strength as well and the NAM would seem to indicate the same. On the other hand you have the ICON, CMC, Euro and UK all with a much weaker HP in the mid 1030s which makes a big difference for potential impacts/CAD. This is the first storm I think we've tracked where the FV3 is all alone so I'm very interested to see which model camp caves. I agree if the FV3 ends up caving to the Euro it will be a pretty bad look for it.
 
It appears the north trend on FV3 has begun. Frozen precip is still confined to NC at 141
 
I would go with a "middle of the road" approach for now. At least regarding the high pressure strength.
 
gfs_wnatl_162_dom_precip_type.gif
 
And looks like it barely moved ... still the general look of a major CAD ice storm continues along with a good north east storm too
 
The wedge only takes about 19 hours to dig down into the upstate and this is still the snowmap result..NEXT
 
Ice storm with over 2" of qpf. Not likely. It looked as if the cold air should have lifted north, but the 1042ish high locked in place instead of lifting out like other models.
 
packfan98 said:
Ice storm with over 2" of qpf. Not likely. It looked as if the cold air should have lifted north, but the 1042ish high locked in place instead of lifting out like other models.
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Any idea what mechanism is locking it in place on the fv3?
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Lol. Good luck with that ice NC. Meh
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Well here is my latest NWS forecast. looks like a lot of RAIN COLD......................... lol

SUNDAY NIGHT...Rain likely. Not as cool with lows in the mid 30s. Chance of rain 70 percent. .MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...Rain. Highs in the mid 40s. Lows in the mid 30s. Chance of rain 80 percent. .TUESDAY...Rain likely. Highs in the lower 40s. Chance of rain 70 percent. .TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Rain likely, mainly in the evening. Near steady temperature in the upper 30s. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Hard to get Ice with those temps! Of course if it looks like it may be cold enough come Saturday they will trim the temps back, play catch up like usual......​
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
And looks like it barely moved ... still the general look of a major CAD ice storm continues along with a good north east storm too
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It has extensively moved and weakened the HP/Signature. This area of SC (CAE) no longer is ground zero with 1 + inches of ZR. We now have 0 on the 18z. That is a huge change vs the 12z FV3.
 
packfan98 said:
Ice storm with over 2" of qpf. Not likely. It looked as if the cold air should have lifted north, but the 1042ish high locked in place instead of lifting out like other models.
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We have ourselves a model war ..... who will blink first? I got this feeling in my gut that I already how this movie ends. Truth be told, with that much qpf, I am rooting for frozen vs. freezing.
 
Shawn said:
It has extensively moved and weakened the HP/Signature. This area of SC (CAE) no longer is ground zero with 1 + inches of ZR. We now have 0 on the 18z. That is a huge change vs the 12z FV3.
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The 12z FV3 was a cold outlier compared with its previous runs though which focused the ice in NC. The 18z run seems to be more in line with its other runs so hard to tell if this is a shift that will continue or just noise.
 
Shawn said:
It has extensively moved and weakened the HP/Signature. This area of SC (CAE) no longer is ground zero with 1 + inches of ZR. We now have 0 on the 18z. That is a huge change vs the 12z FV3.
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And l look for that trend to keep pushing north with each run until it's N Mid Atlantic and NE Ice Storm....................... That we all know has the only chance as of right now. MUST have some other models on board to even consider taking it serious! IMO
 
BIG FROSTY said:
And l look for that trend to keep pushing north with each run until it's N Mid Atlantic and NE Ice Storm....................... That we all know has the only chance as of right now. MUST have some other models on board to even consider taking it serious! IMO
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In all fairness, I have been expecting a north trend all week and it hasn't happened yet. It's getting weird now. Something has the FV3 confused. I guess we will know soon enough.
 
With all of this, what could go wrong and what's to lose? Going to the local Kangaroo station to buy a ton of scratch off lottery tickets ...

4indices.png610temp.new.gif814temp.new.gifm500z_f240_nhsm.gifpna.mrf.gif

Bye ... o_O
 
I now see 5 GEFS members with ice in NC and a 6th one that has some briefly in extreme northern areas.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
Don't look at the Carolinas. Instead, look at the south trend of that low from Kansas to Mississippi.
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Yeah that feature is pretty interesting and also that it’s stronger with the HP and in the same area basically. Other than the 12z run today the other 3 runs are remarkably similar with the snow/ice transition zone.
 
If the high is that strong or stronger and near the lakes and either stationary or drifting east, the low will continue to shift farther south as we move in. Then it will reform farther south on the other side of the wedge. It will not cut very much and it will definitely not reform in central NC in the middle of the wedge.

HOWEVER, the model shows that the high just sits up there and doesn’t move. That is extremely unlikely. The mechanism for providing confluence is a lobe of the PV that moves through the 50/50 position and lifts slowly out. I would expect that in real life, the confluence zone will lift out as the PV lobe moves northeast, due to the lack of blocking, which will cause the high to weaken and lift northeast.
 
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