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Pattern Fabulous February

The biggest takeaway from the last few model suites is that there will be several strong high pressures dropping down and moving across the Northern US. At the same time, it appears to be an active storm pattern. It's going to come down to timing on who, if any, score in the south.
 
WxWatch said:
That system around the 7th - 8th could trend south and east, especially since there is a strong high moving south and east. I'd use a blend between the GFS, FV3 and Euro, so there could be something for the majority of the southeast region for the 7th - 8th window.

I hate to say this, but again, it could turn out to be cold playing "catch up." There hasn't been enough consistency yet for my liking to really put thoughts towards a solution that has a good chance at verifying.

Something did come to mind though, it may turn out to be an over running event for the western portion of the southeastern US, and then an actual low develops on the tail end of the front from the cutter after the 7th (or 8th) that brings the eastern parts of the southeastern region at play.
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This is basically what I see happening based on current modeling. It seems there will be an initial system the 7-8th that could bring a bigtime snow/ice event to western areas of the south and then a trailing system, either overrunning or a Miller A that affects NC/SC/GA. Still a long ways out but the setup with the SER battling against the cold dome is a screaming ice storm setup for someone... and we could see two affecting different portions of the SE as mentioned!
 
12z GFS, we'll need to watch that positive tilt trough, that may very well be the low that develops on the tail end of the boundary. If that trough digs deeper, it will break down the eastern ridge. It may not break it down enough though. If it doesn't, the low may cut or be an APP runner.
e50f7c3f284b09e5e1dae6833cb777c1.jpg
 
Here's the best way to look at it. The FV3 is showing snow/ice threats days 7-10 across most of the SE. Here is the "snowfall" map which actually includes any type of frozen qpf. A good chunk of the SE needs to be watching this period coming up for a potential ice storm... or several all depending on track and timing details.
1548953674433.png
 
snowlover91 said:
FV3 once again has a widespread ice storm for the 2nd wave. This is the type of look I'd expect with strong cold HP's dropping down and the SER trying to flex.
View attachment 14499
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Even if this things finds a way to cut, this could be like the system back in January and have a strong in-situ CAD and still produce ice to rain as a Best scenario, ain’t no way a 1040 isn't initially pumping in shallow, artic air, but yet again models did do that with the dec storm and found “weaknesses” in the HP that ended up disappearing again, I agree this is a time to watch for some ice, I’d go with the western part of the SE having the best chance atm
 
I just have so little faith in a winter storm working out with such a progged strong SE ridge. That doesn't make sense to me. Probably the midatlantic but not the south east. I can't get excited about anything until that things goes away and the trough pushes more east.

Anybody got the last day CFS run of the month for February? Usually it tells the tale.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Even if this things finds a way to cut, this could be like the system back in January and have a strong in-situ CAD and still produce ice to rain as a Best scenario, ain’t no way a 1040 isn't initially pumping in shallow, artic air, but yet again models did do that with the dec storm and found “weaknesses” in the HP that ended up disappearing again, I agree this is a time to watch for some ice
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1/26/04. I've looked at the reanalysis maps for that, and that was an ice storm with a low cutting for areas in east GA to parts of the Carolinas. By the time it warmed up, the damage was done. Probably banter, but the reason it's relatable to this is while I'm not sure about the ridge for sure there, the low cutting makes me think there was a ridge with that one, and it still didn't matter.
 
WxWatch said:
12z GFS, we'll need to watch that positive tilt trough, that may very well be the low that develops on the tail end of the boundary. If that trough digs deeper, it will break down the eastern ridge. It may not break it down enough though. If it doesn't, the low may cut or be an APP runner.
e50f7c3f284b09e5e1dae6833cb777c1.jpg
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Sheash that looks like garbage.
 
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