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Pattern Fabulous February

GaWx said:
The 12Z GFS is not one recommended to be looked at by SE wx weenies.
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Yeah it's not that great but there is this and it seems like a start.
gfs_z500_vort_us_29.png


Also the CMC has this, and it's not too far off from the FV3. I'm still not buying.
gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_34.png
 
Rain Cold said:
Makes sense. Thanks. IF...and this is still a big IF in my mind, the high is as strong and well-timed as the FV3 shows, I think the wedging would end up being stronger, forcing the low track/reformation to change...i.e. more wintry farther east. Not trying to wishcast for MBY, because I will rain no matter what. Anyway, this is all still just speculation until more models come on board.
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The suspect issue in this should be the high and precipitation!
 
The last 4 runs of the GFS you can see a pretty big "jump" in regards to a stronger CAD signature on today's run.
gfs_T2m_seus_fh144_trend.gif
 
Euro will be out in a little over an hour. Here's what I'm looking for on it. Does it trend stronger with the HP and in a better CAD position? Does it quickly slide it OTS like the GFS or does it lock it in place like the FV3? What is the low track and how amped is it? These are the features I would advise looking for to see if it takes a step towards the FV3 or not.
 
If, (very big if) that high pressure continues to strengthen and sit over NY/PA, a lot of people are in a lot of trouble. I'd love for the FV3 to be a formidable opponent for the Euro with forecast lead times, but at what cost?
 
packfan98 said:
GEFS stays very active through the end of the run with more opportunities it looks like:
View attachment 15131
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Hope we can believe the GEFS this time. It burned us all with the potential for this week. But nice to see it and the FV3 showing potential. I think the FV3 actually had storms for the 18th and 22nd on it's run, too.
 
Big oof
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Edit: meant to post this in banter, but can’t move it. Mods feel free. Thanks!

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
ForsythSnow said:
With that amount of ice, even a gentle 10 mph can cause major issues.
zr_acc.us_se.png

Also here's the snow map.
snku_acc.us_se.png
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Both of those totals are lower than I expected for my area. But yes, that would be some bad damage for the midlands
 
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