Stormlover
Member
I don’t know until tropical tidbits comes out but it may be two separate storms back to back ... regardless it shows 24-36 inches across much of central and western NC and upstate SC with heavy amount surrounding ... but most certainly I would expect some to be ice and sleet and all that sort of stuffIs it ice snow or what?
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Is it ice snow or what?
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It’s snow depth change, but it includes sleet and mixed Ptype...
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If u say it about the cold than u must say it about the warm too
So far nothing showing up on tropical tidbits. Must be way off close to end of run
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Thanks. So, it sounds like you’re saying the very warm SW Atlantic SSTs are only at best a secondary influence vs planetary scale waves (PSWs). So, I’ll ask you about the PSWs. I’m assuming you’re largely talking about upper level winds. If not, please correct me. But if so, what is driving what in the upper atmosphere right now to allow for the predicted strong SER, —PNA, and -EPO ridge? Where in the N Hem is the upper atmosphere causing this combo to be predicted? Is there a crucial part of the N Hem? I noticed you referring to a trough over E Asia. Are the upper winds over that region about to be a major driver now? If so, why would it be the major driver and the SE ridge or some other region not be the major driver, for example? And I do know that tropical forcings like MJO and ENSO are often critical. Are they still the main driver? Regardless, I’d still like to know why you just emphasized the E Asia trough.
I agree! That model is horrible IMO It tries showing snow behind every cold front, which pretty much never happens.......................I wouldn’t get any hopes up on the 17th threat. For several days the fv3 was showing ice on feb 10th. Just to back off of it.
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GUYS WEENIE MAP ALERT FV3 GOES ABSOLUTLY INSANE
That's an ice storm fueled by the flow given by the SER and passing ridges timed perfectly to the north. I find this more laughable than the NAM's dual TCs off of NC. Just fun to see.
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If there was any fantasy storm to even try and call "The one", I would never pick this. It's so unrealistic and it's also so far out. I'm certain it will be gone in 4 hours too. Also, not to point at NC, but y'all have had your fun already. We haven't. I'd rather see something that benefits more of us too that isn't an ice storm either. Unfortunately, I don't think we will have enough time to pull something off this year unless a freak storm comes up.This is the one.
Interesting development on the 18Z GEFS: the SER is MUCH weaker 2/12-15 and the SE is actually much colder than prior runs with near normal 2/12-14 (like the EPS has) even though the SER and SE warming later reappears. For now, I recommend we concentrate on 2/12-15 and see if future GEFS runs cool further then and not worry about later periods yet, which are less predictable anyway. This is how pattern changes often work into models. They often don't wait to near the end of the runs but instead start changing much earlier. This kind of thing happened one month ago. If 2/12-15 ends up drastically colder with much less SER, the later periods could very well follow suit and not be warm, themselves. Right now this is but one GEFS run...so not at all a trend yet. But let's see what the 0Z and later ones do.
The good news is that for the most part, the 0Z GEFS held onto the favorable changes in the SER for 2/12-13 that were on the 18Z GEFS. However, it largely backtracked to the prior runs for 2/14-5. I'd still watch this period for potential improvements on GEFS runs later today. Sometimes these occur in a zigzaggy way. Significant improvements followed by some backtracking followed by even better improvements then some backtracking, etc. We'll see.
Do you find that change off the west coast pretty significant ? Looks as if a ridge is trying to build around British Columbia View attachment 14825
It was the salesman pitch. It will get you everytime. ???
The EPS hopefully and likely has the upper hand now. (The CMC and JMA totally suck imho as far as MJO prediction abilities in general, but that’s beside the point and they have tended to be somewhat closer to the EPS than the GEFS from my recall.) Despite the GEFS moving in the direction of the EPS, GEFS and EPS are still far different with the GEFS going backward into moderate amplitude phase 6 through 2/9 while the EPS is then into the COD. The GEFS then goes into high amplitude 7 and 8 while the EPS is in low amp 7, 8, and 1 (by the way GEFS has been horrible recently while EPS has been much steadier in comparison):
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The GEFS shows a larger "retrograding" MJO because the coupling between the atmosphere and underlying ocean is poor in the model, creating overzealous deep convection that rarely, if ever verifies. An equatorial Rossby Wave radiates westward from the convection it's just that in the GFS because there's more superfluous convection, the equatorial Rossby Wave is stronger which = MJO retrogrades more
The MJO can be thought of in first principles as a phenomena that manifests from the collective wave interference from other, smaller, higher frequency equatorial waves that comprise it like the aforementioned equatorial rossby, Inertio-gravity, mixed rossby gravity, and arguably most importantly the (atmospheric) equatorial Kelvin wave. Having a basic understanding of the dynamics of these waves, how they relate to the MJO, and what contribution the mid-latitudes has in triggering and dampening MJO waves actually goes a long way to grappling with situations like this where the MJO isn't continually propagating east.
You could take this another step further by asking why the Rossby Waves/convection have really begun to amplify in the central Pacific.
Note how the Vp200 anomalies exhibit standing wave behavior & the low frequency VP200 finally projects onto the central Pacific. El Nino has arrived.
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In laymans terms, this means too little too late for tha majority of the SE in regards to Winter weather (except a freak mid-march event). Correct? This could let the Southern Jet come active in time for severe season, esepcially in the favorable zones.. maybe less for the Carolinas with potential CAD towards April?
The GEFS shows a larger "retrograding" MJO because the coupling between the atmosphere and underlying ocean is poor in the model, creating overzealous deep convection that rarely, if ever verifies. An equatorial Rossby Wave radiates westward from the convection it's just that in the GFS because there's more superfluous convection, the equatorial Rossby Wave is stronger which = MJO retrogrades more
The MJO can be thought of in first principles as a phenomena that manifests from the collective wave interference from other, smaller, higher frequency equatorial waves that comprise it like the aforementioned equatorial rossby, Inertio-gravity, mixed rossby gravity, and arguably most importantly the (atmospheric) equatorial Kelvin wave. Having a basic understanding of the dynamics of these waves, how they relate to the MJO, and what contribution the mid-latitudes has in triggering and dampening MJO waves actually goes a long way to grappling with situations like this where the MJO isn't continually propagating east.