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Pattern Fabulous February

Storm5 said:
Everyone is focused on the 10th period but for our friends to the west in Texas and Arkansas and maybe Mississippi the late week system next week needs to be watched
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Western Tennessee also... watching that myself
 
Given the lack of cold forecasted 3 weeks ago by modeling, Trusting models is like hitchhiking on a highway of drunken drivers, You are either gonna get run over, or if you are picked up , crash Old school techniques said look out ( and do so into March) Winter NOT OVER---Joe Bastardi
 
That system around the 7th - 8th could trend south and east, especially since there is a strong high moving south and east. I'd use a blend between the GFS, FV3 and Euro, so there could be something for the majority of the southeast region for the 7th - 8th window.

I hate to say this, but again, it could turn out to be cold playing "catch up." There hasn't been enough consistency yet for my liking to really put thoughts towards a solution that has a good chance at verifying.

Something did come to mind though, it may turn out to be an over running event for the western portion of the southeastern US, and then an actual low develops on the tail end of the front from the cutter after the 7th (or 8th) that brings the eastern parts of the southeastern region at play.
 
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GFS looks like it's continuing it's trend to an overrunning event for the western part of the SE mainly.
 
Wait, Pause, Was that a subtropical storm that tried to develop off the east coast
 
I can’t draw but that ser is drawing up a lot of WAA, waiting for that HP to scoot east
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Myfrotho704_ said:
Wait, Pause, Was that a subtropical storm that tried to develop off the east coast
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Looks like it.

While the GFS shifted to one of the first solutions I saw from the FV3, the FV3 just had one of it's gentle shifts north based off what I'm looking at. Outside Arkansas/west TN/northwest MS, it's mostly rain. I saw some solutions that got into Alabama earlier.
 
It's kinda looking like the GFS pushed all it's chips in on that one honestly instead of during 10-12. But let's see what happens anyway coming up, the HP dropping in from Canada here is actually stronger.

Edit: aaannndddd it's rain for most. The solutions where there was a wave slipping underneath an earlier one were ones where it'd work for wintry. This one I don't think will. Now to wait on the FV3 for the second one.
 
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I know one thing, this set up is not good for where I live in Chattanooga. Just my 2 cent worth. Still waiting on some snow here. We have had a little North of us and on the mountains. What, or where I live we need a low tracking in the gulf and make a turn up into SE Ga with cold already setting in place.
 
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