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Pattern Fabulous February

Myfrotho704_ said:
December repeat but colder at the sfc? Based off what fv is showing
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I was thinking the same thing. It ended up trending colder as we got close for Raleigh and to the north and west. A lot folks dismissed the FV then, but it was pretty accurate for where I am.
 
SD said:
You could draw some similarities. Kind of reminds me of the mid feb 2014 evolution but that's just me shooting from the hip and not really digging in to it

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That time frame probably isn't the best analog

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Robert West said:
Even IF it did happen, maybe it would trend colder at the last second like Feb 2014 did and get 3 inches of sleet. Yikes
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You don't want to see the sounding. It'd be a ZR storm from Hell for a lot of people with the low sitting there like that. Deep warm layer with temperatures well below freezing at the ground level. Temperatures 27-29 degrees and that.. even under heavier circumstances would be very bad since latent heating from the freezing process wouldn't overcome it.
 
I.e. what HM is saying below is important and essentially we need to develop a big Scandinavian high (SCAND)-Eurasian trough couplet to produce a big cold outbreak and associated surface anticyclone (because obviously cold air is dense and surface pressures rise in response) which triggers a positively signed east Asia Mountain Torque. This SCAND-Eurasian trough couplet is kicked off in part by our huge vortex over eastern North America via a game of proverbial atmospheric hot potato where a Rossby wave packet emanates from the huge PV lobe.

If you recall, the positively signed mountain torque (as also shown below) actually acts to decelerate earth's rotation forcing the atmosphere (in the form of the Pacific jet) to pick up the slack & extend further into the Pacific >>> bigger Aleutian Low. The larger Aleutian Low (at least relative to the previous period) shifts the waves downstream further east, in particular the big Rockies trough we see in the first week or so of February moves eastward in response or at least isn't anywhere near as prominent.

Notice the big surface high descending towards Manchuria (northern China) & Mongolia.

The huge Hadley Cells in the eastern hemisphere which are partially a function of AGW + lack of a formidable NINO are gonna try to screw w/ this favorable large-scale signaling
gfs-ens_mslpaNormMean_asia_7.png


Positive Mountain Torque Diagram.png

Screen Shot 2019-01-30 at 7.33.53 PM.png
 
SD said:
You could draw some similarities. Kind of reminds me of the mid feb 2014 evolution but that's just me shooting from the hip and not really digging in to it

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I would agree with that. Low that developed off an arctic boundary over I-10
 
So I’m not familiar with CAD’s. Can they push into the Tennessee Valley? I can’t remember much in the way of ice in this area for 20 years or more.
 
Pup12 said:
So I’m not familiar with CAD’s. Can they push into the Tennessee Valley? I can’t remember much in the way of ice in this area for 20 years or more.
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CAD exists east of the mountains as shallow cold air is trapped against the apps. A cold high over roughly upstate New York funnels in cold dry shallow air and locks it in
 
Hard to believe ATL will be in the 70’s next week. Gotta believe we will have some severe weather to follow.


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