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Pattern Fabulous February

Webberweather53 said:
Very interesting to say the least.
I'm curious to see what the proposed mechanisms are from this paper when it gets published.
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Looks like the MJO has been the defining driver of our weather this winter. Maybe that’s me stating the obvious though as the MJO seems to be an indicator of planetary scale weather patterns.
What’s funny to me is that this tweet would indicate the opposite of what people on this forum have been saying. The “cold” phases that have been so lacking this winter finally arrive, and yet the timing would cause our friend the SE ridge to stay. MJO keeps finding new ways to screw us this winter.


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FamouslyHot said:
Looks like the MJO has been the defining driver of our weather this winter. Maybe that’s me stating the obvious though as the MJO seems to be an indicator of planetary scale weather patterns.
What’s funny to me is that this tweet would indicate the opposite of what people on this forum have been saying. The “cold” phases that have been so lacking this winter finally arrive, and yet the timing would cause our friend the SE ridge to stay. MJO keeps finding new ways to screw us this winter.


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Well it's not the MJO per say what this tweet really says is that the MJO or the SSW alone would favor cold, so the assumption from many is that the combination of the two together must = more cold when reality is actually the opposite!
 
Webberweather53 said:
Well it's not the MJO per say what this tweet really says is that the MJO or the SSW alone would favor cold, so the assumption from many is that the combination of the two together must = more cold when reality is actually the opposite!
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Basically in layman’s term, this winter will likely continue to suck
 
I know it's the 84 hour Nam, BUT.....

We have a nice strong 1053 mb High in Colorado, helping to funnel in an Arctic attack out west. A strong winter storm, probably named Emushi, has plagued the upper Midwest into southeastern Canada with a variety of weathery conditions, ranging from wind-blown flurries to strong snow with mix. Rain to the south in the warm sector is notable over the Northeast, along with breezy fog and warmer than normal air. Farther south, along the cold frontal system, some boundary showers are possible, giving way to a mix of higher and lower clouds and/or sunny conditions with a few wisps farther east into the southeast, where bird activity looks to be moderately above normal. It also appears to be warm and dry, compliments of a heat ridge lurking off of the southeast coast, nosing into the shore. The Gulf waters continue and Generalissimo Francisco Franco is still dead. Thank you.

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Rain Cold said:
I know it's the 84 hour Nam, BUT.....

We have a nice strong 1053 mb High in Colorado, helping to funnel in an Arctic attack out west. A strong winter storm, probably named Emushi, has plagued the upper Midwest into southeastern Canada with a variety of weathery conditions, ranging from wind-blown flurries to strong snow with mix. Rain to the south in the warm sector is notable over the Northeast, along with breezy fog and warmer than normal air. Farther south, along the cold frontal system, some boundary showers are possible, giving way to a mix of higher and lower clouds and/or sunny conditions with a few wisps farther east into the southeast, where bird activity looks to be moderately above normal. It also appears to be warm and dry, compliments of a heat ridge lurking off of the southeast coast, nosing into the shore. The Gulf waters continue and Generalissimo Francisco Franco is still dead. Thank you.

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This setup once the front moves past then leaves a cold/dry airmass is actually good for some IN-situ CAD front end icing, maybe something similar to the very light glaze we had in western nc a few weeks ago, 11-12th looks interesting for that altho this would not likely be a big deal
 
snowlover91 said:
Yeah it was an interesting little system, I'm glad it didn't come inland as we don't really need the rain right now.
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Agree, first time The ground has been truly dry since last July, and yeah system was interesting/weird, little piece of energy helped the LP to temporarily form and get some cyclogenesis going
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The bleaklies' weeks 3-6:

3: SER departing; near normal/warmer than prior run
4: slightly colder than normal/about same as prior run
5: near normal/about same as prior run
6. Slightly warmer than normal /warmer than prior run

Much weaker -AO/-NAO vs last run
 
GaWx said:
The bleaklies' weeks 3-6:

3: SER departing; near normal/warmer than prior run
4: slightly colder than normal/about same as prior run
5: near normal/about same as prior run
6. Slightly warmer than normal /warmer than prior run

Much weaker -AO/-NAO vs last run
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Given how bad they have been maybe this is a good thing

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GaWx said:
The bleaklies' weeks 3-6:

3: SER departing; near normal/warmer than prior run
4: slightly colder than normal/about same as prior run
5: near normal/about same as prior run
6. Slightly warmer than normal /warmer than prior run

Much weaker -AO/-NAO vs last run
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kick ass, Larry ... now to sign into anonymity ... :rolleyes:
 
Once the NAO grazes neutral all bets are off.

nao.sprd2.gif
 
i really don’t know if this matters much atm but trends have been stronger with ridging at British Colombia at day 13+ Gefs, but look at that, -NAO bout to go bye bye 70891AC8-1A97-45C1-8FAC-EEB4ED85FD2C.gif
 
metwannabe said:
Yeah that thing looked legit this morning....40+ mph winds along the coast, crazy

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i Woke up legit thinking it had a sting jet on it due to it looking like it had that “scorpions tail” on water vapor imagery but then I saw there was not strong convection developing on it, nonetheless looked pretty beastly
 
Theres a story link off drudge. In CA lot of resorts had to close. 9 feet of fresh snow and 50mph winds. Increadible pics. Id post but on phone. Sorry for banter but know everyone loves snowy wx. Thats about as extreme as it gets id say.
 
NCSNOW said:
Theres a story link off drudge. In CA lot of resorts had to close. 9 feet of fresh snow and 50mph winds. Increadible pics. Id post but on phone. Sorry for banter but know everyone loves snowy wx. Thats about as extreme as it gets id say.
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Mammoth mountain has had 54” in the last 72 hours and a 81” storm total. Still snowing...
 
Not sure if posted, but I don't like this thing that keeps showing up, not a fan of ice storms and this is the same time-period the FV3 has been on and off for over a week now. Looks wildly different, with a Low over the MI but..

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RollTide18 said:
This winter has been 11-12 levels of boring. Usually I’ll at least have a winter storm miss me to the north by 50 miles, this winter, nothing.
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totally not what was expected or forecasted or hyped to death for months

worst winter of my life... if I had expected nothing maybe not so bad but this is stupid
 
Shawn said:
Not sure if posted, but I don't like this thing that keeps showing up, not a fan of ice storms and this is the same time-period the FV3 has been on and off for over a week now. Looks wildly different, with a Low over the MI but..

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Those highs to our north are no joke, they will likely be strong, but can we get get a classical CAD setup, I hope not as WAA aloft from the SER would quickly change things to ice, I see more in-situ setup with maybe some quick front end ice but that’s a if, it’s definitely something to watch tho
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Those highs to our north are no joke, they will likely be strong, but can we get get a classical CAD setup, I hope not as WAA aloft from the SER would quickly change things to ice, I see more in-situ setup with maybe some quick front end ice but that’s a if, it’s definitely something to watch tho
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Yeah I don’t see how we can hold a wedge very long with the modeled storm track. No chance really
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Yeah I don’t see how we can hold a wedge very long with the modeled storm track. No chance really
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There's a case with a low cutting where we've seen something like that before, but I honestly also stared at the reanalysis map and was like "how did that produce that ice storm"?

So it's possible but not something I'd count on, what @Myfrotho704_ said is more likely.
 
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