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Pattern Fabulous February

Sorry change topic some... Eric. What’s your early thoughts on the severe weather season up coming... that’s what I’m slowly starting to focus on moving forward... though I take a late winter storm...
 
0z GDPS & 6z FV3 both have Ice in western NC Sunday night into Monday. 6z GFS says to warm in NC CAD. Euro has wedge but I cant see if there would be any precip or not. Outside of that continue to enjoy spring rest of the week lol. Another 8-10 days of this weekend weather the Fescue will be awake along with all the chickweed and wild onions etc. Then we can add another month of mowing to the 2019 season!
 
NCSNOW said:
0z GDPS & 6z FV3 both have Ice in western NC Sunday night into Monday. 6z GFS says to warm in NC CAD. Euro has wedge but I cant see if there would be any precip or not. Outside of that continue to enjoy spring rest of the week lol. Another 8-10 days of this weekend weather the Fescue will be awake along with all the chickweed and wild onions etc. Then we can add another month of mowing to the 2019 season!
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Euro is a no go
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The way I see it. It’s not out of the question we thread needle in February and someone sees ice perhaps a little snow. However I accepted this winter as a fail. And El Niño certainly could be the driver behind a active severe weather season.


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This is the classic look in the Eq Pacific we’ve seen in the satellite era when a legitimate El Niño is about to begin where most El Niños started in the central Pacific before migrating east as they intensified. The anomalously warm surface water near the international dateline is tightly coupled to and reflective of the downwelling oceanic Kelvin Wave that’s going to intensify the next several weeks as it comes east.
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Webberweather53 said:
This is the classic look in the Eq Pacific we’ve seen in the satellite era when a legitimate El Niño is about to begin where most El Niños started in the central Pacific before migrating east as they intensified. The anomalously warm surface water near the international dateline is tightly coupled to and reflective of the downwelling oceanic Kelvin Wave that’s going to intensify the next several weeks as it comes east.
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It's going to be interesting to see how the Nino evolves and how the SST's respond to the Kelvin wave mentioned. I'm not convinced yet that it will strengthen over the coming months, most of the models are indicating it will remain steady or gradually weaken this spring/summer. Of course as we know the evolution of La Nina and El Nino can be pretty tough to predict; if we do degrade into a neutral state in time for hurricane season that would be bad news.

Nino.jpg
 
snowlover91 said:
It's going to be interesting to see how the Nino evolves and how the SST's respond to the Kelvin wave mentioned. I'm not convinced yet that it will strengthen over the coming months, most of the models are indicating it will remain steady or gradually weaken this spring/summer. Of course as we know the evolution of La Nina and El Nino can be pretty tough to predict; if we do degrade into a neutral state in time for hurricane season that would be bad news.

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I wouldn't (& I personally don't) pay much attention or give much credence to NWP model forecasts of ENSO at this time of the year because they are typically atrocious until they're being initialized w/ SSTAs in the east-central Pacific near the equinox, hence the spring "predictability barrier". We're clearly moving in a direction that favors stronger +ENSO later this year & the base state as is was already on the cusp of being an El Nino.

I also don't like how the IRI initializes the models with monthly SSTAs then plots a tri-monthly forecast, the latter is almost always going to be lower due to averaging smoothing out extreme values, and I don't agree that the SSTAs for a monthly mean reached +1.0C earlier this winter, most datasets are much lower which is giving the illusion of "weakening" into the spring/summer when in reality it's not.
 
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From Radiant this morning: “The 11-15 Day period is considered a ’high risk’ time frame as the overall pattern being projected in models is not what you would normally expect to see in an El Niño-like atmosphere. Global atmospheric angular momentum is forecast in its positive phase (+GLAAM), and this alongside enhanced storminess over the very warm waters around the International Dateline correlate in an opposing manner as the current forecast. Below normal temperatures typically result from
this setup in the South and East, while warmer themes are in association for parts of the North/West.”

Radiant’s current forecast for the 11-15 is warm in the SE just as is the 1-10. Will that change? Stay tuned to the models.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I wouldn't (& I personally don't) pay much attention or give much credence to NWP model forecasts of ENSO at this time of the year because they are typically atrocious until they're being initialized w/ SSTAs in the east-central Pacific near the equinox, hence the spring "predictability barrier". We're clearly moving in a direction that favors stronger +ENSO later this year & the base state as is was already on the cusp of being an El Nino.
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The next few months will be key but I'm not convinced yet we will see one form. The NWP model forecasts in February of 2018 did an excellent job of predicting the Nino that we saw develop. It's pretty tough though to know how things will shake out, just putting it out there that these models are showing a decline for 2019 to a neutral state just in time for hurricane season which would be very bad.

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snowlover91 said:
The next few months will be key but I'm not convinced yet we will see one form. The NWP model forecasts in February of 2018 did an excellent job of predicting the Nino that we saw develop. It's pretty tough though to know how things will shake out, just putting it out there that these models are showing a decline for 2019 to a neutral state just in time for hurricane season which would be very bad.

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Last year was one of the few times the forecast was reasonable at this lead, I wouldn't use this one example to try & inherently broad brush the models as remotely reliable before the early spring because most times they rarely are. Also keep in mind however the models already initialized w/ conditions in January while the IRI is still stuck in December on the first plot you showed which isn't exactly apples-apples.

Fading to neutral ENSO alone wouldn't be very bad, it's only one piece of the puzzle for this hurricane season, to suggest it would mean we could be in trouble ignores the initial state in the Atlantic and interannual tendencies in EP TC activity both of which don't favor as many TCs in the Atlantic. Not to mention the large-scale steering pattern is still tbd
 
Webberweather53 said:
Last year was one of the few times the forecast was reasonable at this lead, I wouldn't use this one example to try & inherently broad brush the models as remotely reliable before the early spring because most times they rarely are. Also keep in mind however the models already initialized w/ conditions in January while the IRI is still stuck in December on the first plot you showed which isn't exactly apples-apples.

Fading to neutral ENSO alone wouldn't be very bad, it's only one piece of the puzzle for this hurricane season, to suggest it would mean we could be in trouble ignores the initial state in the Atlantic and interannual tendencies in EP TC activity both of which don't favor as many TCs in the Atlantic. Not to mention the large-scale steering pattern is still tbd
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I'm not trying to broad brush the models I'm just stating that they were pretty good last year for predicting the outcome we saw. Fading to neutral ENSO for hurricane season is one piece of the puzzle but it can definitely help with providing a more favorable environment for TC formation whereas a weak to moderate El Nino would likely produce more of a hostile environment.
 
snowlover91 said:
I'm not trying to broad brush the models I'm just stating that they were pretty good last year for predicting the outcome we saw. Fading to neutral ENSO for hurricane season is one piece of the puzzle but it can definitely help with providing a more favorable environment for TC formation whereas a weak to moderate El Nino would likely produce more of a hostile environment.
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Ok? The Euro also nailed Sandy, but that doesn't mean we should automatically flock to it in every subsequent situation w/o looking at the circumstances at hand or realizing how the models do in other cases because base state initialization, i.e. whether or not we're starting in an El Nino, Neutral ENSO, or La Nina significantly effects NWP forecast skill. You were also clearly broad brushing the implications of ENSO wrt the hurricane seasonal forecast in saying that fading to neutral "would be bad." because aside from the fact that it's pretty subjective it also ignores a bunch of other factors that define how one perceives a hurricane season to be "good" or "bad". Conditions may not be any less hostile without a weak or moderate El Niño
 
This seems like a step in the right direction to me. Still have to wait a bit, but I like the ultimate direction here:

GFS.gif
Euro.gif

Still a good bit of contrast between the GEFS and Euro. Hopefully, the Euro is right. The GFS seems wonky with its amplitude. But either way, both eventually move into Phase 8/1.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Ok? The Euro also nailed Sandy, but that doesn't mean we should automatically flock to it in every subsequent situation w/o looking at the circumstances at hand or realizing how the models do in other cases because base state initialization, i.e. whether or not we're starting in an El Nino, Neutral ENSO, or La Nina significantly effects NWP forecast skill. You were also clearly broad brushing the implications of ENSO wrt the hurricane seasonal forecast in saying that fading to neutral "would be bad." because aside from the fact that it's pretty subjective it also ignores a bunch of other factors that define how one perceives a hurricane season to be "good" or "bad". Conditions may not be any less hostile without a weak or moderate El Niño
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Not going to argue/debate this here. We have both made our thoughts on the subject clear and it's best to leave it at that.

Looking at the latest FV3 maps it looks like it's still picking up on some ice potential around hours 150-156. Probably not much to see here but if this system adjusts south any or the precip moves in a bit quicker we could see some ice in some of the CAD regions.
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Ridge/trough combo continues to go west allowing for the SER to spread its wings, you better stop it ?
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Can’t help but think the recoil from all this warmth will be a frigid end to the month.

FV3 at least beats back the SER mid month.


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Webberweather53 said:
I wouldn't (& I personally don't) pay much attention or give much credence to NWP model forecasts of ENSO at this time of the year because they are typically atrocious until they're being initialized w/ SSTAs in the east-central Pacific near the equinox, hence the spring "predictability barrier". We're clearly moving in a direction that favors stronger +ENSO later this year & the base state as is was already on the cusp of being an El Nino.

I also don't like how the IRI initializes the models with monthly SSTAs then plots a tri-monthly forecast, the latter is almost always going to be lower due to averaging smoothing out extreme values, and I don't agree that the SSTAs for a monthly mean reached +1.0C earlier this winter, most datasets are much lower which is giving the illusion of "weakening" into the spring/summer when in reality it's not.
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Webber, got a question. If the euro mjo depiction is correct with mjo moving forward, could we still have some opportunities at cold and maybe winter weather in some parts of the south? Reason i ask is because its the first time this winter the mjo may get to colder stormier phases.
 
The evolution of H5 near and over NA isn't as horrendous as some of the previous runs. Talking about the GFS and FV-3. I haven't looked at the ensembles. I have seen some previous runs with a horrific SE ridge complex, but the new runs aren't quite that bad and in fact, they would allow for the possibility of some wintry weather for the upper southeast.
 
Rain Cold said:
The evolution of H5 near and over NA isn't as horrendous as some of the previous runs. Talking about the GFS and FV-3. I haven't looked at the ensembles. I have seen some previous runs with a horrific SE ridge complex, but the new runs aren't quite that bad and in fact, they would allow for the possibility of some wintry weather for the upper southeast.
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Today’s Euro I also thought was an improvement, later in the run the PNA pops positive and all the cold air in Canada is on the move further south. With all guidance now at least trending towards a better MJO phase, would expect to see colder runs. Plus, I cannot believe this February could possibly end up as warm as last year was.
 
Golf7575 said:
Webber, got a question. If the euro mjo depiction is correct with mjo moving forward, could we still have some opportunities at cold and maybe winter weather in some parts of the south? Reason i ask is because its the first time this winter the mjo may get to colder stormier phases.
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Imo, given what the tropical forcing looks like going forward, where we stand in the current AAM cycle (+AAM in the extratropics coupled with building +AAM in the tropics that'll eventually surge poleward into the subtropics (remember that +AAM = westerly momentum or anomalous westerly flow near the high-latitude surf zone = bad for high-latitude blocking) & the polar vortex intensifying significantly following the more recent SSWE, what will have to happen to break down this southeastern US ridge is we'll need a big vortex to get going over the Aleutian islands later in February and squash the Aleutian high that's been continuously rebuilding there time & time again. The pattern it would leave us with is far from ideal and would be limited on cold air relative to climo w/ a roaring NP jet plus it's not exactly favorable for overrunning events so the window we could score a storm would be thru the first week of March when our climatological window can legitimately support snow/ice, unless of course a massive block goes up over Greenland or Alaska. However, seeing as how we seem apt to withhold producing a -NAO in the lower-middle troposphere (ironically one did occur just in the upper troposphere lol) and/or if one is actually coming we won't be able to detect it until the medium range this might be our only option left to salvage something in the dying minutes of the winter.

In summary, we need a huge vortex to crank over the Aleutians to suppress the western US trough and give us any glimmer of hope to get a storm but said pattern still would be pretty meh. I'm just not confident that we're going to see much of a -NAO that we need to reinforce a trough over Atlantic/SE Canada and without the trough over the Kamchatka Peninsula digging much at all, it’s been anything but easy and will continue to be difficult to see the kind of high amplitude ridge we’d need to push the SER way out into the Atlantic and establish a healthy trough over the northern plains and lakes. The pattern going forward even with some favorable changes that are well within our grasp still looks like hot garbage.
 
Stormdoc said:
Today’s Euro I also thought was an improvement, later in the run the PNA pops positive and all the cold air in Canada is on the move further south. With all guidance now at least trending towards a better MJO phase, would expect to see colder runs. Plus, I cannot believe this February could possibly end up as warm as last year was.
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100% agree. That is what I have been counting on as well. Just came in here to post the 240 Euro map. Hopefully, the EPS will improve. This isn't nearly as bad as the direction we were staring down the other day. We can work with something like this:

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Rain Cold said:
100% agree. That is what I have been counting on as well. Just came in here to post the 240 Euro map. Hopefully, the EPS will improve. This isn't nearly as bad as the direction we were staring down the other day. We can work with something like this:

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This pattern favors cold chasing moisture until a blocking high goes up over Alaska or Greenland. Both would be nice
 
Webberweather53 said:
This pattern favors cold chasing moisture until a blocking high goes up over Alaska or Greenland. Both would be nice
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Yep, that is likely. I'd rather have that than a strong and anchored SE ridge, though. Even if you have a setup that predominately favors cold chasing moisture, as long as you have cold in the pattern nearby, timing something out, even a little something, is at least within the realm of possibility.
 
Ugh...
For the umpteenth day in a row the EPS continues to get worse as verification approaches beyond the medium range. Like clockwork the day 8-9 EPS of today looks much worse than the day 10 of yesterday
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NWS GSP going for a high of 78F on Thursday, that's 4 degrees above the daily record of 74 and within 4 of the all-time monthly record that was set when our climo is much warmer at the end of the month.
Isn't it funny how when the pattern turns mild we're extremely quick to shell out record highs, it's like the globe is warming or something.
What a revelation...
 
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