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Pattern Fabulous February

ATLwxfan said:
Hard to believe ATL will be in the 70’s next week. Gotta believe we will have some severe weather to follow.


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agree, Instability will definitely be elevated with that SER pumping in warm, moist air, get a artic front to combine with some of that instability and were dealing with some severe weather
 
Shawn said:
You don't want to see the sounding. It'd be a ZR storm from Hell for a lot of people with the low sitting there like that. Deep warm layer with temperatures well below freezing at the ground level. Temperatures 27-29 degrees and that.. even under heavier circumstances would be very bad since latent heating from the freezing process wouldn't overcome it.
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A December 02 look!
 
Sub X MME (63 member ensemble) has slightly colder than normal temps for a good part of the eastern and southern US weeks 3-4 in February.
a680adf3f4f1a8ce19000817118b01fb.jpg


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ATLwxfan said:
Hard to believe ATL will be in the 70’s next week. Gotta believe we will have some severe weather to follow.


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Takes a good but more than 70's to get a decent severe weather event. A juiced up southern stream is not one of them, neither is arctic air.
 
Pup12 said:
So I’m not familiar with CAD’s. Can they push into the Tennessee Valley? I can’t remember much in the way of ice in this area for 20 years or more.
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It takes a strong high in perfect position but January 29 2005 is one example. In that setup cold air wrapped around the Apps into northwest GA, eastern AL, and east TN and dammed against the Cumberland Plateau. That was the last significant ice storm for East TN, northwest GA, and eastern AL.


NWS Morristown .... Local Weather History For January 29th... In 2005, freezing rain glazed the area with 1/4-1/2" of ice, many power lines downed.

https://www.weather.gov/bmx/winter_01282005

https://www.weather.gov/ffc/istorm13005



012912.png



Location-of-the-Cumberland-Plateau-red-and-yellow-and-study-site-of-the-SAA-Forestry.png
 
WxWatch said:
Yeah but, we can't get "sucked" in. I'm even more "salty" with the models after the huge bust.
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Hey man. You were the 1st to call that system out and call it BS. You caved to the hype some but we all did. We all knew the bust potential was HUGE with an Arctic front supposedly leading moisture. That scenario never ends well for most of us and I will never trust another solution like that. Should have known better this time....

This setup = completely different.
 
It's warmer for our system around 180 this time, but honestly its just nice to have a system and a strong HP at this point.
 
cyclogent said:
It takes a strong high in perfect position but January 29 2005 is one example. In that setup cold air wrapped around the Apps into northwest GA, eastern AL, and east TN and dammed against the Cumberland Plateau. That was the last significant ice storm for East TN, northwest GA, and eastern AL.


NWS Morristown .... Local Weather History For January 29th... In 2005, freezing rain glazed the area with 1/4-1/2" of ice, many power lines downed.

https://www.weather.gov/bmx/winter_01282005

https://www.weather.gov/ffc/istorm13005



012912.png



Location-of-the-Cumberland-Plateau-red-and-yellow-and-study-site-of-the-SAA-Forestry.png
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I remember that icestorm very well, it was the highlight of that entire pathetic winter.
 
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