Pattern Fabulous February

[Jessy89]

Get something inside day 7. And it will at least have my attention. Right now it’s just fun looking at the possible scenarios


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[Storm5]

The message is clear . Models are all over the place with timing . But someone in the SE has a chance to score some type of winter storm in the 8th-12th period .


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[snowlover91]

The message is clear . Models are all over the place with timing . But someone in the SE has a chance to score some type of winter storm in the 8th-12th period .


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Yep lots of moving pieces and we are far from a final scenario here. The main takeaway is there will likely be a significant winter storm somewhere in the south if the HP builds in as currently modeled.

 

[Webberweather53]

Not to be outdone but if these winter storms don't pan out, it's worth reminding everyone it's almost that time of the year once again where we have to legitimately worry about tornadoes, especially if you're in Mississippi & Alabama.

 

[SoutheastRidge]

Not to be outdone but if these winter storms don't pan out, it's worth reminding everyone it's almost that time of the year once again where we have to legitimately worry about tornadoes, especially if you're in Mississippi & Alabama.
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Those are very low probabilities arent they ? 0.15% doesnt seem very high. Now if it were 15% that would be high.

 

[Webberweather53]

Those are very low probabilities arent they ? 0.15% doesnt seem very high. Now if it were 15% that would be high.

This is the probability of significant (EF2+) tornadoes over just a single day within 80 kilometers of any location. Integrated probabilities over a few weeks to a month or so and 0.15% turns into something pretty substantial. If you were to look at all severe, the probabilities are about an order of magnitude higher every day than significant tornadoes.

 

[DixieBlizzard]

Those are very low probabilities arent they ? 0.15% doesnt seem very high. Now if it were 15% that would be high.

It just takes one hitting you and you would change your tune about "low chances".

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Speaking of severe weather, gfs does shows some weak to mod low level shear next week with instability of 500-1000jkg, but constant clouds are not supportive of severe wx, flooding is definitely a threat, based off gfs soundings there’s a deep warm cloud layer/very moist sounding next week with PWATs of 1.5+

 

[Stormlover]

heavy precip chances running out through mid month...hope some of this is frozen

 

[Storm5]

Lots of southern stream energy on the 18z gfs


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[Myfrotho704_]

Gfs was Slightly more snowier this run due to less ridging off the east coast, get that ridge a little bit more weaker and the Carolinas can be in play

 

[packfan98]

CAD storm brewing at hr 213 on the GFS.

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

FV3 was even further north and is all rain for even western parts of the SE.

 

[Brent]

Woo

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Let’s see if it becomes a miller b

 

[Cary_Snow95]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

The gfs ??

 

[Rain Cold]

Going to Miller B. Get that Midwest High 10ish mb stronger and it’ll keep it south, everything else remaining equal.

 

[Arcc]

Gonna need that to trend north. I don't want to have to build an ark.

 

[Jessy89]

FV3 was even further north and is all rain for even western parts of the SE.

So gfs now showing a ice storm. And fv3 lost it? Is that correct


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