Stormlover
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Pattern Fabulous February
- Thread starter PEA_RIDGE
- Start date
Posted by JB.. the CFS
I don’t know until tropical tidbits comes out but it may be two separate storms back to back ... regardless it shows 24-36 inches across much of central and western NC and upstate SC with heavy amount surrounding ... but most certainly I would expect some to be ice and sleet and all that sort of stuff
Interesting development on the 18Z GEFS: the SER is MUCH weaker 2/12-15 and the SE is actually much colder than prior runs with near normal 2/12-14 (like the EPS has) even though the SER and SE warming later reappears. For now, I recommend we concentrate on 2/12-15 and see if future GEFS runs cool further then and not worry about later periods yet, which are less predictable anyway. This is how pattern changes often work into models. They often don't wait to near the end of the runs but instead start changing much earlier. This kind of thing happened one month ago. If 2/12-15 ends up drastically colder with much less SER, the later periods could very well follow suit and not be warm, themselves. Right now this is but one GEFS run...so not at all a trend yet. But let's see what the 0Z and later ones do.
Jon
Member
It’s snow depth change, but it includes sleet and mixed Ptype...
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Jessy89
Member
I think he means that about the -NAO which would in winter record territory had it actually verified as the models have predicted all winter.
Jon
Member
Yeah, it’s day 13-16. Actually shows snow depth of 24”+ in the triad so it will be interesting to see this clown map. Looks like a southern slider too, not a miller A.
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
That's an ice storm fueled by the flow given by the SER and passing ridges timed perfectly to the north. I find this more laughable than the NAM's dual TCs off of NC. Just fun to see.
Jessy89
Member
I wouldn’t get any hopes up on the 17th threat. For several days the fv3 was showing ice on feb 10th. Just to back off of it.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Well on the timescales we care about the most, yes low-level wind stress forcing right near the surface of the ocean where it influences the Ekman layer imparted by planetary scale waves is more important than the contribution from SSTs, but that doesn't mean the latter isn't important particularly on longer timescales when this atmospheric white noise becomes washed out and the reddened (lower frequency/longer timescale) response overturning circulations, multidecadal variability, etc is more effectively expressed. There's no particular crucial part in the N hem upper atmosphere (I presume you're referring to the upper troposphere here) that's necessarily "driving" the pattern per say but it's important to look at the location, juxtaposition, and strength of the waveguide (jet stream) and wave "sources" altering the jet (like tropical convection, Rossby Waves propagating over a mountain range, etc.,).
The real reason I continually refer to northeast Asia is because this is a wellspring for observed downstream discrepancies over North America-NE Pacific between the GEFS & EPS suites after this week and how the aforementioned wave energy is dispersed into our part of the world, also altering the strength, placement, and duration of the SE US ridge for example.
The handling of the E Asia trough around day 7-9 is a very clear source of model error that propagates downstream and forward in time.
Columnar heating distribution changes attributed to tropical convection that's tied to the MJO & ENSO is what ultimately "drives" mid-high latitude waves. This convection is virtually always present in some, way, shape, or form somewhere in/around Indo-West Pacific warmpool where the sea surface is sufficiently warm/moist to regularly destabilize the boundary layer to trigger deep convection at any given time at preferred spectrum of frequencies, which means it's actually "forcing" the pattern virtually all the time. The question actually is where the convection is located, how strong, at what spatial/temporal frequency, how will this convection interact w/ "standing wave" modes like ENSO, and if we think there may be a signal, will be able to detect it and furthermore if we don't detect anything, does that really mean the tropics aren't "driving" the pattern in some way? (the answer to this last question is obviously no).
Here, I think it's a combination of many factors that are forcing the pattern, where subseasonal tropical forcing is located at this time of the winter obviously isn't favorable in its own right and it doesn't help when you have an expansive eastern Hemisphere Hadley Cell which is being hastened by long-term trends in our background climate state & the fact we don't have a significant +ENSO event to at least temporarily quell it. The expansive Hadley Cell pushes wave fluxes from rossby waves and the waves themselves (including the subtropical highs like the SE US ridge at the edge of the Hadley-Ferrell Cell) poleward, strengthening the mid-latitude jet, making it harder to acquire frequent high-latitude blocking, etc. I'm only scratching the surface here btw these concepts run so much deeper than what I'm alluding to above.
I agree! That model is horrible IMO It tries showing snow behind every cold front, which pretty much never happens.......................
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
ForsythSnow
Moderator
If there was any fantasy storm to even try and call "The one", I would never pick this. It's so unrealistic and it's also so far out. I'm certain it will be gone in 4 hours too. Also, not to point at NC, but y'all have had your fun already. We haven't. I'd rather see something that benefits more of us too that isn't an ice storm either. Unfortunately, I don't think we will have enough time to pull something off this year unless a freak storm comes up.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Going from 70s Friday to 40s Saturday. I would not be shocked if there is a storm threat here next week.
Pretty much all the globals agree on a in-Situ CAD, here we go again with maybe some front end icing, been pretty active this year when it comes to ice for the foothills
Brent
Member
turned on the A/C... February is indeed fabulous!
??
The good news is that for the most part, the 0Z GEFS held onto the favorable changes in the SER for 2/12-13 that were on the 18Z GEFS. However, it largely backtracked to the prior runs for 2/14-5. I'd still watch this period for potential improvements on GEFS runs later today. Sometimes these occur in a zigzaggy way. Significant improvements followed by some backtracking followed by even better improvements then some backtracking, etc. We'll see.
Do you find that change off the west coast pretty significant ? Looks as if a ridge is trying to build around British Columbia
Only if this -NAO could happen, (presses down on the SER) but anyways get rid of that weak SER and start getting the +PNA to form, also keep the lower heights in the 50/50 area and you can maybe score something, this actually looks good for a icy setup, unfortunately this is so far out but Sum slight 
Indeed, good catch. Perhaps a good sign, itself. Now what will the Euro/EPS have in store?
Brent
Member
Just wait til February they said
I want a refund
I want a refund
It was the salesman pitch. It will get you everytime. ???
Rain, rain and more rain
GFS says build an ark.
GFS says build an ark.
Lol euro says winter is back in business, wtf lmao, and as you said +PNA is back and there’s not even a SER, just more of a WAR
Brent
Member
Record heat tomorrow this on Friday? This winter is the ultimate troll
Fv3 might be bad at H5, but it agrees with euro on a +PNA at hour 240, altho it quickly falls apart on the fv 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This is going exactly the way I've been saying we don't want it to go for the past few days.
Watch as the trough over the Kamchatka Peninsula lifts into NE Siberia as each successive run goes by, the ridge over the NE Pacific flattens and the trough downstream over the Rockies digs = more expansive/stronger SER. We need a North Atlantic block to save us and drop a trough over Atlantic/SE Canada
Watch as the trough over the Kamchatka Peninsula lifts into NE Siberia as each successive run goes by, the ridge over the NE Pacific flattens and the trough downstream over the Rockies digs = more expansive/stronger SER. We need a North Atlantic block to save us and drop a trough over Atlantic/SE Canada
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Atleast the op Euro and GFSv3 op looked good and cold after the 14th ish, it’s all we’ve got
Please read this post: https://southernwx.com/community/th...worse-than-you-think.509/page-194#post-159271
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The GEFS shows a larger "retrograding" MJO because the coupling between the atmosphere and underlying ocean is poor in the model, creating overzealous deep convection that rarely, if ever verifies. An equatorial Rossby Wave radiates westward from the convection it's just that in the GFS because there's more superfluous convection, the equatorial Rossby Wave is stronger which = MJO retrogrades more
The MJO can be thought of in first principles as a phenomena that manifests from the collective wave interference from other, smaller, higher frequency equatorial waves that comprise it like the aforementioned equatorial rossby, Inertio-gravity, mixed rossby gravity, and arguably most importantly the (atmospheric) equatorial Kelvin wave. Having a basic understanding of the dynamics of these waves, how they relate to the MJO, and what contribution the mid-latitudes has in triggering and dampening MJO waves actually goes a long way to grappling with situations like this where the MJO isn't continually propagating east.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
You could take this another step further by asking why the Rossby Waves/convection have really begun to amplify in the central Pacific.
Note how the Vp200 anomalies exhibit standing wave behavior & the low frequency VP200 finally projects onto the central Pacific. El Nino has arrived.
In laymans terms, this means too little too late for tha majority of the SE in regards to Winter weather (except a freak mid-march event). Correct? This could let the Southern Jet come active in time for severe season, esepcially in the favorable zones.. maybe less for the Carolinas with potential CAD towards April?
I just took a look at the long range on the models, and they are a massive dumpster fire for anyone hoping for winter weather.
On the plus side, there looks to be a couple decent shots at severe weather. And I wouldn't mind 70s and 80s two years in a row for my birthday (22nd).
On the plus side, there looks to be a couple decent shots at severe weather. And I wouldn't mind 70s and 80s two years in a row for my birthday (22nd).
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Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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GFS says pump the brakes on winters over talk!
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
It's obviously too little too late for most in terms of the "expected" impacts from ENSO before winter is over and the subtropical jet has been somewhat active as is this winter, westerly momentum is currently building in the tropics both because El Nino is legitimately coming on, and a previous bout of angular momentum earlier in the winter that propagated poleward is being refracted into the tropics depositing its +AAM there. This tropical +AAM (+AAM can be thought of as anomalous westerly flow in the atmosphere & vis versa w/ -AAM) will eventually propagate poleward thanks to transient mid-latitude eddies, becoming envisaged or realized as a stronger subtropical jet, when this occurs remains unbeknownst to me but it probably will happen within the next 3-5 weeks or so. Southern US (especially the lower MS Valley) actually experiences considerably more severe weather w/o an active southern jet, the only areas that really benefit are the southern high plains (west TX) & Florida, there's not much of a signal in either direction over the Carolinas.
You can clearly see the +AAM in the tropics on this diagram (in yellow & orange). Look how the previous bout of poleward propagating AAM all the way back in November reached the mid-latitudes and was refracted back towards the equator, it's only now reaching the tropics. Isn't it amazing how something that happened 3 months ago is still significantly affecting our pattern?
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Wave interference explains why ENSO for example is a "stationary" phenomena. When a downwelling Kelvin Wave triggered by westerly wind bursts in the central Pacific reaches the eastern boundary region (i.e. South America), it is reflected as a westward propagating equatorial Rossby Wave. The opposite is also true when a Rossby Wave reaches Indonesia, it's reflected as a Kelvin Wave! Let's say another westerly wind burst occurs triggering yet another Kelvin Wave while the equatorial Rossby waves continue propagating westward. The interference between this new Kelvin Wave and the equatorial Rossby Wave that came about due to the first Kelvin Wave reflecting off of South America actually creates the stationary/standing wave look to the sea surface temperature anomalies in the east-central equatorial Pacific.