snowlover91
Member
FV3 has the HP really building in hours 120-132...
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Pattern Fabulous February
- Thread starter PEA_RIDGE
- Start date
FV3 went OFF
Lol FV3 might have just delivered it’s biggest hit
Wth
FV3 came further south...
oh man I can't wait for the good pivotal weather maps
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Skepticism intensifies. I know 90% is ice but ice is wintry weather.
Hmmmmmm. I'm not sure this is believable but at least it's a clown map. If the Euro delivers support I might get some money out of the bank and add some chips to the pile. If. I'm not sold yet.
Would any of the precip in GA,SC, NC be snow or is this an ice or rain event ?
Zoomed in clown map
Absolutely. It’s IP/ZR for most. Just gives an idea of what’s falling as frozen. More of it this run. Wasn’t a big rainer this run before the wedge dug in. I still don’t believe it the least bit. Inside 6 days..
I'm a little fearful of what the zr map may look like, could see some CMC type crazy totals
That looks like it's a little less expansive farther east, right? That would seem to be more in line with traditional CAD than some of the previous maps.Zoomed in clown map
Check out the panhandle! FV3 has lost its mind
If Fv3 pulls this coup we must respect it from now on... it is a little sketchy no ones coming on board but we still have the euro and the trends have been our friend... but if it falls flat we know the Fv3 is smelly trash... I choose option 1 ?
snowlover91
Member
Earlier in the run the snow depth (frozen qpf is more accurate) map is more expansive to the east. I think it accounts for things like melting and such as areas to the east warm due to the low cutting.
snowlover91
Member
Check out the 925mb temps nosing down in typical wedge fashion.
2m temps
2m temps
Makes sense. Thanks. IF...and this is still a big IF in my mind, the high is as strong and well-timed as the FV3 shows, I think the wedging would end up being stronger, forcing the low track/reformation to change...i.e. more wintry farther east. Not trying to wishcast for MBY, because I will rain no matter what. Anyway, this is all still just speculation until more models come on board.
snowlover91
Member
Yeah I think the key difference is it strengthens the HP in SE Canada and holds it there for much of the storm. Verbatim that would provide a nice feed of CAA if it noses down like the FV3 indicates. The GFS shifts it offshore pretty quickly and doesn't build it down as much although the 12z GFS run did improve some.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Yeah it's not that great but there is this and it seems like a start.
Also the CMC has this, and it's not too far off from the FV3. I'm still not buying.
Rain?
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
Member
2024 Supporter
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The suspect issue in this should be the high and precipitation!
Snowed In
Member
snowlover91
Member
The last 4 runs of the GFS you can see a pretty big "jump" in regards to a stronger CAD signature on today's run.
I mean I hate the pattern showing up on it. There's no fab Feb in it.
snowlover91
Member
Euro will be out in a little over an hour. Here's what I'm looking for on it. Does it trend stronger with the HP and in a better CAD position? Does it quickly slide it OTS like the GFS or does it lock it in place like the FV3? What is the low track and how amped is it? These are the features I would advise looking for to see if it takes a step towards the FV3 or not.
Aye it’s a improvement... if you want ice.., there was actually only one member showing a CAD ice storm this time yesterday
Alright this is actually starting to concern me a tiny bit, gefs is trending stronger with the CAD and HP is moving SE with each run 
If, (very big if) that high pressure continues to strengthen and sit over NY/PA, a lot of people are in a lot of trouble. I'd love for the FV3 to be a formidable opponent for the Euro with forecast lead times, but at what cost?
NCCWOP9077
Member
Several members of the 00z Canadian ensemble system indicating a CAD event at 120 hours
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Sent from my SM-J727U using Tapatalk
Snowflowxxl
Member
packfan98
Moderator
GEFS stays very active through the end of the run with more opportunities it looks like:
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Hope we can believe the GEFS this time. It burned us all with the potential for this week. But nice to see it and the FV3 showing potential. I think the FV3 actually had storms for the 18th and 22nd on it's run, too.
Jon
Member
Big oof
Edit: meant to post this in banter, but can’t move it. Mods feel free. Thanks!
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Edit: meant to post this in banter, but can’t move it. Mods feel free. Thanks!
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
So. Imagine the FV3 is right. And.. the ice is the real deal while the wedge is stuck in place.
Look at what happens after all that ice has accumulated. Is this a squall line/strong winds?
Look at what happens after all that ice has accumulated. Is this a squall line/strong winds?
ForsythSnow
Moderator
With that amount of ice, even a gentle 10 mph can cause major issues.
Also here's the snow map.
Both of those totals are lower than I expected for my area. But yes, that would be some bad damage for the midlandsWith that amount of ice, even a gentle 10 mph can cause major issues.
Also here's the snow map.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Worth bringing this up since a lot of modeled ice maps are being thrown around.
I.e. usually a good idea to cut the ice total maps down by 60-75% of course it will vary from case to case.
I.e. usually a good idea to cut the ice total maps down by 60-75% of course it will vary from case to case.