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Pattern Fabulous February

Nick_boynton_ said:
If this Fv3 storm ends up happening I don’t want to hear any ifs ands or butttsss about it. It will be the superior model alongside the euro in my eyes. Been seeing this thing for weeks and people wrote it off quicker than can be. This is the new American model we should be treating it more so like it than the old Gfs... old Gfs we’ve had some good memories but ... I’m officially tossing you
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If the fv3 had verified even half the time this winter I would of already had about 2 feet of snow. Only seen a couple flurries.. it's horrible
 
SD said:
Its hard to not at least put one toe in the water

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
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Maybe for you in NC since climatology still favors NC more than GA and the FV3 has it verbatim. The energy seems too chaotic for me to believe one model. I need the Euro and others to get on board before I even consider believing a little.
 
Here's FV3 kuchera through 240
snku_acc.us_ma.png
 
As has been stated many times this winter, the FV3 has a known bias of modeling high pressures too strong in the LR only to correct as we approach verification time. If the model doesn't back down, we will have a cad event in the favored areas. I don't want to get too caught up in this, but I think that we might be looking at the best chance of frozen precip since December.
 
Spurs up said:
pretty obvious where feI un

What you think Shawn?
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I currently favor NC, it initally started showing up through 2/3 of SC and almost to the coast. It's backed off little by little in state coverage (when the FV3 has had the ice deal at all).. but we will have to see if other model catches on or if this is a problem with the FV3 that actually, makes it worse in winter than the GFS (for this area). Too cold around these parts..

According to FV3 soundings, bad snow accumulation maps, and precip type, SC should have gotten rocked by Wintry precip back in December.. which of course made no sense. ;)
 
ICON says no winter for 180 hours. I know you guys mostly hate it but it's warmer runs have turned out right sometimes...or maybe most of the time.
 
Improvements based off the gfs, HPs actually getting stronger with each consecutive run and we could use a high pressure in the plains like what this is showing to keep everything showed down in the south, this is a situation where you want a weak sheared wave
CBECE86C-397A-4895-82CC-866E0921C32F.gif
 
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